unece, 6-9 may 2014, geneva

UNECE, 6-9 May 2014, Geneva

Inclusion of NOE in the Dutch National Accounts

Content

– Background– Scope– Methodology– Results

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Background

– NA need to be exhaustive– Starting the 2010 ESA revision illegal activities are

included– Other non-observed economic activities were already

covered in the Dutch National Accounts

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Non-observed economy

Scope is arbitrary.

Five sub-categories:1.Underground production2.Illegal production3.Informal sector production4.Household production for own final use5.Production missed due to deficiencies in data collection program

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Methodology

For underground and white spots built upon the existing methodology, estimates for illegal are completely new after revision.

Activity specific method. Based upon many ad hoc research findings and additional assumptions.

During the integration phase corrected for double counting.

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Methodology – example prostitution

The consumption is estimated using:-Number of prostitutes -> 25.000 in 1999-Number of working weeks a year -> 40-Average price per visit -> € 50 in 2008-Number of clients per week -> 20

Consumption in 1995 = 520 mln eurosConsumption in 2013 = 869 mln euros

Adjustements are made for imports and exports, and estimates for intermediate use are calculated following previous methods.

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Results – prostitution activities

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Results - sensitivity

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Results

Table 4.1 Estimates for various underground activities, 2010

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Results

Table 4.3 Estimates white spots, 2010

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Results – Effects on GVA, 2010

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Discussion and conclusions

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– NOE is hidden by nature, resulting estimates are subject to significant uncertainty.

– Only estimates for the most important activities– Challenging to construct time series

Thank you

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Arjan BruilStatistics Netherlandsa.bruil@cbs.nl+3170 337 4531