“towards a post-ethnic future” presentation by joel kotkin, irvine senior fellow, new america...
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“Towards a Post-Ethnic Future”“Towards a Post-Ethnic Future”
Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Irvine Senior Fellow, New America Foundation,
CRE High Level Conference Park City, UtahJuly 15, 2006
Essence of Post-Ethnic VisionEssence of Post-Ethnic Vision
“America is the Race of Races”
Walt Whitman,Leaves of Grass, 1855
Post-Ethnic PerspectivesPost-Ethnic Perspectives• New immigrant waves have
always unsettled cultural norms; reshaped economic and political life
• Over time, a new synthesis emerged, with addition of newcomers
• Current wave unprecedented in diversity
• Newcomers reshaping economy, society
• Long-term: Emergence of a new, post-ethnic, post-racial perspective
The First Wave 1640-1840The First Wave 1640-1840
• Germans constituted close to a majority in colonial Pennsylvania
• Non-English accounted for one-third of signers of Declaration of Independence
• American Revolution accelerated disestablishment of Anglican Church and greater religious diversity
Colonial Observations: Colonial Observations: “Why should
Pennsylvania, founded by the English, be becoming a Colony of Aliens, who will shortly be so numerous as to Germanize us instead of our Anglifying them?
-Benjamin Franklin
Early American Observations:Early American Observations:
“…hordes of wild Irishmen [and] the turbulent and disorderly of all parts of the world [who] come here with a view to disturb our tranquility…”
-Harrison Otis of Massachusetts
calling for a ban on immigration for
Europe
Second Wave Immigration (1840-1880)Second Wave Immigration (1840-1880)• Massive wave of German
and Irish immigration
• Key to settlement of many eastern cities as well as the Midwest
• Reaction: Rise of Know-Nothing Movement
• Immigrants spark industrial revolution, both providing labor and expertise
Third Wave Immigration (1880-1920)Third Wave Immigration (1880-1920)
• Highest percentage of foreign born population
• New large immigration from outside Western Europe, predominately Italy, the Balkans, Eastern Europe, as well as Asia
• New immigrants dominate politics in many big cities, spark new industries such as garments, movies, intensive agriculture, fishing and franchise banking
Third Wave ReactionsThird Wave Reactions
• Powerful nativist reaction; what Henry James called “this sense of dispossession” for old Anglo elite
• Italians described in 1875 by New York Times as “the Chinese of Europe”, adding it was “perhaps hopeless to civilize , or keeping them in order, except by the arm of the law”
Science Gets into the ActScience Gets into the Act
Psychologist Henry Goddard examining immigrants at Ellis Island, 1912
87% of Russians, 80% of Hungarians, 79% of Italians, 83% of Jews classified as “feeble-minded”
The Current Wave (1970-today) is more of the same and even more…The Current Wave (1970-today) is more of the same and even more…
• Immigrants Drive Next 100 Million by 2050…key to divergence from Europe, east Asia
• Ethnic diversity has become wider and deeper
• Immigrants spark revival in urban and some suburban economies
• Economy more complex and more difficult for less skilled immigrants
• Mass media, telecommunications popular culture accelerate cultural mixture yet allow for maintenance of cultural ties abroad
• Long term Perspective: Post-ethnic future
9.210.3
13.5
11.610.3
9.7 9.6
14.1
19.8
32.5
13.914.214.8
13.614.7
13.2
11.6
8.8
6.9
5.44.7
6.2
7.9
11.5
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002
Foreign Born Population in millions
Percent of Total Population64% Increase
U.S. Census Bureau, 2000
Immigration Is Driving American DemographyImmigration Is Driving American Demography
U.S. Census Bureau, 2002 Population Estimates
44%50%
69%
1990'S Immigration
1990's Immigration plusbirths
1990's Immigration plusbirths to all immigrants
US Pop. Growth 1990’s Immigrants Births to 1990’s Immigrants
Share of Pop. Growth
25,572 11,206 44%
25,572 11,206 1,663 50%
Immigrants and Their Offspring Drove Over Half of the Immigrants and Their Offspring Drove Over Half of the Country’s Growth During the 1990’s…Country’s Growth During the 1990’s…
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050
More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050
Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope
Minorities Drive the Next 100 MillionMinorities Drive the Next 100 Million
Source: McLeod (1996)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
White Black Hispanic Asian AmericanIndian
1995 2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
U.S. Australia Japan Korea UK Canada Germany
Immigrants help drive higher birthrates Plunging Birthrates/Aging Populations
Immigrants help drive higher birthrates Plunging Birthrates/Aging Populations
Source – indexmundi.com
Birth Rates per 1000
Healthier Long Term Demographics—a Younger Future
Population Growth Rates, 2004
Healthier Long Term Demographics—a Younger Future
Population Growth Rates, 2004
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00
U.S.Canada
Australia
China
Korea
U.K.Japan
Germany
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
U.S.Japan
Canada
U.K.Korea
China
Australia
Germany
2020 2050
Getting Older SlowerGetting Older Slower
Population Over 65
Source: CIA
50%50%
Built Before 2000 Built After 2000Northeast Midwest West South Total
6.4
25.7
58.9In 2030, about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop
will have been built after 2000.
