the new normal - amárach presentation to sales institute breakfast briefing october 2009

1The New Normal

An An Amárach Amárach Research Research PresentationPresentationOctober 2009October 2009

© © Amárach ResearchAmárach Research

1. Reality Checkhow was it for you?

2. Psychological Recovery hearts, heads, purses

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hearts, heads, purses

3. The New Normal no going back

1. Reality Checkhow was it for you?

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how was it for you?

News from the Front

Online survey of SII Members

September 2009

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Current experiences in Ireland& future expectations

173 response –all sizes and sectors

Are We There Yet?

19%19%

52%52%

27%27%

Current Perceptions of the Irish MarketCurrent Perceptions of the Irish Market

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19%19%

2%2%

Bad and getting Bad and getting worseworse

Bad but stabilisingBad but stabilising Bad but showing Bad but showing signs of signs of

improvementimprovement

Over the worst Over the worst and improving and improving

stronglystrongly

Feeling the Pain

80%80%

44%44%

Sales Outlook: 2009 and 2010Sales Outlook: 2009 and 2010

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9%9% 11%11%

44%44%

34%34%

22%22%

Higher than previous Higher than previous yearyear

Same as previous yearSame as previous year Lower than previous Lower than previous yearyear

2009 Sales2009 Sales 2010 Sales2010 Sales

Sales Drivers

30%30% 29%29%

20%20%

What Sales Approach is Currently Successful?What Sales Approach is Currently Successful?

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10%10%8%8%

3%3%

Lower Lower PricesPrices

Better Better Value, Same Value, Same

PricesPrices

New New ProductsProducts

Volume Volume DiscountsDiscounts

Advertising Advertising & Promotion& Promotion

Other (e.g.: Other (e.g.: trade shows trade shows

etc)etc)

Planning Hopefully

32%32%34%34%

When Will The Worst Be Over In Irish Market?When Will The Worst Be Over In Irish Market?

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3%3%7%7% 7%7%

Already over Already over the worstthe worst

By the end of By the end of this yearthis year

By the middle By the middle of 2010of 2010

By the end of By the end of 20102010

Don't knowDon't know

Recessions are macroeconomic

Recessions and Recoveries have one thing in common: they are usually well under way before they show up in the official statistics ...

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Recessions are macroeconomic phenomena in the main ...

whereas Recoveries are microeconomic phenomena.

2. Psychological Recovery hearts, heads, purses

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hearts, heads, purses

2. Reality Check: hearts & wallets

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Confident Outlook

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13The New Normal Source: CSO, ESRI, Amárach calculations

What Goes Around

We are ... ?

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-

The Economic Recovery Index

AprilApril 00%% SeptemberSeptember 00%%

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April 77%April 77% SeptemberSeptember 5050%%

AprilApril 1414%% September 28September 28%%

April 8%April 8% September September 2121%%

April April 11%% SeptemberSeptember 11%%

Marginal Propensities

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... but as the fear of unemployment

Debt and negative equity will curtail any urge to splurge for many consumers for the foreseeable future ...

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... but as the fear of unemploymentabates, consumers will loosen their

purse strings, wallets and savings accounts: beginning in H1 2010 and

becoming ‘official’ in H2 2010.

3. The New Normal no going back

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On the web nobody can hear you switch

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Everyone Has Their Price

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Customer Disloyalty

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Customer Disloyalty II

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Generational Shift

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After: The Role of Demographics in Precipitating Crises in Financial Institutions, Diane Macunovich, September 2009

The Boom of Youth

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The 2016 Generation

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30%30%

40%40%

50%50%

60%60%

70%70%

Yesterday, did you experience?Yesterday, did you experience?

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0%0%

10%10%

20%20%

30%30%

AprilApril MayMay JuneJune JulyJuly AugustAugust SeptemberSeptember

EnjoymentEnjoymentHappinessHappiness

2010 looks like being ‘less worse’ than 2009 (and will get and feel a lot better as the year progresses).

Make Customer Loyalty your number one priority to avoid ‘revenge switching’ when

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‘revenge switching’ when confidence improves.

Watch out for demography: we’re all getting older and so are your customers.

Be Happy – it’s both popular and contagious!

Amárach Amárach ResearchResearch11 Kingswood Business Centre11 Kingswood Business CentreCitywestCitywest Business CampusBusiness CampusDublin Dublin 2424

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TT. . (01) 410 5200(01) 410 5200

E:E: gerard.oneillgerard.oneill@@amarach.comamarach.comBB: : wwwwww.turbulenceahead..turbulenceahead.comcom

We are Ireland’s largest independent market research agency, in business since 1989.

We focus on delivering two key benefits to our clients:

1. Consumer Foresight– using market research to say ‘what next’.

2. Business Insight– using research to make business decisions.

We provide the full array of market research

Appendix: About Amárach

3rd March 2009

Welcome to the latest edition of consumerforesight from Amárach Research. We have set out to make consumerforesight a more interactive and informative research and planning tool for subscribers. Feel free to invite others to register for our free eLetter on our home page.

Two months gone, ten to go. Like Keith Richards, we’re all at the

stage of “it’s good to be here – it’s good to be anywhere”. But it

is tough out there. Against a background of industrial unrest

(even the Gardaí are protesting!), we shouldn’t be surprised if consumers are on something of a ‘go slow’ themselves.

But it won’t last. It’s too early for green shoots, but as time goes

by people will want to buy: especially those still in secure jobs

who are faced with extraordinary bargains in shops, hotels and

car showrooms. Irish consumers don’t really do hair shirts.

When we have money we can afford to spend then we’re usually

inclined to spend it: assuming we’re getting good value and not being ripped off.

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We provide the full array of market research services including:

- Quantitative: face-to-face, telephone, web- Qualitative: focus groups, in-depths, ethnographic- Field Only: for international & domestic agencies

Register for our free fortnightly eletterconsumerforesight at: www.amarach.com

Read our regular blog:www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com

being ripped off.

Don’t forget: for every person in Ireland with a mortgage,

loan or ‘maxed out’ credit card there is another person

without any debt (at all). What are you doing to tap the

‘worried well’ market?

Before you embark on a new brand or

business just remember Seth Godin’s

three things you need read more

With the world all ‘a-twitter’ don’t forget

the future is on the TV read more

It’s all down to psychology – an Amárach

presentation on how Irish consumers will lead us to recovery read more

Business is about passion: so for that matter is

the economy – check out some wise words on the

role of passion in success read more

How not to do food marketing: quite possibly the

worst food in the world read more

Optimistic people are healthy and happy – even

when the economy is collapsing around them: what are you doing for optimism? read more

Amárach Research will present a paper on ‘Life Online 2009’ at Comreg’s ICT Research conference on 12th

Image Credit

http://www.breathecast.com/Christian.Music.Artist-Phil.Joel/AlbumView-870_2597.htm

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