top picks for 2015
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8/10/2019 Top Picks for 2015
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TOP 1TOP 10 PCKS 2015PICKS-2015December 31, 2014
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ndian stock saw stupendous gains in year 2014 with mid cap stocks outshining large cap stocks. The rally got further strengthened
towards mid-year after BJP led by Mr Narendra Modi formed government at the centre. The commitment of the government to
Iratify and rectify all the policies, desired to bolster the growth look to be reality now with Prime Minister Narendra Modi led
government using its power by clearing important ordinances that includes coal, insurance and last but not the least is land acquisition
bill.
Interest rates too are likely to move towards the economic expansionary policies shortly in view of the subsiding both headline and
consumer inflation due to fall in crude oil prices. Fall in crude oil is seen as big positive for importers like India as it will not only help
saving huge expense on the consumption needs but will also help in checking trade balance and fiscal deficit.
Through the Broader index has moved up smartly in short span on the expectation of revival and enthusiasm. However, the earnings
are still to follow and do the justification. Year 2015 may not be a year of strong broader gains in the indices but still the upside
movements would be seen in the sectors, which would reap the benefits of the revival.
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FROM SMC RESEARCH DESK ....
Sr.no Co_Name Sector CMP (Rs.) (29th Dec 2014) Target (Rs) Upside Potential Page No.
1 Axis Bank Ltd Banks 494.00 663.00 34% 4
2 Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd Entertainment 379.45 480.00 27% 5
3 Exide Industries Auto Ancillaries 176.45 212.00 20% 6
4 Oriental Bank Of Commerce Banks 338.55 454.00 34% 7
5 Karur Vysya Bank Banks 559.95 721.00 29% 8
6 Jyothy Laboratories Ltd FMCG 253.00 351.00 39% 9
7 Jagran Prakashan Ltd Media 132.30 172.00 30% 10
8 Triveni Turbine Capital Goods 105.65 154.00 46% 11
9 Kalpataru Power Transmission Capital Goods 218.75 291.00 33% 12
10 Vip Industries Plastic products 112.25 149.00 32% 13
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PERFORMANCE OF "TOP PICKS FOR 2014"
Performance of Report "Top Picks for 2014" released on 27th December 2013
SMC Retail Research came out with a report " Top Picks for 2014" on 27th December 2013. It is a pleasure to share with you that out of ten stocks recommendation, seven stocks
met the targets given in the report for one year perspective. The average return generated is 21%.
Calculated either on the target price in case of target met or otherwise calculated on the CMP as on 29th December 2014.
Prices as on 29th Dec.2014
Adjusted price due to stock split
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Sr.no. Co_Name 26 Dec. 2013 Target (Rs.) Status/CMP Return
Average Return 21%
** *
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1 Adani Ports 160.05 219.00 Target Met 37%
2 Cairn India 320.10 421.00 239.60 -25%
3 Crompton Greaves 131.90 202.00 Target Met 53%
4 Escorts 139.70 179.00 129.20 -8%
5 Essel Propack 52.55 68.00 Target Met 30%
6 M & M 959.10 1202.00 Target Met 25%
7 Punjab Natl.Bank 125.97 159.60 Target Met 27%
8 Sesa Sterlite 199.30 264.00 Target Met 33%
9 Torrent Pharma. 478.00 655.00 Target Met 37%
10 Wipro 547.65 705.00 550.40 1%
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AXIS BANK LIMTED
CMP: Rs. 494.00 Target: Rs. 663.00 Upside Potential : 34%
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Time horizon: 1 Year
Current Mkt.Price (Rs.) 494.00
Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 506.00/216.68
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 116740.61
EPS (Rs.) 26.06
P/E Ratio (times) 18.96
P/B Ratio (times) 3.04
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
As on Sep14 % Of Holding
Foreign 51.54
Institutions 10.82
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 1 .48
Promoters 28.88
Public & Others 7.28
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
P/E CHART
INVESTMENT
The business of the bank increased at higher pace of 15% to Rs 525926
crore at the end September 2014. Advances increased 20% yoy at Rs
242198 crore, while the deposits moved up 11% yoy to Rs 283729
crore at end September 2014.
FThe bank expanded its Net Interest Margin (NIM) to 3.97 percent from
3.79 percent y-o-y, on the back of a 0.07 percent rise in the yield on
advances and a 0.06 percent dip in the cost of funds, largely due to
increase in the proportion on the low-cost Current Account Savings
Account (CASA) deposits which increased to 45% from 43% a year ago.
