upstream engineering centre ocean predictions and the oil and gas industry - room for improvement?...
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Upstream Engineering Centre
Ocean predictions and the oil and gas industry - room for improvement?
Colin GrantMetocean Technical Authority
OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011
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Ocean predictions and the oil & gas industry
• Ocean predictions have uses in 3 main areas in the industry
− Forecasts – real time operations and short term planning (1 to 5 day)
− Reanalysis products / hindcasts – operational planning
− “weather windows”
− Databases to establish design criteria such as 100 year and 10,000 year values
OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011
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How useful are present ocean predictions?
• Waves
− Generally acceptable quality for both short term forecasts and as hindcast databases. Suitable calibration with measured data permits use for design studies and operability analyses.
• Currents
− Lack of accuracy in temporal comparisons – frequently miss peak events when compared to measured data. Issues of sampling. Some skill in certain regions on a climatological basis. Used with care by the industry, for design studies, often after calibration & adjustment.
• Water level
− Useful products for design when combined with extreme wave predictions to establish total water levels. Setting of platform decks.
• Temperatures & Salinity
− Industry not a major user. Hindcast archives used for design (flow assurance issues – hydrate formation etc). Oil spill weathering issues
• Sea ice conditions
− Increasingly important with the move towards Arctic environments
OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011
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Wave and current comparisons with data
OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011
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Major challenges & requirements
• Industry moving to deeper water and arctic areas.
• Deep water operations require knowledge of currents through the water column, both as forecasts and as hindcast databases.
− Riser and mooring design and control
− Combinations of parameters for response-based analyses using joint probabilities of key parameters
− Winds, waves & currents
− Wave crests & water levels
− Waves, currents and sea ice
• Example
− Gulf of Mexico
OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011
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Gulf of Mexico - Loop & Eddy Forecasts
OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011
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Macondo Oil Spill
OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011
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Macondo oil spill modeling
• Much modeling activity both by BP and the US Govt
• BP’s in-house oil spill model is being standardised on SINTEF’s “Marine Environmental Modelling Workbench”
− OSCAR – Oil Spill Contingency & Response
− DREAM – Dose-related Risk & Effects Assessment Model
− DEEPBLOW
• Require initialisation and boundary conditions from atmospheric and ocean models in order to run effectively
• Several other oil spill modelling providers e.g. ASA, BMT etc
http://www.sintef.no/static/ch/environment/numerical_modelling.htm
OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011
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Scenario – West of Shetland spill
• “My Ocean” Resource
• Time res – Hourly (+ daily mean)
• Spatial res - 0.1 deg
− (approx 6km)
• Depth
− Numerous levels to 600m
• Variables
− N & E Velocity
− Salinity
− Temperature
− Sea surface height above geoid
OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011
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West of Shetland complexity
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0Longitude (W )
59.0
59.5
60.0
60.5
61.0
61.5
62.0
Latit
ude
W
X
Y
Z
Z
Wyville Thomson Ridge
M2
M3
M4
eddy
M1
cloud
MN
AW
NAW
8 9 10 11 Co
OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011
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Issues for oil spill modelling
• Availability of input data varies regionally
• Prediction of deep water oil spill trajectories is now a 3D dispersion problem
• Global models e.g. US Navy HYCOM – daily mean values
− Nest finer models from global models
• Use the ocean model that the regulator uses to enhance acceptability?
− Australia - Blue Link CSIRO / BoM / RAN
• BP long term collaboration with Imperial College, London
− ReEMS - Regional Environmental Monitoring System
− Open source codes
− WRF + ROMS (including sea ice) + SWAN + NOAH
− Main focus is climate change but also being used to assist in oil spill modeling
− Caspian used as a test bed (4km resolution)
− Work on Mediterranean, West Africa, Brazil etc
OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011
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The future of ocean prediction?
• Linking modelling with observations
− In-situ, remotely sensed (satellite, aerial, HF radar etc)
− Formatting and geo-referencing issues
− Data assimilation
• Product development and dissemination
− Web / GIS based
− User friendly – aimed at decision makers, not specialists
• Integrated approaches to observation, forecasting and ultimately end user problem solving.
OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011
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Questions
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