the peak-end model of memory for experienced utility; psychology 466: judgment & decision making...
Post on 18-Jan-2016
219 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
The Peak-End Model
of Memory for Experienced Utility;
Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making
Instructor: John Miyamoto 11/24/2015: Lecture 09-1
Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help me create the slides. The macros aren’t needed to view the slides. You can disable or delete the macros without any change to the presentation.
Then (time permitting):
Empathy Gaps in Affective Forecasting
Outline
• Impact bias, duration bias, & immune neglect
• Integration of pain and pleasure over time:The Peak-End Model of Experienced Utility
• Time permitting: Empathy gaps in affective forecasting
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 2
Lecture probably ends here
#
3Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Impact Bias, Durability Bias, & Immune Neglect
• Impact bias – overestimation of the intensity and duration of affect
following a salient event.
• Durability bias and immune neglect: We think that events will have longer
lasting emotional impacts than they do.
Examples
• Students overestimate how unhappy they would be 2 months after the break
up of a romantic relationship.
• Professors overestimate how unhappy they would be 5 years after being
denied tenure.
Why do these effects happen?
4Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Why Impact Bias and Durability Bias?
• Focalism – focusing illusion exaggerates impact of a focal event.
• People confuse the initial short-term emotional impact
of an event with its long-term effect. o How would you feel about breaking up with X right after breaking up?o How would you feel three months later?
• Under estimation of personal adaptation
Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response
5Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response, i.e., It Delays Adaptation
Wilson, T. D., Centerbar, D. B., Kermer, D. A., & Gilbert, D. T. (2005). The pleasures of uncertainty: Prolonging positive moods in ways people do not anticipate. Journal of
Personality and Social Psychology, 88(1), 5-21.
• Experimenter 1 approaches student
in library. Gives him/her a $1 coin
plus a card (either the top card or
bottom card).
What Happens Next in this Experiment
6Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response, i.e., It Delays Adaptation
Wilson, T. D., Centerbar, D. B., Kermer, D. A., & Gilbert, D. T. (2005). The pleasures of uncertainty: Prolonging positive moods in ways people do not anticipate. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 88(1), 5-21.
• Experimenter 1 approaches
student in library. Gives
him/her a $1 coin plus the top
card (condition 1) or the bottom card
(condition 2).
• 5 minutes later, Experimenter 2
approaches same student and
gives him or her a question-
naire: Subjects rate their global
mood, and particular moods like
cheerfulness, frustration, etc.)
. Hypotheses For This Experiment
7Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Main Hypothesis: Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response, i.e., It Delays Adaptation
• Top card – Unclear about reasons for
this experience (receiving $1). o Subjects receiving top card will be uncertain
about the experience (what just happened?).
• Bottom card – More clear about reasons
for the experience.
• Uncertainty prolongs the emotional state
created by the experience.
• Therefore 5 minutes later, subjects
receiving the top card should rate themselves as being in a better mood,
happier, etc., than people in condition 2.
Results of the Experiment
8Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response, i.e., It Delays Adaptation
Results:
• Participants who received the top cardwere in better moods than people whoreceived the bottom card.
• Uncertainty about how to interpret an experience prolongs the emotionalresponse to the experience. Why?
o Emotional response to experience ismaintained while the cognitive interpretation of the experience is incomplete.
o Uncertainty forces deeper cognitive processing of the experience,or at least, continued cognitive processing of the experience.
Should We Practice Random Acts of Kindness?
9Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Bumper Sticker: "Practice Random Acts of Kindness!"
• Quotation from Wikipedia article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_act_of_kindness )
"The phrase
"Practice random kindness and senseless acts of beauty"
may have been coined by peace activist Anne Herbert. Herbert says she
wrote it on a place mat at a Sausalito restaurant in 1982 or 1983." [italics &
boldface added] Alternative version:
"Practice random acts of kindness and senseless acts of beauty"
• Is this an effective strategy?
Colostomy Study: Uncertainty Can Prevent Adaptation
10Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Adaptation: Colostomy Example
From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colostomy, downloaded 11/24/09).