The management expects to close the fiscal with an NIM of 3.50 percent
FThe mangement expects to maintain the credit growth momentum andis targeting a 20 percent rise and expects a deposit growth of up to 15
percent.
FThe Bank is well capitalised and the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) as on
September 2014 under Basel III was 14.84%.
FAs on 30th September 2014, Gross NPAs Non-Performing Asset (NPA)
and Net NPAs stood at 1.34% and 0.44% respectively. The Bank held
provision coverage of 78% as on 30th September 2014, as a proportion
of Gross NPAs, including prudential write-offs. The provision coverage
before accumulated write-offs was 87%.
FAs on 30th September 2014, the Bank's Gross NPA was Rs 3,613 crores
as against Rs 3,463 crores as on 30th June 2014. During the quarter, the
Bank added Rs 911 crores to Gross NPAs. Recoveries and upgrades
were Rs 164 crores and write-offs were Rs 597 crores.
FThe bank continued to expand its footprint and added 84 branches to
its network across the country at the end of 30th September 2014.
RATIONALE
F
Valuation
With the healthy pace of branch expansion leading to a robust
distribution network continues to be the driving force for the bank's
retail business. The bank will continue to focus on retail loans and
would change its retail loans mix to a higher return business going
forward, thus it is expected that the stock may see a price target of
Rs.663 in 8 To 10 months time frame on current P/BV of 3.04x and
FY16 (E) BVPS of Rs. 218.1.
4
Actual EstimateFY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16
Net Total Income 19,799.20 22,515.80 26,548.60
EBIT 9,479.40 12,024.80 14,289.00
Pre-tax Profit 11,589.70 10,862.20 13,105.90
Net Income 6,310.10 7,191.20 8,677.80
EPS 26.84 30.52 36.87
BVPS 32.70 187.56 218.10
ROE 17.60 17.40 18.20
(Rs.in Cr.)FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
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ZEE ENTERTAINMENT ENTERPRISES LIMITED
CMP: Rs. 379.45 Target: Rs. 480 Upside Potential : 27%
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Time horizon: 1 Year
Current Mkt.Price (Rs.) 379.45
Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
52 Week High/Low 401.60/254.70
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 36442.38
EPS (Rs.) 9.05
P/E Ratio (times) 41.92
P/B Ratio (times) 13.39
Dividend Yield (%) 0.53
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
As on Sep14 % Of Holding
Foreign 51.13
Institutions 1.39
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 2 .17
Promoters 43.07
Public & Others 2.25
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
P/E CHART
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INVESTMENT RATIONALE
Zee Entertainment Enterprises (ZEEL) is one of India's leading
television, media and entertainment companies. It is amongst the
largest producers and aggregators of Hindi programming in the world,
with an extensive library housing over 1.2 lac+ hours of television
content. With rights to more than 3,500 movie titles from foremost
studios and of iconic film stars, ZEEL houses the world's largest Hindi
film library.
FDuring the quarter ended September 2014, company's advertising
revenues stood at Rs 625.94 crore, subscription revenues stood at Rs
424.45 crore and the International subscription revenues was at Rs
87.2 crore. The company expects advertising revenues to see a growth
of 11-12 percent in FY15.
FThe company is planning to launch a new Hindi General Entertainment
Channel (GEC) towards the end of FY15. It will be in line with the cost
structures of any other GEC because it is a mainstream GEC launch
competing with the current incumbent players in the market.
FThe launch of new shows across network channels along with the tie up
of cricket rights and current series rights of programs has helped
ensure that in a highly fragmented environment, the network
maintained and grew its dominance. The Company aims to further
enhance the market share through a planned content lineup and launch
of new channels.
FThe company undertook various initiatives to further strengthen its
dominance in international markets by entering into deals with new
platform operators as well as launching new channels in some of the
geographies. In line with this expansion strategy, the company
launched Zee Film Hindi, Zee Lamhe and Zee Bioskop in various
geographies.
FThe company has enhanced the HD offering with the launch of &
Pictures HD. As a result of its consistent performance, the company
continues to maintain healthy operating margins.
