the transformative power of remediation steven spurling city college of san francisco

The Transformative Power of Remediation

Steven Spurling

City College of San Francisco

The Questions

• Are English and Math levels related to success in a wide variety of college (IGETC) academic areas?

• If so, does remedial course-taking in English and mathematics allow students who start in college at lower levels to perform equally to students who start at much higher levels?

The dataset

• 10 Years of Academic History • 88,000 Students• 350,000 IGETC Course Enrollments• 20 IGETC* Areas• Nearly a Million Class Meetings• Untold Student Time Investment• Native-Speaking Students Only – NO ESL

* Intersegmental General Education Transfer Curriculum (IGETC)

Two Hypothetical Patterns

• The Student Learning Outcomes Pattern

• The Academic Talent Pattern

• We will sift through the dataset looking to determine which of these two patterns explains student success.

The Student Learning Outcomes Pattern - Hypothetical

Economics GPA

Last Passed MATH Level Before Economics

Placed-No Class

Levels Taken

1 2 3 4 5

1-Arithmetic 1.50          

2-Elementary Algebra 2.00 2.00        

3-Intermediate Algebra 2.15 2.15 2.15      

4-College Algebra 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45    

5-Precalculus 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.65  

6-Calculus 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90

The Academic Talent Pattern

Economics GPA

Last Passed MATH Level Before Economics

Placed-No Class

Levels Taken

1 2 3 4 5

1-Arithmetic 1.50          

2-Elementary Algebra 2.00 1.50        

3-Intermediate Algebra 2.15 2.00 1.50      

4-College Algebra 2.45 2.15 2.00 1.50    

5-Precalculus 2.65 2.45 2.15 2.00 1.50  

6-Calculus 2.90 2.70 2.45 2.15 2.00 1.50

The Actual Pattern

  Economics GPA

Last Passed MATH Level Before Economics

Placed-No Class

Levels Taken

1 2 3 4 5

1-Arithmetic 1.50          

2-Elementary Algebra 2.00 1.88        

3-Intermediate Algebra 2.15 2.30 2.08      

4-College Algebra 2.72 2.29 2.34 2.33    

5-Precalculus 2.57 2.79 2.59 2.66 2.93  

6-Calculus 2.89 2.76 2.88 2.77 2.71 3.17

Actual Number of Students

Last Passed MATH Level Before Economics

Placed-No Class

Levels Taken

1 2 3 4 5

1-Arithmetic 1162          

2-Elementary Algebra 2365 414        

3-Intermediate Algebra 1471 666 236      

4-College Algebra 1680 553 395 155    

5-Precalculus 103 521 313 229 45  

6-Calculus 176 271 121 86 45 6

The Data Layout

Target GPA English Level English Courses Math Level Math Courses

2 9 2 5 3

0 2 0 2 0

4 8 3 6 2

2 7 1 2 0

3 8 3 4 2

3 6 4 5 3

3 8 2 6 1

0 6 0 3 1

2 5 3 2 1

3 7 5 4 2

4        

2 5 4 4 1

2 8 2 8 3

1 6 2 3 2

4 7 2 3 2

2 7 5 2 1

0 5 0 1 0

IGETC AreasIGETC Code IGETC Area

I1A English Composition

I1B Critical Thinking

I1C Oral Communication

I2A Math Concepts and Quantitative Reasoning

I3A Arts

I3B Humanities

I4A Anthropology

I4B Economics

I4C Ethnic Studies

I4D Gender Studies

I4E Geography

I4F History

I4G Interdisciplinary