A colostomy is a surgical procedure that involves
connecting a part of the colon onto the anterior
abdominal wall, leaving the patient with an opening on the abdomen called
a stoma. ....
After a colostomy, feces leave the patient's body through the abdomen. A
colostomy may be permanent or temporary, depending on the reasons for
its use.
Experimental Demo That Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response
11Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Colostomy Study & Psychological Adaptation
Two types of colostomy patients:
a) Those who know that this is a permanent health outcome.
b) Those who still have a chance that they will recover and no longer need the external waste bag
• Only the first group (a) shows adaptation (quality of life returns to pre-colonoscopy levels). Group (b) does not adapt.
• Message 1: Get over it and move on!
Message 2: Hope has a downside. (Smith et al., The dark side of hope, 2007)
How Can We Improve Our Ability to Predict Our Emotions?
12Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
How can we improve our ability to anticipate our own feelings?
• Avoid focalism – look at the big picture.
• Distinguish between:o how we would feel immediately after an event or learning about an outcome,
and ...o how we would feel after some time has passed and we have adjusted to the new
state of things.
• Remember that we can adapt to a new situation
(provided that we are in the right frame of mind to do so).
• Remember that uncertainty can prolong (and intensify?) the
pleasure or pain of an experience.
Some Questions About Feelings?
13Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Some Questions about Feelings
• Falling in love is a stronger emotional experience than being
in love. Why?
• Worry & anxiety – negative responses to uncertainty.
Example: Waiting for the results of a medical test.
• Savoring and anticipation:
The pleasure of looking forward to a pleasant event.
References
14Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
References
Gilbert, D. T. (2006). Stumbling on happiness. New York: Knopf.o Writing style sounds casual, but the quality of scholarship is high.
Other References
Brickman, P., Coates, D., & Janoff-Bulman, R. (1978). Lottery winners and accident victims: Is happiness relative? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 917–927.
Gilbert, D. T., & Ebert, J. E. J. (2002). Decisions and revisions: The affective forecasting of changeable outcomes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 82, 503-514.
Gilbert, D.T., Pinel, E.C., Wilson, T.C., Blumberg, S.J., & Wheatley, T.P. (1998). Immune neglect: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 75 , 617–638.
Mellers, B.A., & McGraw, A.P. (2001). Anticipated emotions as guides to choice. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 10, 210–214.
Schkade, D.A., & Kahneman, D. (1998). Does living in California make people happy? Psychological Science , 9 , 340–346.
Schwarz, N. (1996). Cognition and communication: judgmental biases, research methods, and the logic of conversation. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Wilson,T.D., & Gilbert, D.T. (2003). Affective forecasting. In M.P. Zanna (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 35, pp. 345–411). San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
Decision Utility versus Experienced Utility
Decision Utility versus Experienced Utility
Decision Utility: Judgments made prior to or at the time of a decision regarding the utility of future outcomes.
Experienced Utility: Judgments made during or after the experience of an outcome regarding the value of the outcome.
• Next: How do we evaluate the experienced utility of pain and pleasure that is experienced over time.
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 15Graphical Representation of Sequences of Pain or Pleasure
16Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Which Sequence Will Be Remembered as “More” Pleasurable or Painful?
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
01
23
45
6P
leas
ure
Time
Amount of Pleasure Over Time
A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
01
23
45
6P
leas
ure
Amount of Pleasure Over Time
B
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-6-5
-4-3
-2-1
0P
ain
Time
Amount of Pain Over Time
C
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-6-5
-4-3
-2-1
0P
ain
Amount of Pain Over Time
D
Claims of the Peak-End Model
17Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Which Sequence Will Be Remembered as “More” Pleasurable or Painful?