F
Valuation
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16
Revenue 4,421.70 4,679.60 5,437.80
EBITDA 1,204.30 1,316.20 1,594.30
EBIT 1,154.20 1,265.90 1,515.40
Pre-tax Profit 1,319.00 1,413.20 1,690.00
Net Income 892.10 915.70 1,132.60
EPS 9.19 9.36 11.46
49.33 50.15 56.97ROE 20.60 22.50 23.20BVPS
(Rs.in Cr.)
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
The management expects the media industry to benefit from the
improvement in overall economic environment. TV ad spends are likely
to improve and expect television media industry to grow faster than the
recent past. The viewership market share is on an uptrend, which will
help to continue to grow ahead of the market. The company will
continue to pursue growth opportunities, which would enhance long
term shareholder value. We expect the stock to see a price target of Rs
480 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/E of 41.92x and FY16
(E) earnings of Rs.11.46.
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EXIDE INDUSTRIES LIMITED
CMP: Rs. 176.45 Target: Rs. 212.00 Upside Potential : 20%
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Time horizon: 1 Year
Current Mkt.Price (Rs.) 176.45
Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
52 Week High/Low 183.10/99.05
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 14998.25
EPS (Rs.) 6.02
P/E Ratio (times) 29.30
P/B Ratio (times) 4.38
Dividend Yield (%) 1.02
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
As on Sep14 % Of Holding
Foreign 17.43
Institutions 17.76
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 9 .13
Promoters 46.00
Public & Others 9.68
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
P/E CHART
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INVESTMENT
Exide Industries is a leading manufacturer of lead acid batteries for
automotive, telecom, traction, UPS, naval and motive power markets.
The Company sells its products under EXIDE, SF, SONIC and Standard
Furukawa Brands. In the international market, the products are sold
under DYNEX, INDEX and SONIC brands.
FThe Company plans a capex of Rs 350 crore for FY15. Of this, around Rs
200 crore is allotted for automotive segment and remaining Rs 150
crore for the industrial segment.
FThe growth in topline came on account of sales improvement across the
segments, with automotive and industrial battery segment contributed
the most. The Company revenue contribution from automotive and
industrial segment was in the ratio of 60:40.
FDuring May 2014, the company has acquired 100% ownership of ING
Vyasya Life Insurance Company, now known as Exide Life Insurance
Company Limited. The government has increased the foreign
investment in insurance sector to 49 per cent from 26 percent and this
will help the company to pool funds to enhance its insurance business
going forward.
FCapacity utilization of the company during the quarter ended June
2014 was 76% for the 4-W automotive segment. Capacity utilization
was above 100% for the industrial segment. The Company's capacity
utilization of smelter subsidiaries was almost 80%. The Company
market share stood at 63.1% for 4-W automotive segment and 66.3%
for the 2-Wheeler segment.
FRecently, the company has entered into a new Technical License and
Assistance Agreement with Shin-Kobe Electric Machinery Co. Limited,
Japan to implement new manufacturing processes for producing cost
competitive quality automotive batteries.
FThe company has made forays into new areas such as batteries of
electric and hybrid cars and two-wheelers and in the development of
environment friendly storage power alternatives. The company is the
only domestic supplier of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles
manufactured by Mahindra-Reva.
RATIONALE
F
Valuation
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16
Revenue 8,308.90 7,892.20 8,908.20
EBITDA 886.50 1,006.20 1,148.70
EBIT 746.10 842.40 1,001.10
Pre-tax Profit 786.70 896.70 1,063.00
Net Income 544.70 610.30 719.50
EPS 6.41 7.11 8.47
BVPS 40.25 47.46 53.01
ROE 16.70 15.20 16.60
(Rs.in Cr.)FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
To maintain its leadership position, the company is continuously
upgrading its technology and also acquiring new technology to meet
the ever increasing demands of its customers. It is expected that the
stock will see a price target of Rs.212 in 8 to 10 months time frame on atarget P/E of 25x and FY16 (E) earnings of Rs.8.47.
FSome of the prominent names in the client list include Tata
Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra-Renault, Ashok Leyland,
Swaraj Motors and Eicher Motors. This provides it with a
reasonable cushion in terms of business spread among the key
players in the industry.