In 2030, about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop
will have been built after 2000.
Source: Toward a New Metropolis: The Opportunity to Rebuild America, p.v
Regional ImpactRegional Impact
• Strong Presence in key urban areas
• Rapid Movement into suburbs
• Increasing presence in South, Intermountain West and other non-traditional immigrant areas
Area 2000 Population Net Change 1990 - 2000
Percent of Net Change Due to Nonwhite Pop.
Growth
United States 281,421,906 32,712,033 65%Northeast 53,594,378 2,785,149 100%Midwest 64,392,776 4,724,144 62%South 100,236,820 14,790,890 52%West 63,197,932 10,411,850 69%North Carolina
8,049,313 1,420,676 52%
Net Population Change Attributable to Non-White Population Growth, April 1, 1990 to April 1, 2000
Net Population Change Attributable to Non-White Population Growth, April 1, 1990 to April 1, 2000
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000 Redistricting Data (P.L. 94-171) Summary File and U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Census
“Majority Minority” States“Majority Minority” States
Hispanic Magnet States In the U.S. , 2000 Census
1990 - 2000 Greatest Hispanic Gainers1990 - 2000 Greatest Hispanic Gainers
1. Los Angeles 1,819,370
2. New York 992,185
3. Chicago 600,810
4. Dallas 594,836
5. Houston 575,098
6. Miami 501,543
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
California Nevada Michigan
Under 25 25-44 45-64 65+
Growth by Age, 2000-2010Growth by Age, 2000-2010
Source: William H. Frey
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Up-and-Coming Hispanic Growth MagnetsUp-and-Coming Hispanic Growth Magnets
0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700%
11. Salt Lake City
10. Grand Rapids
9. Reno
8. Minn-St.Paul
7. Orlando
6. Portland, OR
5. Las Vegas
4. Atlanta
3. Raleigh
2. Charlotte
1. Greensboro
2000 -- Populations greater than 50,000
The New Melting PotRanked by Percentage Change
of Immigrants, 1994-99
The New Melting PotRanked by Percentage Change
of Immigrants, 1994-99State Growth
North Carolina 73
Nevada 60
Kansas 54
Indiana 50
Minnesota 43
Virginia 40Maryland 39Arizona 35Utah 31Oregon 26
North CarolinaNet Population Change by Race, 1990-2000
North CarolinaNet Population Change by Race, 1990-2000
Total 8,049,313 1,420,676 21.4
White 5,647,155 676,028 18.6
Black 1,723,301 274,159 18.9
Native American 95,333 16,799 20.8
Asian 112,416 63,799 131.2
Pacific Islander 3,165 1,189 68.2
Hispanic 378,963 302,237 393.9
Other 9,015 6,896 325.4
U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas
Peo
ple
(mill
ions
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1999
Suburban Urban Rural
1950-1999Millions
Minorities to suburbsMinorities to suburbs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
All Races NH Whites All Minorities NH Blacks NH Asians Hispanics
1990 2000
Percentage of Population Residing In Suburbs by Race/Ethnicity 1990-2000
The San Fernando Valley is now the
Mestizo Valley.The San Fernando Valley is now the
Mestizo Valley.3.5%0.2%
0.1%
9.3%45.0%
3.6%
37.8%
0.2%
White 45%
American Indian and AlaskaNative 0.2%
Hispanic 37.8%
Black or African American3.6%
Pacific Islander 0.1%
Asian 9.3%
Other Race 0.2%
2 Or More Races 3.5%
Latinos Dominate New Demographics in the Inland Empire of California
Latinos Dominate New Demographics in the Inland Empire of California
18.63 26.5037.76
0%10%
20%30%
40%
50%60%
70%80%
90%
100%
1980 1990 2000
Hispanic Population
Total Population
Source: Census 2000 analyzed by the Social Science Data Analysis Network (SSDAN).
