the next moore's law: netness v6x

MOORE’S LAW

the next

WHY EVERYTHING

WANTS TO BE CONNECTED

netness

this all started one day in 1989 when

I tried to go out of business

but the next morningTHE PHONE RANG

this all started one day in 1989 when

I tried to go out of business

but the next morningTHE PHONE RANGsomebody wanted an interactive version of

Murder She Wrote

this all started one day in 1989 when

I tried to go out of business

but the next morningTHE PHONE RANGsomebody wanted an interactive version of

Murder She Wroteand somehow… within a short time

I was learning Moore’s Lawthen writing for XEROX PARC

this all started one day in 1989 when

I tried to go out of business

but the next morningTHE PHONE RANGsomebody wanted an interactive version of

Murder She Wroteand somehow… within a short time

I was learning Moore’s Lawthen writing for XEROX PARCTHEN ONE DAY I WAS DOINGA WHITEPAPER FOR SOMEBODY ON

…interoperability.

…interoperability. Why interoperability (I asked)?

Because communications… getting different things to work together…consumed most of the time and moneyin creating products and systems.

NOTE TO SELF:

making it easier for things to work togetheris the fastest way to lower the cost of anything?

anything that is connected will always havemore opportunity than anything this is not connected.

—1994

NOTE TO SELF:

Anything that is connected always hasmore opportunity than anything that isn’t.

Making it easy for things to work togetheris the fastest way to lower the cost of anything?

—1994

John Seely Brown tells me:

if two machines do roughly

the same thing(LIKE COPYING)

if one machine(COPY MACHINE)

is in the world of atoms

if one machine(VIRTUAL COPY MACHINE)

is in the world of bits

if both has the sameuser interface (big green button),

look and feel

if machine in world of atoms

is connected withmachine in the world of bits

EACH MACHINE HAS MORE

opportunitythan if it is a standalone

machine— jsb’s law, 1997

Something deep was changing

I was aware of a shiftthe internet?the net?what?

jsb kept talking about the fabric,an emerging fabric of rich servicessurrounding and interconnecting communities

I began to recognizeit was not the internetit was not the network

it was netnessthat was making the differencebetween our past and our future

Moore’s Law observes….

the price and performance availablefrom semi-conductor technology

will doubleevery 24 months

it began as conversationsbetween Gordon Moore & Carver Mead

as an article in electronics magazine 1965

as marketing to promote future useof chips in consumer products

Carver Mead named itDr. Moore’s Law in 1971

became metronome that set the pacefor the global technology ecosystem

most important sourceof new opportunity.

foundation ofdigital everything

enabler of globalcommunications & technology

influence that extendsfar beyond technology

I asked Gordon Moore,“What is it people don’t understand?”

He answered,“What people don’t understand is that the smaller things get the faster and cheaper and better they always work.”

Moore’s Law vs. Netness

EVERY DAY it becomes less important to have faster computer chipsenabled by Moore’s Law

EVERY DAY it becomes more important / productive

to be able to connect, communicate,

and collaborate anywhere

with anythingon an ad hoc basis

what is netness?

in which connectivity is increasingly ubiquitous,lives are increasingly entangled.two worlds < the world of atoms and the world of bits > become one.

IS AN EMERGING STATE OF BEING

netness

Increasingly…connectivity now becomesthe most important driver of new opportunitythe critical creator of new value

not networksnot the Internetbut connectivity itself

The more things are connected,the better things work.

The more things are connected,the better things workthe smarter things are

The more things are connected,the better things workthe smarter they arethe safer things are

The more things you connect,the better things workthe smarter they arethe safer they arethe more opportunity is created forsharing resources and collaborating

We all know…

more things, people and placesare becoming connected every day

5 vectors of growth for connectivity

1. The number of networks

2. The number of connectable points

3. The number of connected devices

4. The number of connected locations

5. The ubiquity, frequency & intimacy of connections

How is connectivity changing?

As connectivity becomes ubiquitoussystems (networks) become fields.

Networks and lives become entangled.

A new state of connectivity is emerging

We used to talk about 3 states of connectivity:1st Loosely connected2nd Closely connected3rd Embedded

Now a 4th state of connectivity is emerging:1st Loosely connected2nd Closely connected3rd Embedded4th Entangled

When connectivity becomes ubiquitous< and things, people, places are entangled >

Systems (networks) become fields…

Two worlds the world of atoms the world of bits

become one

The more things, people, places, particles and bits become connected

< entangled >the better things work… the safer things are.

What creates the value ?

Connectivity has many mechanisms and effects.