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ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE
CMP: Rs. 338.55 Target: Rs. 454.00 Upside Potential : 34%
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Time horizon: 1 Year
Current Mkt.Price (Rs.) 338.55
Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 377.30/160.50
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 10151.42
EPS (Rs.) 39.71
P/E Ratio (times) 8.53
P/B Ratio (times) 0.79
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
As on Sep14 % Of Holding
Foreign 12.75
Institutions 20.92
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 2 .29
Promoters 59.13
Public & Others 4.90
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
P/BV CHART
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INVESTMENT
Oriental Bank of Commerce operates in four segments: treasury
operations, corporate/wholesale banking, retail banking and other
banking business operations. The Government of India holds 59.13%
stake in OBC (as per the shareholding patterns as on 30 September
2014).
FBusiness of the bank rose at steady pace of 7% yoy to Rs 326690 crore
at end September 2014. Deposit increased 6% to Rs 186390 crore,
while advances grew 8% at Rs 140300 crore at end September 2014.
Bank targets 10-12% advances-deposits growth for FY2015.
FThe Net interest income (NII) of the bank stood at Rs 1246.29 crore in
Q2FY2015 and the Net Interest Margin (NIM) of the bank stood 2.63%
in Q2FY2015. Bank proposes to maintain NIM in the range of 2.6-2.7%.
FAbout Rs 684 crore of restructured advances slipped NPAs Non-
Performing Asset (NPA) category in Q2FY2015 contributing large
chunk of Rs 978 crore fresh slippages in Q2FY2015. Overall slippages in
the restructured advance book stood at Rs 2799 crore at end
September 2014.
FBank has conducted fresh restructuring of Rs 714 crore in Q2FY2015.
The standard restructured advance book of the bank stood flat on
sequential basis at Rs 10804 crore at end September 2014. Bank has
restructuring pipeline of Rs 1000 crore for H2FY2015.
FThe Current Account Savings Account (CASA) ratio of the bank has alsomoved up 24.9% at end September 2014 from 24.1% a quarter ago and
24.5% a year ago.
FBanks capital adequacy ratio under Basel III stood at 10.88% at end
September 2014, while capital adequacy ratio rises to 11.55%after
issue of Tier II bonds of Rs 1000 crore in October 2014.
FBank has added 32 new branches and 35 new ATMs in the quarter
ended September 2014. Total delivery channels of the bank increased
to 4610 comprising 2161 branches and 2449 ATMs at end September
2014.
RATIONALE
F
Valuation
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16
Net Total Income 7,072.40 7,255.40 8,264.10
EBIT 4,155.50 4,115.00 4,692.00
Operating Profit 1,580.40 1,732.10 4,788.00
Pre-tax Profit 1,580.40 1,751.70 2,271.80
Net Income 1,139.40 1,306.10 1,611.40
EPS 38.73 43.54 53.75
BVPS 418.81 462.06 504.21
ROE 9.16 7.70 11.10
(Rs.in Cr.)FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
With inflation consistently declining and expect interest rates cut by
RBI, the operating performance of the bank is likely to improve on all
fronts including credit growth, asset quality and treasury gains, thus it
is expected that the stock may see a price target of Rs.454 in 8 To 10
months time frame on target P/BV of 0.9x and FY16 (E) BVPS of
Rs.504.21.
Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
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KARUR VYSYA BANK LIMITED
CMP: Rs. 559.95 Target: Rs. 721.00 Upside Potential : 29%
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Time horizon: 1 Year
Current Mkt.Price (Rs.) 559.95
Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 584.00/310.00
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 6772.05
EPS (Rs.) 36.30
P/E Ratio (times) 15.43
P/B Ratio (times) 1.71
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
As on Sep14 % Of Holding
Foreign 33.22
Institutions 13.95
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 5 .77
Promoters 2.22
Public & Others 44.84
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
P/E CHART
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INVESTMENT
As on September 2014, the bank operates with 599 branch network
and 1,637 ATM across India. Going forward it proposes to add 65-70
branches in FY2015.
FThe total business of the bank as on September 2014 grew by 6.78% to
Rs. 80,383 crore. The gross deposit grew by 3.43% to Rs. 44,862 crore
while the Gross Advances grew by 11.32% to Rs. 35,521 crore. Further
the bank is expecting advances growth to pick up to 18-20 % by end
March 2015. Bank proposes to start aggressive marketing of loan
products only at comfortable risks.
FDuring the quarter ended September 2014 the net interest margin of
the bank improved 2.67% as compared to 2.51% in the corresponding
quarter last year. The bank proposes to improve net interest margin
(NIM) to 3% over next two-three quarters.
FThe capital adequacy ratio of the bank improved to 14.41% as on
September 2014 from 12.81% during the same period previous years.
