the oxford economics forecast

JULY 20072

Economic Outlook

OXFORD ECONOMICS’ FORECAST

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011The UK OutlookDomestic Demand 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 Private Consumption 1.9 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.7 Fixed Investment 8.0 6.5 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.1 Stockbuilding (% of GDP) 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 Government Consumption 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.5

Exports of Goods and Services 11.7 -5.6 5.1 6.0 5.9 5.5Imports of Goods and Services 11.7 -5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3

GDP 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.6Industrial Production 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.7Claimant unemployment (Q4 mn) 0.94 0.90 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.02

Headline RPI (Q4) 4.0 4.0 1.7 2.6 2.7 2.8RPIX (Q4) 3.4 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5CPI (Q4) 2.7 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0

Current Balance (% of GDP) -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.4 -3.2 -3.2Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.9 -2.8 -2.6 -2.3 -2.2 -2.0

Short-Term Interest Rates (%) 4.80 5.78 5.46 5.00 5.00 5.00Long-Term Interest Rates (%) 4.50 5.18 5.15 5.04 5.05 5.14

Exchange Rate (US$ per £) 1.84 1.99 1.90 1.84 1.81 1.79Exchange Rate (Euro per £) 1.47 1.48 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46

The World OutlookWorld GDP (2000 PPP) 5.4 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.5 US 3.3 2.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Japan 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 Eurozone 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.9World Trade 8.9 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.8(UK export-weighted)

The Oxford Economics Forecast(Annual percentage changes unless specified)