I4H Political Science

I4I Psychology

I4J Sociology

I5A Physical Sciences

I5B Biological Sciences

I6A Language

CCSF Sequences

English Mathematics

Level Course IGETC Area Course IGETC Area

1 L     Arithmetic    

2 90, 91X     Elementary Algebra    

3 92     Intermediate Algebra    

4 93, 94     College Algebra I2A

Math Concepts and Quantitative Reasoning

5 96     Precalculus I2A

6 1A 1A English Composition Calculus I I2A

7 1B, 1C,

40 1B Critical Thinking Calculus 2 I2A

8 Calculus 3 I2A

Zero Order Correlations   

Number of

Cases

Zero Order Correlations

    English Math

IGETC Description Level Classes Level Classes

I1A English Composition 163400.02

1 -0.1710.06

8 -0.016

I1B Critical Thinking 30410.05

6 -0.1430.02

9 0.003

I1C Oral Communication 90640.27

4 0.0940.23

2 0.16

I2AMath Concepts and Quantitative Reasoning 24999 0.14 -0.035

0.165 0.058

I3A Arts 241240.31

9 0.1570.26

4 0.197

I3B Humanities 727850.35

8 0.1240.24

5 0.173

I4A Anthropology 73670.36

9 0.1140.22

4 0.165

I4B Economics1516

10.33

5 0.076 0.34 0.17

I4C Ethnic Studies 99490.31

3 0.1470.25

8 0.174

I4D Gender Studies 10510.27

8 0.0450.21

8 0.111

I4E Geography 8030.44

8 0.150.32

1 0.243

I4F History 256020.42

1 0.1780.30

5 0.202

I4G Interdisciplinary 21890.34

4 0.170.21

6 0.172

I4H Poli Sci 220660.40

6 0.0960.27

2 0.171

I4I Psychology 252170.44

7 0.1110.33

1 0.18

I4J Sociology 143640.39

4 0.1040.31

1 0.169

I5A Physical Sciences 315770.27

8 0.0320.25

1 0.15

I5B Biological Sciences 236410.32

5 0.010.26

5 0.132

I6A Language 162660.26

2 0.0850.23

8 0.153

Regression Estimates – allowed entry into a stepwise regression at a .0001 level

      English Math

igetc Description Intercept Level Classes Level Classes

I1A English Composition 2.55   -0.16 0.06  

I1B Critical Thinking 0.67 0.33 -0.19    

I1C Oral Communication 1.30 0.20 -0.05 0.09  

I2A Math Concepts and Quantitative Reasoning 0.92 0.16 -0.13 0.11  

I3A Arts 1.42 0.18   0.11  

I3B Humanities 0.97 0.26 -0.10 0.06 0.04

I4A Anthropology 0.91 0.30 -0.12 0.07  

I4B Economics 0.69 0.22 -0.16 0.19  

I4C Ethnic Studies 1.68 0.18 -0.05 0.10  

i4D Gender Studies 1.65 0.22      

I4E Geography 0.59 0.34 -0.19 0.12  

I4F History 0.59 0.29 -0.06 0.12  

I4G Interdisciplinary 1.27 0.24      

I4H Poli Sci 0.85 0.29 -0.13 0.10  

I4I Psychology 0.26 0.35 -0.17 0.15  

I4J Sociology 0.64 0.29 -0.13 0.15  

I5A Physical Sciences 0.81 0.21 -0.17 0.10  

I5B Biological Sciences 0.83 0.26 -0.17 0.11  

I6A Language 1.69 0.16 -0.07 0.11  

GPA and N in English Composition

English LevelPlaced-No

Class

Levels Taken

1 2 3 4 5

1-L 1.75          

2-90/91X 1.92          

3-92 2.20 2.82        

4-93/94 2.82 2.33 2.44      

5-96 2.62 2.60 2.38 2.64 1.00  

6-1A 2.78 2.55 2.39 2.26 2.18 2.02

  Number of Students

English LevelPlaced-No

Class

Levels Taken

1 2 3 4 5

1-L 4          

2-90/91X 13          

3-92 5 11        

4-93/94 22 12 9      

5-96 156 43 13 11 1  

6-1A 4314 4455 2588 1375 1429 165

Summary Effects Sorted by Impact

