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The Millennial Generation:A Demographic Bridge to America’s
Diverse Future
WILLIAM H. FREYBrookings Institution
Washington, DCJanuary 30, 2018
How will they serve as a “bridge” across generations?3
Where are millennials living? 2
Who are millennials and how distinct are they?1
3
4
How do their socioeconomic characteristics differ?
2
Who are millennials and how distinct are they?1
3
4
Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates
75%62% 56% 52%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Age 55+ Age 35-54 Age 18-34 Age 18 andunder
Hispanic
2+ races
Asian
Am. Indian/Alaska
native
Black
White
US race/ethnic profiles by age group
#Millennials
0 10 20
Age 0-4
Age 10-14
Age 20-24
Age 30-34
Age 40-44
Age 50-54
Age 60-64
Age 70-74
Age 80-84
Millions
1980
Minority White
Population Age Distributions, 1980 and 2015
BABY BOOMERSages 16-34
Source: U.S. Decennial Census and Population Estimates
#Millennials
0 10 20
Age 0-4
Age 10-14
Age 20-24
Age 30-34
Age 40-44
Age 50-54
Age 60-64
Age 70-74
Age 80-84
Millions
2015
0 10 20
Age 0-4
Age 10-14
Age 20-24
Age 30-34
Age 40-44
Age 50-54
Age 60-64
Age 70-74
Age 80-84
Millions
1980
Minority White
Population Age Distributions, 1980 and 2015
BABY BOOMERSages 16-34
MILLENNIALSages 18-34
BABY BOOMERS
ages 51-69
Source: U.S. Decennial Census and Population Estimates
#Millennials
Global attributes of the millennial generation
25% 29%14%
Speak a language other than
English at homeFirst- or second-
generation American
Share of marriages that
are interracial
Source: American Community Survey and Current Population Survey
#Millennials
Generational differences: currently married by age 25-34
Source: Current Population Survey
70%
47%
70% 70%
59%
32%
61%55%
48%
23%
44%
51%
White Black Hispanic Asian
Baby Boomers
Gen-X
Millennials
#Millennials
27%
12%9%
42%
35%
18%
10%
51%
43%
23%17%
63%
White Black Hispanic Asian
Generational differences: college graduates at age 25-34
Source: Current Population Survey
Baby Boomers
Gen-X
Millennials
#Millennials
33%
Black
Homeownership by Race: Age 25-34
Homeowner
Not a homeowner
56%White
37%
Hispanic43%
Asian
Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates
#Millennials
2
Where are millennials living?2
3
4
Colorado
Springs, CO
14.7%
Birmingham, AL
-0.6%
Millennial Population Growth, 2010-2015
Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates
Greater than 10%
Less than 2%
Higher
Lower
#Millennials
Whites
Greatest millennial-gaining metros: 2010-2015
Dallas
Denver
Houston
San Francisco
Seattle
Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates
#Millennials
WhitesBlacks
Greatest millennial-gaining metros: 2010-2015
Dallas
Denver
Houston
San Francisco
Seattle
Atlanta
Dallas
Houston
New York
Washington D.C.
Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates
#Millennials
Hispanics
WhitesBlacks
Greatest millennial-gaining metros: 2010-2015
Dallas
Denver
Houston
San Francisco
Seattle
Houston
Los Angeles
Miami
Riverside
San Antonio
Atlanta
Dallas
Houston
New York
Washington D.C.
Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates
#Millennials
Hispanics
WhitesBlacks
Asians
Greatest millennial-gaining metros: 2010-2015
Dallas
Denver
Houston
San Francisco
Seattle
Houston
Los Angeles
Miami
Riverside
San Antonio
Atlanta
Dallas
Houston
New York
Washington D.C.