Demographic Change in Bergen-PassaicDemographic Change in Bergen-Passaic
Diversity in Houston’s fast growing suburbs
Diversity in Houston’s fast growing suburbs
Source: U.S. Census
Fort Bend County, Texas United States
Economic Impacts of New ImmigrationEconomic Impacts of New Immigration• Fast-growing retail
markets
• The New American Family
• Increase in home ownership
• Strong in high-wage and low-wage economies
• Possible impact on class dynamics
Gross Product Comparisons, 2003 (in Billions) World rankWorld rank
11
22
33
(6)(6)
44
55
66
77
United States
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
France
U.S. Ethnic
Italy
China
$10,882
$4,326
$1,795
$2,401
$1,748
$1,685
$1,466
$1,410
Source: World Bank Indicators database, World Bank, September 2004 and Selig Center for Economic Growth, University of Georgia “The Multicultural Economy 2003”
If the U.S. ethnic purchasing power was represented separately, it would If the U.S. ethnic purchasing power was represented separately, it would be the 6be the 6thth largest national economy in the world largest national economy in the worldIf the U.S. ethnic purchasing power was represented separately, it would If the U.S. ethnic purchasing power was represented separately, it would be the 6be the 6thth largest national economy in the world largest national economy in the world
Gross Product Comparisons, 2003 (in Billions) World rankWorld rank
Source: World Bank Indicators database, World Bank, September 2004 and Selig Center for Economic Growth, University of Georgia “The Multicultural Economy 2003”
If the U.S. Hispanic purchasing power was represented separately, it If the U.S. Hispanic purchasing power was represented separately, it would be the largest Latin American economy in the world.would be the largest Latin American economy in the world.If the U.S. Hispanic purchasing power was represented separately, it If the U.S. Hispanic purchasing power was represented separately, it would be the largest Latin American economy in the world.would be the largest Latin American economy in the world.
1010
1515
3535
(1)(1)
4040
4444
4646
U.S. Hispanic
Mexico
Brazil
Argentina
Venezuela
Colombia
Chile
Peru
$653
$626
$130
$492
$85
$78
$72
$61 5151
Ethnic Purchasing Power More Than Doubled Since 1990Ethnic Purchasing Power More Than Doubled Since 1990
Source: Selig Center for Economic Growth, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia (2004)
Spending Power by Ethnic Groups (in Billions) 1990 – 2004 with 2009 projectionsSpending Power by Ethnic Groups (in Billions) 1990 – 2004 with 2009 projections
$118
$222
$318
$363.2
$686.3
$723.1
$528.2
$992.3
$964.6
1990 2004 2009
African American
U.S. Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander
However, there are challenges to greater entryway into mainstream American society.
Among the most serious challenges is achieving homeownership and business ownership—the cornerstone of the American Dream.
Political issues also abound, from overcoming the traditional black/white racial politics to the reaction to 9-11
In Short: Latinos and other immigrants are on their way to reaching the
American Mainstream
In Short: Latinos and other immigrants are on their way to reaching the
American Mainstream
Families on the RiseFamilies on the Rise
-2.30% -1.80%
5.70%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Analysis by William Frey
Whose Kids?Traditional Family Households
Whose Kids?Traditional Family Households
22.8%
16.0%
33.4%35.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
White Black Asian Hispanic
Analysis by William Frey
Strong Household Growth Has Driven the Increase in Minority
Homeowners Since 1994
Strong Household Growth Has Driven the Increase in Minority
Homeowners Since 1994
0
1
2
3
4
5
Asians/Others Blacks Hispanics Whites
Contribution of household growth Contribution of rising homeownership rate
Millions of Homeowners
1. Garcia
2. Lee
3. Rodriguez
4. Kim
5. Hernandez
6. Lopez
7. Gonzalez
8. Martinez
9. Smith
10. Perez
1. Garcia
2. Hernandez
3. Lopez
4. Martinez
5. Smith
6. Gonzalez
7. Rodriguez
8. Lee
9. Kim
10. Johnson
1. Nguyen
2. Wong
3. Lee
4. Chen
5. Tran
6. Johnson
7. Smith
8. Singh
9. Garcia
10. Martinez
Northern California Southern California Los Angeles County
Source: California Association of REALTORS
Top Ten Home-Buyer Surnames (2000)Top Ten Home-Buyer Surnames (2000)
57%
65%
57%
41% 39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
AllHouseholds
White Asian Latino Black
Source: California Budget Project analysis of the Current Population Survey 2000
Fewer than half of California’s Latino-headed households owned their own homes (41%).