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
01
23
45
6P
leas
ure
Time
Amount of Pleasure Over Time
A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
01
23
45
6P
leas
ure
Amount of Pleasure Over Time
B
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-6-5
-4-3
-2-1
0P
ain
Time
Amount of Pain Over Time
C
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-6-5
-4-3
-2-1
0P
ain
Amount of Pain Over Time
D
Claims of the Peak-End Model
18Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Claims of the Peak-End Model for Experienced Utility
• Memories of pleasure or pain are dominated by ....o the peak of the experience (the best or the worst moment) and ...o the end of the experience (how you felt right before the end of the experience).
• The memory of pain or pleasure is not a summary of the moment-by-
moment experience.
• The memory of the pain or pleasure does not integrate the total pain or total
pleasure of the experience
Experimental Studies of the Peak-End Model - Colonoscopy
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
01
23
45
6P
leas
ure
Time
Amount of Pleasure Over Time
A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-6-5
-4-3
-2-1
0P
ain
Time
Amount of Pain Over Time
C
19Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Peak-End Model: Colonoscopy ExampleRedelmeier, D., & Kahneman, D. (1996). Patients' memories of painful medical treatments: Real-time and retrospective evaluations of two minimally invasive procedures. Pain, 66, 3–8.
• Colonoscopy: Endoscopic
examination of the colon by
means of a fiber optic or CCD
camera attached to a flexible
tube that is passed through the
anus. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonoscopy;
11/25/2008)
• Patient may be partially sedated.
Depending on sedation, patient
may feel considerable discomfort
and pain, and remember these feelings.
Design of Colonoscopy Study
20Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Peak-End Model: Colonoscopy Example
Redelmeier, D., & Kahneman, D. (1996). Patients' memories of painful medical treatments: Real-time and
retrospective evaluations of two minimally invasive procedures. Pain, 66, 3–8.
• Affect Meter: Hand-held device used to
record patient’s rating of current pain.
• Patients made pain ratings once per minute.
• Figure to the right:
Pain ratings of patients A and B.
• After the procedure was over, …o … patient rated overall discomfort.o … one month later, patient again rated overall
discomfort.o … physician was asked to predict how a patient would rate
the overall discomfort.
Results of Colonoscopy Study
21Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Peak-End Model: Colonoscopy ExampleRedelmeier, D., & Kahneman, D. (1996). Patients' memories of painful medical treatments: Real-time and retrospective evaluations of
two minimally invasive procedures. Pain, 66, 3–8.
• Possible predictors of overall pain:o Peak pain – pain at the worst momento End pain – pain at the end of the procedureo Total pain – area under the curve of the pain
profileo Average pain – average pain over all ratingso Duration of pain – duration of any painful
experience
RESULTS
• Overall pain was predicted by peak pain and end pain.
• Other variables (total pain, average pain, duration of pain) added very little to the predictability of overall pain.
Follow Up Study With Random Assignment to Short & Long Procedures
22Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Peak-End Model: Another Colonoscopy Study
Redelmeier, D. A., Katz, J., & Kahneman, D. (2003). Memories of colonoscopy: A randomized trial. Pain, 104, 187–194.
• Similar to previous study except this study had an additional experimental
condition.
• Colonoscopy patients were randomly assigned to a short or long procedure.o Short Procedure: The standard colonoscopy.o Long Procedure: The standard colonoscopy followed by a short period (approx. 3
minutes) during which the tip of the colonoscope remained in the rectum. This is uncomfortable but not as uncomfortable as the standard colonoscopy.
• Result: Patients who received the Long Procedure rated it as
significantly less painful and overall less aversive than patients
who received the Short Procedure.
Fredrickson/Kahneman Video Clips Study
23Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Peak-End Model: Video Clips Example
Fredrickson, B. L., & Kahneman, D. (1993). Duration neglect in retrospective evaluations of affective episodes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 45–55.
• Subjects see video clips of pleasant (e.g., penguins playing) or unpleasant (e.g., an amputation) scenes.
• Each video clip has a short and long version (long version is 3 times longer than short version).
• As subject watches each video clip, subject rates moment-by-moment pleasure/pain on an “affect meter” (small device that records ratings from -7 = maximum pain, to +7 = maximum pleasure).