Los Angeles
Houston
New York
San Francisco
Seattle
Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates
#Millennials
Greater
than 50%
40% to 50%
20% to 40%
Less than 20%
Millennials: minority shares of state populations
Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates
#Millennials
71%
49%
43%
41%
32%
27%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Minneapolis-St. Paul
Chicago
Atlanta
New York
Houston
Los Angeles
Millennial racial/ethnic profiles by metro area
Hispanic
2+ races
Asian
Black
White
Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates
#Millennials
72%
62%
52%
42%
11%
10%
14%
18%
4%
7%
10%
14%
13%
21%
25%
26%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Exurbs
Emerging Suburbs
Mature Suburbs
Urban Core
Millennial Racial Profiles of Urban-Suburban Areas
Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates
Hispanic
Asian or Other
Black
White
#Millennials
2
How do their socioeconomic characteristics differ?3
3
4
Boston, 58%
Bakersfield,
14%
Millennials, age 25-34: percent college graduates
Source: American Community Survey
Greater than 45%
Less than 24%
Higher
Lower
#Millennials
McAllen, 31%
San Jose,
7%
Millennials, age 25-34: percent in poverty
Source: American Community Survey
Greater than 22%
Less than 11%
Higher
Lower
#Millennials
How will they serve as a “bridge” across generations?4
68%56% 52%
12%
14%14%
7%
9%9%
13%21% 25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pre-millennials Millennials Post-millennials
Cultural Generation Gap: white share differences across generations
Hispanic
Asian or Other
Black
White
Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates
#Millennials
75%
60%
48%
67%
54%
60%
37%
25%
40%
Oklahoma
Rhode Island
Nevada
New Mexico
Arizona
Percent WhiteUnder Age 18
Percent WhiteOver Age 35
States with the largest cultural generation gaps
Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates
27%
23%
23%
22%
Cultural generation gap
21%
82%
#Millennials
Share of people who agree:
“Since 1950, American culture has mostly changed for the better”
55%51%
59%
43%39%
51%
Total White Minority
Age 18-34
Age 35 and Above
Source: Public Religion Research Institute
#Millennials
0 10 20
Age 0 - 4
Age 10 - 14
Age 20 - 24
Age 30 - 34
Age 40 - 44
Age 50 - 54
Age 60 - 64
Age 70 - 74
Age 80 - 84
Millions
2015
Aging of the Millennial Population
Source: American Community Survey
Minority White
#Millennials
0 10 20 30
Age 0 - 4
Age 10 - 14
Age 20 - 24
Age 30 - 34
Age 40 - 44
Age 50 - 54
Age 60 - 64
Age 70 - 74
Age 80 - 84
Millions
2025
0 10 20
Age 0 - 4
Age 10 - 14
Age 20 - 24
Age 30 - 34
Age 40 - 44
Age 50 - 54
Age 60 - 64
Age 70 - 74
Age 80 - 84
Millions
2015
Aging of the Millennial Population
Source: American Community Survey
Minority White
#Millennials
0 10 20 30
Age 0 - 4
Age 10 - 14
Age 20 - 24
Age 30 - 34
Age 40 - 44
Age 50 - 54
Age 60 - 64
Age 70 - 74
Age 80 - 84
Millions
2025
0 10 20 30
Age 0 - 4
Age 10 - 14
Age 20 - 24
Age 30 - 34
Age 40 - 44
Age 50 - 54
Age 60 - 64
Age 70 - 74
Age 80 - 84
Millions
2035
0 10 20
Age 0 - 4
Age 10 - 14
Age 20 - 24
Age 30 - 34
Age 40 - 44
Age 50 - 54
Age 60 - 64
Age 70 - 74
Age 80 - 84
Millions
2015
Aging of the Millennial Population
Source: American Community Survey
Minority White
#Millennials
Cultural generation gaps over time
Source: American Community Survey
68%56% 52%
32%44% 48%
2015
Pre-millennials Millennials
(Age 18-34)
Post-millennials
65%52% 46%
35%48% 54%
2035
Pre-millennials Millennials
(Age 38-54)
Post-millennials
Minority White
#Millennials
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
AtlantaLos Angeles Chicago Minneapolis-St. Paul
2025: Cultural generation gaps
Hispanic
Asian or Other
Black
White
Source: Author’s Projections
Pre Mil. Post Pre Mil. Post Pre Mil. Post Pre Mil. Post
#Millennials
The Millennial Generation:A Demographic Bridge to America’s
Diverse Future
WILLIAM H. FREYBrookings Institution
Washington, DCJanuary 30, 2018
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