transportation & energypanos/444/2.cee444_trans... · 2012. 8. 29. · transportation &...

TRANSPORTATION & ENERGYTRANSPORTATION  &  ENERGYFundamentals and

Comparisons

Panos D. Prevedouros, PhDProfessor of Transportation

Department of Civil Engineeringpdp@hawaii.edu

Presented at Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), April 25, 2012 

O U T L I N EO U T L I N E

Change is the Only ConstantChange is the Only Constant

Transportation is EverywhereTransportation is Everywhere

T t ti d ETransportation and Energy

Summary

CHANGE  IS  THE  ONLY  CONSTANT

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TRANSPORTATION’SEVERYWHERE!

The relationships between transportation and the economy are very complex and poorly understood.

Transportation is a massive enterprise with substantial direct and indirect effects on economic productivity anddirect and indirect effects on economic productivity and 

economic growth. 

Transportation industries—the provision of transportation services, the manufacture of vehicles, and the construction of infrastructure—are major economic activities in themselvesare major economic activities in themselves

Transportation is an enabler of economic activity and a facilitator of international trade. 

Key Transportation Indicators, National Research Council, USA, 2002

MEANS TO OVERCOME DISTANCE FOR…

• Commuters• GoodsGoods• Military• Services• Tourism• Business

f l k• Life style  takes you to:• Shopping Center• Restaurant

h• Beach• Doctor• Amusement Park…

INFRASTRUCTURE

• Roads

• Bridges

• Tunnels

• Railwaysy

• Airports, ATC

• HarborsHarbors

• Construction Machines and Equipment

• DepotsDepots

• Hangars

• Yards• Yards

• Intermodal Links

VEHICLES• Bicycles, mopeds, motorcycles, 3‐wheelers

• Cars, vans, pickups, other light duty vehicles

• Buses, trucks, other heavy duty vehicles

• Light, heavy, intercity and high speed trains

• Aircraft; Marine Vessels; Specialized vehicles

PEOPLE

• Logistics staffAd i i t t i t• Administrators, managers, investors

• Drivers, pilots, captains, operators, conductors, police• Engineers designers foremen and construction crewsEngineers, designers, foremen and construction crews• Maintenance and repair staff• Technology development, R&D, University staffgy p y• Politicians and political appointees• People in mitigation of trans. problems

• Noise• Pollution• Crashes• Regulations• Disputes

ENERGY  &  FUELS

• Fuels: civilian or military use, export

• Electric power: civilian or military use, export

• Refineries

• Power plants

• Mines, oil platforms, exploration (e.g., fracking)

MATERIALS

• Aggregate Cemex is the world's third‐bi k I• Cement

• Steel, metals, alloys

biggest cement‐maker. It comes from Mexico, it is 105 years old, it employs 

• Glass

• Water

26,000 people, and its 2004 turnover was $8 Billion.

• Lubricants

• Asphalt

SECURITY

• TSA, Police

• TerrorismTerrorism

• Warning Systems

• Disaster Resilience• Disaster Resilience

• Disaster Recovery

SPORTS

• Marathons and bike races or roadways

b ilb d i l• Car, canoe, boat, sailboat and airplane races

• Monaco, Las Vegas, etc. on street Grand Prix

• Raceway development and events

TRAUMA CENTERS• Treat victims of crashes

• Other victims in transportation … Worldwide, an estimated 1.2 million people are killed in road crashes each year

escalators, elevators, sidewalks

• Victims of processes related to 

in road crashes each year and 50 million are injured. (WHO, 2010)

transportation … from ore extraction to make rails or bridges … to sports i j iinjuries

Ab t 8% f

Transportation may be ~1/3 of an economyAbout 8% of U.S. labor has a direct transp. job: p jTruck, bus or taxi driver, pilot, etc.