Summary Effect

English Effect Math Effect

Math/Englis

h Ratioigetc Description

I4F History 0.36 0.24 0.12 0.51

I4I Psychology 0.33 0.18 0.15 0.81

I4J Sociology 0.31 0.16 0.15 0.96

I3A Arts 0.29 0.18 0.11 0.63

I4E Geography 0.27 0.15 0.12 0.84

I4H Poli Sci 0.27 0.16 0.10 0.63

I3B Humanities 0.27 0.17 0.10 0.59

I1C Oral Communication 0.25 0.16 0.09 0.59

I4A Anthropology 0.25 0.18 0.07 0.42

I4B Economics 0.25 0.06 0.19 3.05

I4G Interdisciplinary 0.24 0.24 0.00 0.00

I4C Ethnic Studies 0.23 0.13 0.10 0.81

i4D Gender Studies 0.22 0.22 0.00 0.00

I5B Biological Sciences 0.20 0.09 0.11 1.19

I6A Language 0.20 0.08 0.11 1.34

I5A Physical Sciences 0.14 0.04 0.10 2.31

I2A Math Concepts and Quantitative Reasoning 0.14 0.03 0.11 3.82

I1B Critical Thinking 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00

I1A English Composition -0.10 -0.16 0.06 -0.36

Sorted By Relative Math/English Importance

Summary Effect

English Effect Math Effect

Math/Englis

h Ratioigetc Description

I2A Math Concepts and Quantitative Reasoning 0.14 0.03 0.11 3.82

I4B Economics 0.25 0.06 0.19 3.05

I5A Physical Sciences 0.14 0.04 0.10 2.31

I6A Language 0.20 0.08 0.11 1.34

I5B Biological Sciences 0.20 0.09 0.11 1.19

I4J Sociology 0.31 0.16 0.15 0.96

I4E Geography 0.27 0.15 0.12 0.84

I4C Ethnic Studies 0.23 0.13 0.10 0.81

I4I Psychology 0.33 0.18 0.15 0.81

I4H Political Science 0.27 0.16 0.10 0.63

I3A Arts 0.29 0.18 0.11 0.63

I3B Humanities 0.27 0.17 0.10 0.59

I1C Oral Communication 0.25 0.16 0.09 0.59

I4F History 0.36 0.24 0.12 0.51

I4A Anthropology 0.25 0.18 0.07 0.42

I4G Interdisciplinary 0.24 0.24 0.00 0.00

i4D Gender Studies 0.22 0.22 0.00 0.00

I1B Critical Thinking 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00

I1A English Composition -0.10 -0.16 0.06 -0.36

Two Major Questions

• How do students do once they get to where ever they are going educationally?

• How many of them get there?

• The first question needs to be answered before the second one has any meaning.

Question 2 – The Completion of Transfer-Course Rate of New First Time Students

subject level 1998 2000 2002 2004 Grand Total P

ENGL

1 3% 2% 4% 6% 3.48% 73.69%

2 10% 14% 19% 17% 15.33% 81.19%

3 21% 21% 27% 27% 24.24% 81.67%

4 34% 31% 40% 35% 35.57% 81.32%

5 - 1 Level Below Transfer 41% 50% 53% 54% 49.83% 79.28%

ENGL Total 21% 27% 33% 29% 28.02%  

ESL

-2 1% 0% 2% 0% 0.82% 75.38%

-1 0% 1% 2% 4% 1.86% 76.68%

0 1% 4% 2% 11% 4.42% 78.66%

1 3% 8% 10% 17% 9.31% 80.59%

2 17% 16% 23% 28% 19.97% 83.61%

3 - End of ESL 22% 27% 32% 44% 29.92% 84.17%

ESL Total 7% 8% 9% 15% 9.77%  

MATH

1-Arithmetic 9% 11% 9% 8% 8.97% 70.86%

2-Elementary Algebra 27% 27% 27% 25% 26.80% 76.84%

3-Intermediate Algebra 57% 49% 50% 51% 51.03% 79.91%

MATH Total 21% 23% 23% 20% 21.82%  

Grand Total 16% 20% 22% 22% 20.05%  

Are the progressively lower completion rates for lower placing students in the prior slide a result of lower placing students being filtered out because of their lack of academic capability or because they are required to take more class levels?

