the new political landscape al from founder and chief executive officer democratic leadership...

The New Political Landscape

Al FromFounder and Chief Executive Officer

Democratic Leadership Council

www.ndol.org

America’s Political Transformation

OVERVIEW

• The New Reality: Parties are at Parity• New Economy New Citizenry New Politics

• The New Democrat way is the politics of the future

• The path to a New Democrat majority

50 5050

49

50

49.3

47.9

49.5

46.547

47.548

48.549

49.550

50.5

President ElectoralVote

Senate House

Democrat Republican

Political ParityThe Two Parties Are at Near Equal Strength

Parties at ParityThe Reasons

• The New Economy is Driving a New Electorate

• The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics in the Industrial Age are Collapsing

• A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken Shape for the Information Era

The New Electorate

PERIOD DOMINANT VOTERS

Industrial Era Working Class----------------------------------------------------Information Age Rising Learning Class-----------------------------------------------------

38

32 34

23

8

28

47

26 24

18 16 12

1980 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Less than $30K More than $75K

Voters’ Family Incomes: 1980 to 2000

18

46

27

70

01020304050607080

WorkingClass

MiddleClass

UpperMid Class

OwnStock

An Affluent ElectorateCharacteristics of 2000 Voters

23

28

38

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1992 2000

Less Than $30K More Than $75K

The Clinton Years

32

53

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1992 2000

Family IncomesPercentage of families making more than $50K per year.

15 1429

6882

47

85 8672

3218

53

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Democrat Republican

Up The Income LadderPercentage of Electorate Won by Democrat

50

32

20

8

1825

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1992 1996 2000

Less than 30 K More than 75 K

Colorado Family Incomes

2541

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1992 1996 2000

Colorado Family IncomesPercentage of Families Making More than 50 K Per Year

26

39

57

37

19

10

3640

31

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1992 1996 2000

Better Worse Same

Colorado Financial StatusCompared to Four Years Earlier

3342

61

74

01020304050607080

1980 2000

College Grads Some College

Educational Attainment

Percentage of voters with a college degree

The Vanishing Middle

Democrats: By Education Level 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 No HS +5 +3 +20 +26 +31 +20 HS Grad -12 -12 -3 +7 +16 -1 Some Col -8 -24 -15 +4 +8 -6 Col Grad -18 -26 -19 -2 -2 -6 Post Grad -8 -4 +1 +14 +12 +8

46 43

74 78

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1996 2000

College Grad Some College

Colorado Educational Attainment

8981

52

9 10 13

07

25

0 28

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 2000 2050 Projected

White Black Hispanic Asian

Diversity

84 81

5 29

14

1 20

10

203040

506070

8090

1992 2000

White Black Hispanic Asian

Colorado Diversity

0.88

0.71

0.05 0.070

0.14

00.06

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1980 2000

White Black Hispanic Asian

The Bellwether: CaliforniaThe Electorate is Becoming More Diverse

1

2

1

102018

1710

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

Cities Suburbs Rural

Democrat Republican Other

The Suburbs RuleIn 2000 Democrats Win Cities; Republicans Win

Suburbs and Rural Areas

7867

88

160

92

57

020406080

100120140160180

1973 Today

Urban Suburban Rural

The Suburban Swing

Congressional Seats

38.8

9.214.5 14.6

7.5

13.18.5

17.7

05

1015202530354045

1952 2000

Balt City Balt County PG County Montgomery

From City to SuburbPercentage of Statewide Vote

20

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1998 2000

Wired Workers

Percentage of Electorate

19900

15740048200 68400

100900

722500

289300

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

Total Const Manuf Ret Trade Fin. Ins.RE

Priv Sectservices

Fed-St-LocalGovt

Colorado: New Jobs 1991-2000In Thousands

26

64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1996 2000

Internet UsersPercentage of Voters Who Regularly Use Internet

Generational Change

In the 2000 Election

• Less than 10 percent of the electorate will be New Deal Era voters.

• The dominant generations are the “skeptical generations” — the Baby Boomers, GenXers and GenYers.

40

30 3329

24 21 20 20

36

49 47 50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1992 1996 2000

Conservatives Liberals Moderates

Political Views

31 29

49

2531

46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1996 2000

Conservative Liberal Moderate

The Colorado ElectoratePolitical Views

4038

4238 39 39

27

38

35353532

27 27

18

272627

0

10

20

30

40

50

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Democrat Republican Independent

Party Identification

Percentage of Voters

3430

353540

3631 29 29

05

1015202530354045

1992 1996 2000

Democrat Republican Independent

The Colorado Electorate

Party Identification

An Idea Based Coalition

Tackling America’s New Challenges

• The Next Progressive Majority will be built around ideas and values, not interest groups.

• The best government is the best politics. If we have good ideas that tend to the needs of ordinary Americans in their everyday lives, the politics will take care of itself.

The New Democrat Philosophy

America's Basic Bargain

• Opportunity for All• Responsibility from All • Community of All

Core Principles

The

New Democrat Philosophy

Opportunity & Growth Global Outlook

Empowering Government

Mutual ResponsibilityTraditional Values

12

52

34

12

50

35

15

53

30

14

54

28

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Solve Problems Equip People Stay Out

1997 1998 1999 2000

Role of GovernmentWhat is the Proper Role of the Federal Government?

17

56

2416

60

2116

63

1819

55

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Social Programs Spur Growth Stay Out

1997 1998 1999 2000

Government and the EconomyWhat Role Should the Federal Government Play in the Economy?