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ENERGYENERGY

TRANSPORTATION AND ENERGYTRANSPORTATION  AND  ENERGY

R = (3B + T)ER = (3B + T)

• R = Requirements of healthy humans in an• R = Requirements of healthy humans in an orderly and peaceful environment

• B = Basics: Food, Water, Shelter

• T = Transportation• T = Transportation

• E = Energy  sets the pace for B and T

• (Law and Order,  Medicine/Health Care,  Defense, Communications,  Recreation)

Sustainability  Blocks

FOOD WATER SHELTER TRANS‐PORT‐

INFRASTRUCTUREPORT‐ATION

MATERIALS FUELS ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

P O W E R (HP, KW, …)

LAWS POLICIES RULES FEES TAXES TARIFFS

MATERIALS FUELS, ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

LAWS, POLICIES, RULES, FEES, TAXES, TARIFFS

MIT Professor Dennis Meadows: In 1998 we had the dot‐com bubble bust. In 2008 we had the housing bubble bust. Both proved our 

primitive understanding of bubbles. We now form a new bubble in p gpopulation, and in material and energy consumption.

In 1972, a team of expertsteam of experts 

from MIT presented a 

db kigroundbreaking report called The Limits to Growth. 

In 2012 Australian 

physicist and sustainability analyst Graham Turner updated it pwith data from 1970 to 2000

Demand for energy: 2x in 40 years

Clean energy is growing…

but each one… but each one has its own set of 

problems (especially these 

two) …

Dependence on fossil fuels will continue 

Reserves are big… so is the pressure to not use them 

EV’s and turbines depend or “rare earth”

EV: Big news.

Where is the demand?demand?

Did CAFE andDid CAFE and the cost of renewables

kill it?

Some changes are obviousare obvious, but their i iimpact is modest.

For Energy and TransportationFor Energy and Transportation, the old world is about i l hincremental change.

New World holds promise for the next leap forward.p

Perhaps the next “wave” is about Power

PowerRevolution

RoboticsGenetics

Schumpeter: Kondratiev wave, K‐wave

Can BRIC reachCan BRIC reach  1st world living standards?standards?

Environmentalists are fiddling while Rome burns,” says Vinod Khosla, founder of Khosla Ventures, a ,Silicon Valley venture‐capital firm.

“Environmentalists get in the way with silly stuff like asking people to

… VinodK lwith silly stuff like asking people to 

walk more, drive less. That is an increment of 1‐2% change. We need 1,000% change if billions of people 

Kosla says… No!

in China and India are to enjoy a Western, energy‐rich lifestyle.” 

Forget today’s green technologies An energyForget today s green technologies like electric cars, wind turbines, solar cells and smart grids. None meets what Khosla calls the 

gybreak‐

through is“Chindia price”—the price at which people in China and India will buy them without a subsidy. “Everything’s a toy until it reaches

through is necessary.

Everything s a toy until it reaches that point.” (Mar. 10, 2011)

Transportation l h b

Transportationanalysis has been ignoring the energy d d f

Economy Energy dependency for too long…

y Energy

Transportation … with great risk for changing

Economy Energy

changing Good Life to Great MessEconomy Energy Great Mess

What Can We Do About It? …

Energy and LCAEnergy and LCA

Life Cycle Models

Cradle to Well toCradle to Grave

Well to Pump

Vehicle Cycle  Fuel Cycle

Urban Mode Sustainability Scores

Sustainability Dimensions

ICEV    HEV   FCV     EV       PHEV  GPT   GSUV   DB      BRT    CS CS

Camry Prius Clarity Leaf Volt F‐150 Explorer New flyer New flyer Camry Prius

Environment   0.483 0.637  0.803 0.642 0.606 0.145 0.492 0.717 0.860 0.907 0.959

Technology  0.450 0.500 0.408 0.553 0.471 0.387 0.489 0.628 0.669 0.561 0.590

Energy  0.388 0.572 0.545 0.462 0.541 0.019 0.324 0.673 0.908 0.956 0.999

Economy 0.341 0.385 0.485 0.557 0.454 0.193 0.354 0.326 0.486 0.578 0.561

Users 0.344 0.347 0.291 0.129 0.354 0.429 0.402 0.250 0.228 0.344 0.347

Overall Sustainability 

Index40.1% 48.8% 50.6% 46.8% 48.5% 23.4% 41.2% 51.9% 63.0% 66.9% 69.3%

Ranking 10 6 5 8 7 11 9 4 3 2 1

Regional Sustainability Scores

1 000

Environment 

0.600

0.800

1.000

0.200

0.400Technology Users

Chicago0.000

ChicagoAtlantaOptimus

Energy Economy 

Thank YouThank You

Panos D. Prevedouros, PhDProfessor of Transportation

Department of Civil Engineeringpdp@hawaii.edu