Metcalfe’s Law < value created by networks >Reed’s Law < opportunity created by networks >Externalities Effect < opportunity created by networks >summation < more data from more points of view >netness < benefits from more ubiquitous connectivity >

Netness is not new. It is an iteration and extension of earlier recognitions. Euler & the Bridges of Konigsberg, Erdos & Renyi, Teilhard de Chardin, Solomonoff, Rapport & Small Worlds, Travers & Milgram, Derek J de Solla Price, Douglas Engelbart, Vint Cerf, Robert Kahn & The Internet, Metcalfe & Gilder, David Reed, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi & Scale Free Networks, Mark Newman, Duncan Watts, JSB, Mark Weiser & Ubicomp, Timothy Bernes-Lee & The World Wide Web, Manuel Castells, Bernardo Huberman, David Weinberger, Yochai Benkler, Usman Haque & Pachube and the list goes on…

We are not talking about connectingmore things over networks,

We are not talking about connectingmore networks

We are talking about connecting everything

individual world

What we consider today to be interconnected networks

individual worldplanetparticle

…is just the beginning

connect everything,at every level

particle planet

Limit connectivity

You limit opportunity + decrease safety

Connect the unconnected

you increase opportunity, safety & success

Example

ANEIGHTYYEAROLDMAN

WHOLIVES

BYHIMSELF

ANEIGHTYYEAROLDMAN

TAKESA

S H OW E R

ANEIGHTYYEAROLDMAN

TAKESA

S H OW E R

WHEN HE FALLSINTO THE TUB

What if

WHEN HE FELL INTOTHE TUB KNOWS

WHEN HE FELL INTOTHE TUB KNOWS

THATTHEMANIS

FALLING

WHEN HE FELL INTOTHE TUB KNOWS

THATHE

HASOSTEOPOROSIS

THE TUB KNOWSAND THEN PROCEEDED TO CONTACT

THATTHE

MANIS

FALLING

THE TUB KNOWSAND THEN PROCEEDED TO CONTACT

THATTHE

MANIS

FALLING

– 911– Daughter– Remote care-taker– Building manager

THE BATHTUB KNOWSAND THEN PROCEEDED TO

THATTHEMANIS

FALLING

THE BATHTUB KNOWSREARRANGE ITS MOLECULES

THATTHEMANISFALLING

THE BATHTUB KNOWSREARRANGE ITS MOLECULES

HITS THESO TUBWHEN HE

HITS THESO TUBWHEN HE

THE TUB

CATCHES HIM

connectivity fields will enable emergence

of “virtuous service fabrics”

individual world

connectivity fields will enable emergence

of “virtuous service fabrics”programmed to mitigate threats

and optimize outcomes

for individuals

individual world

“virtuous service fabrics”will evolve from current

experiments with

individual world

“virtuous service fabrics”will evolve from current

experiments with

individual world

sensor nets

“virtuous service fabrics”will evolve from current

experiments withsensor nets

&

individual world

pervasivecomputing

“virtuous service fabrics”will evolve from current

experiments withsensor nets

&pervasive computing

for healthcare

individual world

early stage virtuous service fabricsare already operating invisiblyin a surprising number of automobiles today.

Where can we use netness today?

netness is a compass you can use to plan products, business models & governance

what is the most urgent reason for recognizing, understanding and optimizing netness?

Confluencing crisesof population growth,

climate change& insufficientresources & reserves

Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resourcesare the most urgent reason to recognize,optimize and utilize netness.

We must radically iimprove our abilitiesto cooperate and collaborate withmaximum efficiency (minimum waste.) This is an absolute requirement to assure optimal survival of our communities and species.

How can we acceleraterecognition and optimization of netness?

It’s time to begin thinking of

a post network agewhere networks “get out of the way”and connectivity reigns.

- make connectivity visible.- validate the value of scaling up connectedness.- specify, implement and spread “The Field”. < move from networks to connectivity fields >- create new models for governance and business - build on connectivity instead of owning and selling it. - create a taxonomy of connectivity.

implicit in Teilhard de Chardin’sThe Phenomenon of Man

Connectivity = Life

Implicit in Teilhard de Chardin’sThe Phenomenon of Man

Connectivity = LifeIsolation = Death

That is why we can say

WHY EVERYTHING

WANTS TO BE CONNECTED

This is why we can say

WHY EVERYTHING

WANTS TO BE CONNECTED

NIELS BOHR (quoted by ANTON ZEILINGER)

“There are two types of truths:simple truths & deep truths.

Simple truth is truth where the opposite is not true. Deep truth is truth where the opposite is also true.” DALAI LAMA

“There’s something to that.”

final thoughts

There are risks to increasing connectivity.

It can be argued that netness increases vulnerability as well as value and virtue.

Given the mortal stakes before us, the benefits far outweigh the risks.  

Thank you see you on www.netness.net soon.

Sheldon Renansrenan@gmail.com

Designed byBram Pitoyo

brampitoyo@gmail.com