The Tier I CRAR (%) improve to 13.46% from 11.74% during the
same period previous year. The Tier II CRAR (%) of the bank stood at
0.95%.
FAdditions to the restructured advances book stood at Rs 125 crore in
the quarter ended September 2014. Restructured advances book of the
bank has increased to Rs 1599 crore at end September 2014 from Rs
1491 crore at end June 2014.
FThe ratio of Gross NPA improved to 1.36 at the end of September 2014
as compared to 1.55during the same period previous year. The Net NAP
ratio increased from 0.51 at the end of September 2013 to 0.59 as at
September 2014.
FThe bank has raised Rs 625 crore through the Qualified Institutional
Placement (QIP) at an issue price of Rs. 466 per share. The fund raising
is to support its growth in the near future.
RATIONALE
F
Valuation
Improving economic condition and expectation of rate cut by the
Reserve Bank of India augers well for the bank. Moreover, bank focus on
SME (small and medium enterprises) and retail segments, will further
derive the growth of the loan book going forward. We expect the stock
to see a price target of Rs.721 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target
P/B of 1.87x and FY15 (E) book value per share of Rs.385.65.
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16Revenue 1,848.20 2,038.20 2,445.60
EBIT 837.80 922.20 1,173.30
Pre-tax Profit 395.50 602.60 866.40
Net Income 429.60 485.80 648.20
EPS 39.78 42.29 56.79
BVPS 310.09 351.54 385.65
ROE 13.40 13.30 14.80
(Rs.in Cr.)FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
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8/10/2019 Top Picks for 2015
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JYOTHY LABORATORIES LIMITED
CMP: Rs. 253.00 Target: Rs. 351.00 Upside Potential : 39%
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Time horizon: 1 Year
Current Mkt.Price (Rs.) 253.00
Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
52 Week High/Low 300.00/171.95
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 4579.30
EPS (Rs.) 7.81
P/E Ratio (times) 32.39
P/B Ratio (times) 5.20
Dividend Yield (%) 1.19
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
As on Sep14 % Of Holding
Foreign 14.43
Institutions 9.37
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 3 .56
Promoters 66.78
Public & Others 5.86
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
P/E CHART
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INVESTMENT
Jyothy Laboratories manufactures and distributes brands across
product categories as diverse as fabric care, household insecticides,
utensil cleaners, fragrances, personal care, besides marketing tea and
coffee brands. The company has 10 brands in its kitty including Ujala,
Maxo, Exo, Henko, Pril, Margo, Neem, Fa, Mr.White and Chek that are
well-known and established brands in their respective categories.
FThe management is confident of sustaining the strong revenue growth
momentum in the coming quarters on the back of innovations,
increased distribution reach and adequate promotional activities. The
OPM is expected to remain at 13.5-14% in the near future.
FThe company has re-launched Henko Matic in the premium to mild-
premium detergent segment with a new proposition. The brand was
promoted through a digital campaign, social media and on ground tie-
ups. Henko Matic has been launched with the aim of grabbing a 20%
share in the matic segment and a 10% share in the super premium
detergent segment in the coming years.
FIn dishwashing segment Pril was re-launched in August 2014 with a
new formulation. The company has also launched 225ml bottles and
pouches to attract first time users to the brand and the liquid format of
the dishwashing detergent.
FThe company is also engaged into service sector in organized laundry
to provide World class laundry at affordable price at your doorstep
through its subsidiary 'Jyothy Fabricare Services Limited'. The
management expects laundry business to be EBIDTA positive by March
2015.
FThe management said the gross margin for H2 FY15 will better than H1
with drop in key input prices including palm oil and packaging cost.
Future added that the improvement in gross margins is likely to directly
flow in the OPM, resulting in a better OPM in H2 FY2015.
RATIONALE
F
Valuation
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16
Revenue 1,318.40 1,561.50 1,837.90
EBITDA 157.20 179.40 233.60
EBIT 132.90 152.00 216.30
Pre-tax Profit 85.80 142.80 205.40
Net Income 85.38 144.50 196.00
EPS 5.00 8.26 10.74
BVPS 40.57 43.80 48.36
ROE 12.40 19.00 24.00
(Rs.in Cr.)FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
The company continues to deliver superior value and strong
performance through various measures such as healthy innovation
pipeline, aggressive brand investment and focus on improvement of
margin. Company's ground tie ups and better placement of the
products is expected to capture the target markets, we expect the stock
to see a price target of Rs.351 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a three
year average P/E of 32.66x and FY16 (E) earnings of Rs.10.74.
Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
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8/10/2019 Top Picks for 2015
10/14
JAGRAN PRAKASHAN LIMITED
CMP: Rs. 132.30 Target: Rs. 172.00 Upside Potential : 30%
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Time horizon: 1 Year
Current Mkt.Price (Rs.) 132.30
Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 154.40/83.00
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 4325.04
EPS (Rs.) 7.38
P/E Ratio (times) 17.93
P/B Ratio (times) 4.48
Dividend Yield (%) 2.93
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
As on Sep14 % Of Holding
Foreign 13.88
Institutions 12.12
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 9 .02
Promoters 62.60
Public & Others 2.39
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
P/E CHART
INVESTMENT
Total circulation of the company stands at 4.9 mn, which includes 3.7
mn of Dainik Jagran and rest from Nai Dunia, Mid-Day, City Plus, I-Next
everything put together. Dainik Jagran newspaper reported healthy
11.5% ad growth, aided by market share gains during the quarter
ended September 2014.
FThe circulation revenue growth during the quarter ended September
2014 was contributed by 5-6% realization improvement. The company
expects circulation growth for the current and next year to be 4-5%
with the major contribution coming from Madhya Pradesh and
Chhattisgarh.
FThe company said that it is looking to further increase the cover price,
in-line with its competitors who had already increased the price.
Current net realization stood at Rs 2.30 per copy.
FMid-Day revenue growth has been impacted because it has stooped
barter & private treaties business and continued slowdown in Mumbai
market. However, in month of October, the company has seen 25%
growth in ad revenue. The company has stopped most of the
discounted copies and it is net positive on subscription revenue. The
company said that it is focusing on improving efficiencies to drive
healthy operating profits.
FThe company has forayed into the radio industry via acquisition of
Music Broadcast (MBPL), which operates India's leading radio network
known as 'Radio City'. It is present in 20 stations across 7 states. Thenetwork has a strong national presence, with a presence in the top 14
out of 16 advertisement revenue generating markets with a focus on
SEC AB audiences. The acquisition is subject to regulatory approvals,
including from Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, and
execution of binding agreements.
FThe growth in ad revenue was contributed from sectors like FMCG,
lifestyle, BFSI and government while real estate and education sectors
were the laggards.
FThe capex for the year stand at Rs 60 crore of which it has incurred Rs
26 core in H1 FY15.
RATIONALE
F
Valuation
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16
Revenue 1,663.10 1,837.50 2,043.50
EBITDA 382.60 452.90 529.90
EBIT 303.70 355.50 431.60
Pre-tax Profit 315.80 357.20 442.20
Net Income 236.20 247.50 306.60
EPS 7.50 7.96 9.62
BVPS 29.42 34.76 40.24
ROE 24.90 23.20 25.10
(Rs.in Cr.)FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Over the years, the company has gained strong foot print in the media
and communications space. Going forward, it is expected to benefit
from the expansion in regional language newspaper readership and
growth in ad revenue. It has presence in 15 states and publishes papers
in five languages. It enjoys leadership in terms of readership among the
Hindi language newspapers. We expect the stock to see a price target of
Rs.172 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/E of 17.93x and
FY16 (E) earnings of Rs.9.62.
10
Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
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8/10/2019 Top Picks for 2015
11/14
TRIVENI TURBINE LIMITED
CMP: Rs. 105.65 Target: Rs. 154.00 Upside Potential : 46%
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Time horizon: 1 Year
Current Mkt.Price (Rs.) 105.65
Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
52 Week High/Low 125.95/51.00
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 3486.16
EPS (Rs.) 1.92
P/E Ratio (times) 55.16
P/B Ratio (times) 19.93
Dividend Yield (%) 0.71
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
As on Sep14 % Of Holding
Foreign 19.03
Institutions 4.32
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 1 .98
Promoters 70.01
Public & Others 4.66
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
P/E CHART
11
INVESTMENT
Triveni Turbine Limited (TTL) is a focused and growing corporation
which has been helping customers in achieving power self-sufficiency
as well as sustainability with engineered-to-order steam turbines upto
30 MW along with unparallel after-sales services. TTL is the market
leader in the steam turbines with state-of-the-art manufacturing
facility located in Bengaluru.