The national average is 68%.
Fewer than half of California’s Latino-headed households owned their own homes (41%).
The national average is 68%.
California's Homeownership Rates by Ethnicity (2000)
Source: William H. Frey; Milken Institute
Class Distinctions:
Median Household Income, 1999 Class Distinctions:
Median Household Income, 1999
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Black Hispanic White
Married Couples Male Head Female Head
Earnings (in Thousands)
Educational Attainment by RaceAge 25-64, Los Angeles Metro
Educational Attainment by RaceAge 25-64, Los Angeles Metro
Less than High School
High School Grad Some College College Grad
White Black Asian Hispanic
Towards the Future: Post-Ethnic AmericaTowards the Future: Post-Ethnic America
• Rapid Growth of Mixed Race couples particularly with 2nd Generation
• Latinos and Asians “mess up” being white
• Universal trend towards English dominance
• Cultural values overwhelm ethnic ones
• America emerges, intact, just more mestizo in its culture
When the kids get together…something happens…
When the kids get together…something happens…
• Mixed race designation is officially at 1.3 percent
• But intermarriage rates are up, particularly in second generation
• Mixed race portion of population should explode over the next decade
Percentage of Marriages That Are Mixed Race
Breakout of Mixed-Race Combinations in Selected States
Intermarriage rates in Los Angeles Five County area
Intermarriage rates in Los Angeles Five County area
31.23%
34.14%
7.26%11.50%
22.12%
30.60%
5.14%
15.93%
8.31%
5.45%
8.61%
6.34%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
US bornLatino
Foreign bornLatino
US bornAsian
Foreign bornAsian
AfricanAmerican
US bornWhite
Male Female
61%18%
16%
5%
White Hispanic
African American Asian
70%
13%
13%
4%
Under 18 Population
The Under 18 Population Has Already Become very The Under 18 Population Has Already Become very Multicultural…Multicultural…
Source: Census 2000
Total Population
The Millennial Generation is the Most Diverse in American HistoryThe Millennial Generation is the Most Diverse in American History
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91
Percent of U.S. Population That Is African American, Hispanic, Asian Pacific Islander, American Percent of U.S. Population That Is African American, Hispanic, Asian Pacific Islander, American Indian, and Other; By Age – December 2004Indian, and Other; By Age – December 2004
Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Dec. 2004
Echo Boomers
Generation X
Baby Boomers
Pre-Baby Boomers
Being White is not what it used to be.Being White is not what it used to be.• 50% of Latinos call themselves white
• Asians out-perform “majority” in terms of occupation, income and education
• Two-thirds of 28 million foreign born people in 2000 consider themselves white, up from half in 1990
A Majority of Younger Hispanics are Already Second Generation
60%
15%17%
53%
23%
32%
<19 Years 19+ Years
Foreign Born
2nd Generation
3rd Generation
Current Population Survey, US Census Bureau, 2002
85%
In the Next Fifteen Years, 2nd Generation Will Dominate Growth
25%
45% 47%
28% 28%27%
1970 to 2000 2000 to 2020
1st Generation
2nd Generation
3rd Generation
Pew Hispanic Center, 2002
.
Spanish language fluency is lost by the third generation.
% Speaking English / Spanish Well or Very Well
99 98 100 100
68
91
73
15
Total 1.5 Generation Second Generation Third Generation
English
Spanish
Q11/12: Would you say you speak English/Spanish…?
Base: Total
Post-ethnicity emerges…Post-ethnicity emerges…
• A survey by New American Dimensions of LA and NYC Latino youths finds culture more important than race
• Spanish language TV ventures into English
• Cross-culture Latino music, food, some Asian influence move into mainstream
• Ethnicity matters, but less than class or culture.
37%
21%
19%
13%
10%
Hip Hoppers
Popsters
Roqueros
Trailblazers
Traditionals
The SegmentsThe Segments
Final ThoughtsFinal Thoughts
• America’s ethnic orientation will be radically different in a generation
• Latino, Middle Eastern, Asian influences will affect cultural life
• Americanness will remain and drive towards citizenship increase as a more diverse country becomes more, not less dependent on united aspects of national culture.
• “They” are us, or soon will be
Questions and Comments?Questions and Comments?
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