• Immediately after end of each video clip, subject rates global pleasure/pain.
Results for Video Clips Example
24Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Peak-End Model: Results for Video Clips Example
• Question: Is global pleasure/pain a weighted sum of every moment of pleasure/pain, or is it only a function of the peak and end pleasure/pain?
• Answer: Global pleasure/pain is predicted by peak and end only.
Temporary Summary of Peak-End Model Results
25Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Claims of the Peak-End Model for Experienced Utility
• Memories of pleasure or pain are dominated by ....o the peak of the experience (the best or the worst moment) and ...o the end of the experience (how you felt right before the end of the experience).
• The memory of pain or pleasure is not a summary of the moment-by-
moment experience. In particular, …o … total pain is not an important predictor.o … duration of pain is not an important predictor.
• Yes, but ….o … do ratings really predict decisions (choice behavior)?o Would you get the same result if people had to choose between a
shorter and longer experience that were matched for peak and duration?
Choice Study – Painful Arm Study
As shown by the colonoscopy studies of Redelmeier & Kahneman (1996) and Fredrickson & Kahneman (1993).
26Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Peak-End Model: The “Painful Arm” Experiment
• Fact: It can be quite painful to have your arm submerged in cold water for
some length of time.
• Day 1: Subjects either do Short Condition 1st, and
Long Condition 2nd, or vice versa. o Short Condition: Subjects have left or right arm submerged in 57 F water for 60
seconds.o Long Condition: Subjects have opposite arm submerged in 57 F water for 60
seconds, followed by 30 second period when the temperature increases by 1 degree per second.
• After performing on Day 1, subjects are given choice to repeat the Short
Condition or the Long Condition on Day 2.
• Question: Which Condition will subjects prefer to repeat on
Day 2?
Results of Painful Arm Experiment
27Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Results: The “Painful Arm” Experiment
Results: 22 of 32 (69%) preferred to repeat the Long Condition.
During the Long Condition, some subjects reported no improvement (no improvement subjects) and others reported at least 2 rating points of improvement (improvement subjects).
• 17 of 21 (81%) "improvement" subjects chose the Long Condition.
• 6 of 11 (55%) "no improvement" subjects chose the Long Condition.
Summary of Peak-End Model Results - END
28Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15
Claims of the Peak-End Model for Experienced Utility
• Memories of pleasure or pain are dominated by ....o the peak of the experience (the best or the worst moment) and ...o the end of the experience (how you felt right before the end of the experience).
• The memory of pain or pleasure is not a summary of the moment-by-
moment experience. In particular, …o … total pain is not an important predictor.o … duration of pain is not an important predictor.
• Discussion Question: Should you make choices that maximize your total
pleasure or choices that maximize your remembered pleasure?
Thanksgiving Day Suggestion
Enhancing Your Thanksgiving Day Experience
# 1: Make sure that the best moment of the day is very good.
# 2: Make sure to end the day on a good note.
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 29#
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 30
Tuesday, November 24, 2015: The Lecture Ended Here
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 31
Next: Empathy Gaps & Predicting Intentions in Different Visceral States
• Empathy gaps – predicting one’s own attitudes when experiencing a non-
current emotion.
• Empathy gaps in people who are experiencing different
visceral states. o Visceral states - drives with a physiological component like thirst, hunger, sexual
arousal, anger, fear, ....
Predicting the Behavior of Self & Others
Predicting the Behavior of Self and Others
Hypothesis: Predictions about other person’s behavior is mediated by beliefs about self’s behavior.
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 32
Self in Nonemotional Situation
Other Person in Emotional Situation
Self in Emotional Situation
Other Person in Nonemotional Situation
Same Slide without Arrows
Predicting the Behavior of Self and Others
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 33
Self in Nonemotional Situation
Other Person in Emotional Situation
Self in Emotional Situation
Other Person in Nonemotional Situation
Hypothesis: Predictions about other person’s behavior is mediated by beliefs about self’s behavior.
Assumed Similarity Between Self & Others
top related