FThe standalone carry forward order book including refurbishment
orders was Rs 600 crore. And the consolidated order book as end of Sep
2014 stood at 770 crore. Standalone Order book excluding
aftermarkets as end of Sep 2014 stood at Rs 550 crore.
F
Order intake in H1FY15 was up 47% to Rs 290 crore and of whichaftermarket /refurbishment orders were about Rs 61 crore. And the
balance is product orders and of which domestic orders was Rs 90
crore and balance are export orders.
FIn domestic market the company could improve its market share as the
order finalized in Q2FY15 has been significantly higher than the
corresponding period of last year. The company believes the coming
quarters will see policy initiatives which in turn should result in fresh
investment in infrastructure and other industrial segments. This
should eventually lead to new enquiries and order finalization.
FThe profitability in export markets continues to remain very strong as
TTL has a healthy pricing advantage over global competitors. With arising share of exports as a percentage of sales, it will aid margins
positively. TTL also remains very strict about payment terms in export
markets and refuses to accept an order without getting the advance
from its customer and a Letter of Credit.
FNet profit of the company rose 56.22% to Rs 23.87 crore in the quarter
ended September 2014 as against Rs 15.28 crore during the previous
quarter ended September 2013. Sales rose 26.84% to Rs 155.61 crore
in the quarter ended September 2014 as against Rs 122.68 crore during
the previous quarter ended September 2013.
RATIONALE
F
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16
Revenue 514.70 696.60 959.30
EBITDA 103.60 153.20 222.60
EBIT 90.05 140.70 208.20
Pre-tax Profit 99.68 146.20 215.20
Net Income 67.95 98.84 148.10
EPS 2.06 3.06 4.33
BVPS 5.30 7.30 9.67
ROE 43.40 47.20 51.10
(Rs.in Cr.)FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Valuation
The company expects a strong order booking in the coming quarters
from the export market so as to have a significantly higher export order
booking for FY15. The focus of the company on the export market and
spreading its geographic reach is also gaining momentum and is
driving export order booking. It is expected that the stock will see a
price target of Rs .154 in 8 To 10 months time frame on one year average
P/E of 35.51x and FY16 (E) earnings of Rs.4.33.
Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
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8/10/2019 Top Picks for 2015
12/14
KALPATARU POWER TRANSMISSION LIMITED
CMP: Rs. 218.75 Target: Rs. 291.00 Upside Potential : 33%
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Time horizon: 1 Year
Current Mkt.Price (Rs.) 218.75
Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 231.80/70.50
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 3356.72
EPS (Rs.) 7.32
P/E Ratio (times) 29.89
P/B Ratio (times) 1.60
Dividend Yield (%) 0.69
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
As on Sep14 % Of Holding
Foreign 9.59
Institutions 22.44
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 2 .69
Promoters 59.45
Public & Others 5.82
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
P/E CHART
12
INVESTMENT
Kalpataru Power Transmission Limited (KPTL) is one of the largest and
fastest growing specialized Engineering, Procurement and
Construction (EPC) companies in India engaged in power transmission
& distribution, oil & gas pipeline, railways, infrastructure development,
civil contracting and warehousing & logistics business with a strong
international presence in power Transmission and Distribution (T&D).
FThe management expects FY 2015 sales growth to be around 12-15%
and for FY 2016 the sales growth will be upwards by 15%. Moreover,
Ebidta margin of KPTL for FY 2015 is expected to be in the range of
around 10%.
F
As on Sep'14 the company has a consolidated order book of about Rs10000 crore. KPTL has an order book of about Rs 5550 crore including
new orders worth over Rs 910 crore received during the quarter. The
company expects to end the year with an order inflow target of Rs 4000
crore. If order comes, the year end order book would see a growth of
about 5% in order book.
FIn Fy 15, the management of the company expects that T&D business
would be driven by good orders and execution from international order
book. In FY 2016, it is expected that there will be good opening order
book from domestic T&D space along with continuous execution of
international orders.
FJMC Projects, where the Promoters' hold about 59.45% share, has anorder book of about Rs 4450 crore including the new orders worth Rs
278 crore, which it received during the quarter. The management
expects margin to improve further, going forward by 50 bps in JMC
Projects in H2 FY'15 and further by about 50-80 bps in FY 2016.