Message Matters

If a candidate for President said this, would it have made youmuch more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, ormuch less likely to vote for them for President?Top Arguments Ranked by “Much more likely”

MuchMoreLikely

More/LessLikely

I want to change the tone in Washington – enough fighting. Instead ofpoint fingers and gridlock, I will find ways to work together in abipartisan manner to get things done for America.

46 79/15

I believe in an America that offers opportunity for all , demandsresponsibility from all, and fosters a community of all, with agovernment that equips all Americans with the tools they need foreconomic success.

41 78/15

I believe very deeply that you have to be willing to stand up and fightno matter what powerful forces might be on the other side – big oilcompanies, big polluters, big pharmaceutical companies, and bigtobacco. This election is about the people v. the powerful.

41 70/24

(All Voters)

Message MattersKey Voter Categories – Much More Likely

Gore Voters

Bush Voters

Bush Swing

Change the Tone 42 51 57 Opportunity for All 45 36 44People Vs. the Powerful 53 27 32

Missing the Mark

How Populism Failed with White Voters

Whites % Gore Bush <15K 5 49 46 15-30K 13 44 50 30-50K 24 42 55 50-75K 25 40 57 75-100K 15 42 55 100K+ 18 41 56

White Males White Females % Gore Bush % Gore Bush All 36 60 48 49 <15K 5 41 53 7 54 42 15-30K 13 37 57 16 49 45 30-50K 24 35 60 25 47 49 50-75K 25 35 61 25 44 54 75-100K 15 34 63 13 52 46 100K+ 18 34 62 14 48 50 Upper class 4 49 46 4 43 53 Upr Mid 27 34 60 31 45 54 Middle 47 38 59 49 48 50 Work/Low 22 35 62 17 48 49

National Democratic Margin

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Men 48 +3 -1 -10 +9 Women 52 +8 +16 +11 +5 White Men 48 -3 -11 -24 +13 White Women 52 Even +5 -1 +6 White 81 -1 -3 -12 +9 Black 10 +73 +72 +81 -9 Hispanic 7 +36 +51 +27 +24

The White Vote

A Comparison of 1996 and 2000

National 1996 2000 96/2000 White Men -11 -24 +13 White Women +5 -1 +6 East White Men +6 -7 +13 White Women +21 +22 -1 Midwest White Men -6 -22 +16 White Women +9 +5 +4 South White Men -28 -43 +15 White Women -13 -30 +27 West White Men -12 -21 +9 White Women +8 +3 +5

National Democratic Margin

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Married 65 -1 -2 -9 +7 No 35 +16 +19 -3 Married/Child 31 -15 No 69 +7 Work Woman 31 (29)+10 +21 +19 +2 No 69 +3 -8 +11 Gun Owner 48 -13 (37) -25 +12 No 52 +17 (63) +19 -2 Attend/Church More / Weekly 14 Regularly -27 Weekly 28 (42)-12 -17 Monthly 14 +5 Seldom 28 +12 Never 14 +29 Catholic 26 +9 +16 +3 +13 White Cath 25/whites +5 +7 -7 +14

National Democratic Margin

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Abortion Always Lgl 23 (34)+38 (25)+48 +45 +3 Mostly Lgl 33 (29)+11 (35)+22 +20 +2 Mostly Illeg 27 (23)-30 (25)-25 -40 +15 Always Illeg 13 (9)-39 (12)-45 -52 +7 Liberal 20 +54 +67 +67 ---- Moderate 50 +16 +24 +8 +16 Conservative 29 -48 -51 -64 +13 Democrat 39 +67 +74 +75 -1 Republican 35 -63 -67 -83 +16 Independent 27 +6 +8 -2 +10 Govt. Should Do More 43 +44 (36) +52 (41) +51 +1 Do Less 53 -22 (55) -30 (52) -46 +16

Swing States GOP BaseDemo Base

The Swing States

Democratic Base

States Dems Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 California 54 55 Connecticut 8 7 Delaware 3 3 D.C. 3 3 Hawaii 4 4 Illinois 22 21 Iowa 7 7 Maine 4 4 Maryland 10 10 Mass 12 12 Michigan 18 17 Minnesota 10 10 New Jersey 15 15 N. Mexico 5 5 New York 33 31 Oregon 7 7 Penn 23 21 R. Island 4 4 Vermont 3 3 Washington 11 11 Wisconsin 11 10 Total 267 260

Republican Base

States Reps Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 Alabama 9 9 Alaska 3 3 Idaho 4 4 Indiana 12 11 Kansas 6 6 Mississippi 7 6 Nebraska 5 5 N. Car 14 15 N. Dakota 3 3 Oklahoma 8 7 S. Car 8 8 S. Dakota 3 3 Texas 32 34 Utah 5 5 Virginia 13 13 Wyoming 3 3 Total 135 135

In Play

States That Split 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 Arizona 8 10 Arkansas 6 6 Colorado 8 9 Florida 25 27 Georgia 13 15 Kentucky 8 8 Louisiana 9 9 Missouri 11 11 Montana 3 3 Nevada 4 5 N. Hamp 4 4 Ohio 21 20 Tennessee 11 11 W.Virginia 5 5 Total 136 143

Winning the Values Battle

Lessons From the Clinton Victories

• Promote Growth and Opportunity, Not Redistribution• Emphasize New Democrat Positions on Cultural Issues

Like Crime and Welfare• Stand for Big Ideas, Not Big Government• Support Family Friendly Policies that Help Parents

Raise Kids• Support a Strong National Defense• Avoid Polarizing Language on Divisive Issues Like

Abortion or Guns

Building a New Democratic Majority

• Expand Beyond the Democratic Base

• Men and Women

• Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic

• Urban and Suburban

• Moderates as well as Liberals

• Working Class and “Rising Learning Class”

A Progressive Coalition for the 21st Century