tosca workshop, berlin, 15 may 2012 comparison of the ssi data sets using observed and simulated...

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012 Comparison of the SSI data sets

using observed and simulated evolution of the middle

atmosphere during 2004-2010

A. Shapiro, T. Egorova, E. Rozanov and FUSPOL team

PMOD/WRC, Davos, SwitzerlandIAC ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandEAWAG, Dubendorf, Switzerland

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012 Questions

•Can we decide which SSI data set is right comparing simulated and measured ozone and temperature time series?

•How important is SSI for the future climate warming and ozone recovery?

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1950 2004.05 2009.02LEAN data

SORCE dataSSI data sets

SIMSIMSOLSTICESOLSTICE

LEANLEAN

2007-2004

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dO3 (‰/nm): Ozone mixing ratio changes due to the observed variability of the spectral solar irradiance (min to max) (Rozanov et al. 2002)

Key photochemical processesKey photochemical processes

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ΔΔOO33 (%) 2004 - 2007 (%) 2004 - 2007

1D-RCPM

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012 CCM SOCOL

Lean data 2004.05-2009.02

SIM and SOLSTICE dominated composites 2004.05-2009.02

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121 nm 210 nm 290 nm 750 nm

SOLSTICESOLSTICE

SIMSIM

LEAN data + 2 composites:

5 ensemble runs with each dataset

+5 reference ensemble runs

CCM SOCOL runs

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ΔΔOO33 (%) 11.2004 – 11.2008, (%) 11.2004 – 11.2008, No solar

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Comparison with observations

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012 Uncertainties

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Comparison with observations

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012 Uncertainties

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012 Conclusions

•Right choice of SSI is important for the stratosphere

•We can identify time/location when and where the simulated solar signal is significant

•However, the uncertainty of the available satellite data is not high enough to make definite conclusions

•Long-term and accurate measurements of all quantities are necessary

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Greenhousewarming

Ozone depletion

Solar variability

Anthropogenicactivity

GHGGHG ODSODS

SISI

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From Barnard et al., 2011

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Model experimentsFour experiments in time slice mode,

20-years, 10 years spin up

“REF”“TSI”“SSI”“ANT”

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012 Future TSI

Source: Shapiro et al., 2011

TSI for the reference = 1367.77 W/m2

TSI for a strong minimum = 1363.87 W/m2

Forcing = -0.7 W/m2

Input for the radiation code of the model

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012 Future UV

205 nm~15 % decrease

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T2m (K) for ANT and TSI runs

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T2m (K) for ANT and SSI runs

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TOZ (DU) for ANT and TSI runs

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TOZ (DU) for ANT and SSI runs

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012 Conclusions

• These results probably represent the upper limit of the possible solar influence.

• A deeper understanding and the construction of a better constrained set of future solar forcings and the application of the models with an interactive ocean are necessary to address the problem of predicting the future climate and state of the ozone layer with more confidence.

• The development of more reliable solar forcing data sets requires the maintenance and extension of all relevant satellite and ground-based observations as

well as further theoretical investigations.

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012 FUPSOL project

Estimate the contribution of solar related forcings (irradiance and particles) to the climate and global ozone evolution during the from 17th to end of 21st centuries using ocean-chemistry-climate model.

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Thank you!

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1D simulations

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012 Simulated ozone response

Tropical mean 26oN – 26oS

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Simulated temperature responseTropical mean 26oN – 26oS