FNet profit of the company rose by 37.79% to Rs 42.70 crore in the
quarter ended September 2014 as against Rs 30.99 crore during the
previous quarter ended September 2013. Sales rose by 18.85% to Rs
1123.55 crore in the quarter ended September 2014 as against Rs
945.36 crore during the previous quarter ended September 2013.
RATIONALE
F
Valuation
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16
Revenue 7,038.40 7,724.10 8,568.70
EBITDA 589.70 695.20 824.50
EBIT 440.80 541.60 655.10
Pre-tax Profit 215.30 273.70 335.70
Net Income 122.20 172.90 212.90
EPS 7.95 11.26 13.88
BVPS 136.79 148.37 160.47
ROE 6.00 8.20 9.60
(Rs.in Cr.)FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
The opportunities in the T&D space are likely to get impetus while the
focus of the new government on the railways and water could open
large opportunities in the infrastructure EPC business. In response to
the contraction of opportunities in the T&D space in some parts of the
globe, the management is looking for opportunities in new regions. It is
expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.291 in 8 to 10
months time frame on a target P/E of 21x and FY16 (E) earnings of
Rs.13.88.
Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
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8/10/2019 Top Picks for 2015
13/14
VIP INDUSTRIES LIMITED
CMP: Rs. 112.25 Target: Rs. 149.00 Upside Potential : 32%
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Time horizon: 1 Year
Current Mkt.Price (Rs.) 112.25
Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 125.80/55.50
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 1586.09
EPS (Rs.) 2.99
P/E Ratio (times) 37.49
P/B Ratio (times) 5.53
Dividend Yield (%) 1.52
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
As on Sep14 % Of Holding
Foreign 6.13
Institutions 7.58
Non Promoter Corporate Holding 4 .02
Promoters 52.43
Public & Others 29.84
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
P/E CHART
13
INVESTMENT
VIP Industries is Asia's No. 1 luggage manufacturer. It has four factories,
which produce nearly five million pieces a year, making it the second
largest producer of luggage in the world. The company offers its
products primarily under the brands of VIP, Carlton, Skybags, Caprese,
Alfa and Aristocrat.
FThe company in April has taken avg. price hike of 3-4% and in October, it
has taken price hike of 5% across certain channels. The management is
looking revenue growth of 10-12% in FY15.
FThe Company successfully launched Ladies Hand Bags category under
the brand "Caprese" in October 2012, currently it is now available at
500 stores across the country, across several distribution channels,
including select Company-run exclusive brand stores, franchisee
stores, multi brand dealers and leading Departmental chains like
Shoppers Stop, Lifestyle and Central, and also in e-commerce sites. The
management expects sales of Rs 34 crore in FY15 and Rs 50 crore in
FY16 from Caprese. Carlton - premium brand is doing well. Skybag is
also growing faster.
FThe management will do aggressive advertisement for Carlton and
Caprese in H2. However, adverstisement- spend was under control in
H1.
FThe company's subsidiary in Bangladesh is presently operating at 60%capacity and expects to run at 100% by end of this fiscal year. Since
labour wages are going up in China, so outsourcing from China would
not be cheaper, going forward. So, the company has setup subsidiary in
Bangladesh from where it can source its soft luggage.
FThe company will benefit from its national presence, strong brands,
presence in all price categories, constant innovation and new launches.
Over the past few years, consumers in India have preferred wheel,
trolley suitcases and lightweight soft luggage.
RATIONALE
F
Valuation
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16
Revenue 968.40 1,076.60 1,228.60
EBITDA 82.60 105.40 144.20
EBIT 65.60 81.34 117.50
Pre-tax Profit 64.00 84.39 121.50
Net Income 41.90 61.35 86.95
EPS 2.98 4.10 6.19
BVPS 20.31 22.15 24.50
ROE 15.40 19.20 25.20
(Rs.in Cr.)
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
The company enjoys strong brand recognition and has dominant
market share in the Indian luggage industry. Recent price hike and
increasing demand for sophisticated modes of travelling by the Indians
augar well for the company's growth prospect. Moreover, the company
generally report healthy third quarter number due to wedding and
festive season, when the demand for the company's product is huge. We
expect the stock to see a price target of Rs 149 in 8 to 10 months time
frame on a three year average P/E of 24x and FY16 (E) earnings of
Rs.6.19.
Source: Company's Website, Reuters & Capitaline
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8/10/2019 Top Picks for 2015
14/14
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