• To Complete a transfer level:– Arithmetic students must

• Enroll in arithmetic

• Pass it

• Enroll in elementary algebra

• Pass it

• Enroll in intermediate algebra

• Pass it

• Enroll in a transfer level math class

• Pass it

An EIGHT step process

What’s P?

• How to compare the ability to complete the sequence of courses of higher placing and lower placing students? – The march to D.C. analogy.

• A simplifying assumption: all of the percentages are the same

• p = the average enrollment and success rate.• T = transfer level completion• S = steps in the sequence• S = (l + 1)*2 – 1• Where l = levels below transfer

t = ps

p = t 1/s

What’s P in English?

• P (L) = 11th root of .0348 = .739

• P (90) = 9th root of .153 = .812

• P (92) = 7th root of .242 = .817

• P (93) = 5th root of .356 = .813

• P (96) = 3rd root of .498 = .793

And 8 Years Out?      4 Year Tracking 8 Year Tracking  

subject level Exponent Completion P Completion P P Change

ENGL

1 11 2.11% 70.40% 7.37% 78.89% 8.49%

2 9 11.84% 78.89% 16.76% 82.00% 3.10%

3 7 21.11% 80.08% 27.27% 83.06% 2.98%

4 5 32.35% 79.79% 35.58% 81.33% 1.54%

5 - 1 Level Below

Transfer 3 46.20% 77.30% 50.54% 79.66% 2.35%

ENGL Total   24.69%   29.41%    

ESL

-2 17 0.60% 74.03% 1.81% 78.97% 4.94%

-1 15 0.33% 68.26% 1.30% 74.87% 6.61%

0 13 2.50% 75.29% 5.38% 79.87% 4.58%

1 11 5.61% 76.95% 7.62% 79.14% 2.18%

2 9 16.59% 81.91% 20.09% 83.67% 1.76%

3 - End of ESL 7 23.56% 81.34% 26.44% 82.69% 1.35%

ESL Total   7.71%   10.12%    

MATH

1-Arithmetic 7 9.55% 71.49% 13.47% 75.10% 3.60%

2-Elementary

Algebra 5 26.92% 76.92% 32.62% 79.93% 3.01%

3-Intermediate Algebra 3 51.90% 80.36% 55.70% 82.28% 1.91%

MATH Total   22.13%   26.62%    

Grand Total   18.13%   21.99%    

IT’S THE LENGTH OF THE SEQUENCE!!!

• P is very similar across disciplines and from one level to the next.

• Students at the lower levels are not less likely to succeed and re-enroll at any given point.

• Their lower completion rates are related to the number of steps they have to complete! It’s the length of the sequence!

Conclusions• Academic Talent or Learning Outcomes?

– It would seem to be Learning outcomes however in English there is grade slippage that impacts performance exterior to English.

• Social promotion or the soft ‘C’ or both?

• Sequence length or filtering of less capable students who enter the sequence at lower levels?

– The exponent is the length of the sequence.– P represents the equality of capability across levels.– It would seem to be sequence length (the exponent) that lowers end-of-sequence

completion more than differences in P – average point-in-time success and enrollment rates – by level.

– P declines markedly at the lowest levels only in a four year examination. In an 8 year look, P levels out across levels.

• The Bottom-bottom line.– We can deal with many issues. These include everything from learning outcomes to

sequence length to grade slippage to heterogeneity of ability. We can’t affect academic talent.

– Given the nature of our populations, low placing and part-time, we need to track them over longer periods to time. Our model might be continuous education over long periods of time.

– The transformative power of remediation or the second press? What’s our job?

Transfer Completion by Levels below Transfer and Average Success and Enrollment Rate