the midwest solar market: hot or not?

H O T O R N O T ?T H E M I D W E S T S O L A R M A R K E T

John Farrell Director of Democratic Energy

May 16, 2014

Credit: Flickr user blmiers2

Big picture: For years, solar was about remote power installations

and the environment

Now solar is about the economics

POTENTIAL PERCENT OF ELECTRICITY FROM

LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR

50% or more 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 0 to 10%

20%

42%

31%

18%

23%

24%

19%

19%28%

23%

24%

24%

26%

21%

12%

11%52%51%

49%

22%

23%

21%23%

19%

14%

38%41%

26%

35%

28%

19%

25%

21%

25%

24%

20%

22%

19%

23%

17%

23%

18% 20%

15%

24%

21%18%

Residential and Commercial roofs

L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L

21%

23%

49%

S AV I N G W I T H S O L A R

0¢

3¢

6¢

9¢

12¢

15¢

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

IA IL IN KS MI MN MO

ND NE OH SD WI Average

R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S(Residential, ¢ per kilowatt-hour)

0¢

3¢

6¢

9¢

12¢

15¢

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Average of Midwest states

R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S

4.7% per year

3% per year

(Residential, ¢ per kilowatt-hour)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Average of Midwest states

R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S

4.7% per year

3% per year

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Average of Midwest states

R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S

4.7% per year

0¢

10¢

20¢

30¢

40¢

50¢

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Average Midwest residential retail electricity price

Levelized cost of solar electricity (Minneapolis)

Cost of solar with ITC

S O L A R PA R I T Y I S C O M I N G

4.7% per year

Subsidized Solar Parity

Unsubsidized Solar Parity

(¢ per kilowatt-hour)

POTENTIAL PERCENT OF ELECTRICITY FROM

LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR

50% or more 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 0 to 10%

20%

42%

31%

18%

23%

24%

19%

19%28%

23%

24%

24%

26%

21%

12%

11%52%51%

49%

22%

23%

21%23%

19%

14%

38%41%

26%

35%

28%

19%

25%

21%

25%

24%

20%

22%

19%

23%

17%

23%

18% 20%

15%

24%

21%18%

Residential and Commercial roofs

L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L

21%

23%

49%

8500

590

750 30,000

16,000

7200

11,000

1800

990

360012,000

780

7000

8200

510011,000

190026,0002400

7300

5100

360

26001100

1200

800

14004800

1800

32,000

5000

580

970

2300

4100

4400

2900

7200

6800

2800

7100

11,000

11,000

550010,000

12,000

20

1140700

4000

Residential and Commercial roofs

(Megawatts)S O L A R PA R I T Y AT PA R I T Y ( 2 0 2 2 )

PERCENT OF SALES

1-5%

5-10%

10% or more

30,000

6 7 G I G AWAT T S

See ILSR’s Rooftop Revolution reports for data

VA L U E

$0.00

$0.03

$0.06

$0.08

$0.11

$0.14

Brown energy replacement

Avoided transmission losses

Environmental

Avoided transmission access

Local capacity value

L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E(per kilowatt-hour)

Solar is valuable!

14.7¢

L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E(economy)

Not local

0 25 50 75 100

very negative negative neutral positive very positive

L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E(political)

Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy

Not local

0 25 50 75 100

very negative negative neutral positive very positive

-44%

+33%

+77% net approvalLocal

Ownership

L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E(political)

Other 54%

Individuals & Farmers 46%

Germany’s Energy Revolution Still People Powered

29,000 MW

27% renewable

G R E AT O P P O R T U N I T Y

I N S TA L L E D S O L A R C A PA C I T Y ( M W )

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

Sources: SEIA & ACORE

0 . 3 G I G AWAT T S

Solar standard (RPS)

Community solar

Value of solar

Net metering

State tax/cash incentives

Utility cash incentives

Property/sales tax benefit

N . D A K O TA

1 0 0 K W

Source: DSIRE

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

25¢

Residential retail electricity price

Value of solar

Solar price with ITC

Solar price

S . D A K O TA

Solar standard (RPS)

Community solar

Value of solar

Net metering

State tax/cash incentives

Utility cash incentives

Property/sales tax benefit

Source: DSIRE

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

25¢

Residential retail electricity price

Value of solar

Solar price with ITC

Solar price

N E B R A S K A

Solar standard (RPS)

Community solar

Value of solar

Net metering

State tax/cash incentives

Utility cash incentives

Property/sales tax benefit

2 5 K W

Source: DSIRE

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

25¢

Residential retail electricity price

Value of solar

Solar price with ITC

Solar price

K A N S A S

Solar standard (RPS)

Community solar

Value of solar

Net metering

State tax/cash incentives

Utility cash incentives

Property/sales tax benefit

2 5 / 2 0 0 K W

Source: DSIRE

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

25¢

Residential retail electricity price

Value of solar

Solar price with ITC

Solar price

I O W A

Solar standard (RPS)

Community solar

Value of solar

Net metering

State tax/cash incentives

Utility cash incentives

Property/sales tax benefit

5 0 0 K W

Source: DSIRE

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

25¢

Residential retail electricity price

Value of solar

Solar price with ITC

Solar price

W I S C O N S I N

Solar standard (RPS)

Community solar

Value of solar

Net metering

State tax/cash incentives

Utility cash incentives

Property/sales tax

2 0 / 1 0 0 K W

Source: DSIRE

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

25¢

Residential retail electricity price

Value of solar

Solar price with ITC

Solar price

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

25¢

Residential retail electricity price

Value of solar

Solar price with ITC

Solar price

M I C H I G A N

Solar standard (RPS)*

Community solar

Value of solar

Net metering

State tax/cash incentives

Utility cash incentives

Property/sales tax

1 5 0 K W

*triple credit under RPS

Source: DSIRE

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

I N D I A N A

Solar standard (RPS)

Community solar

Value of solar

Net metering

State tax/cash incentives

Utility cash incentives

Property/sales tax

1 0 0 0 K W

Source: DSIRE

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

25¢

Residential retail electricity price

Value of solar

Solar price with ITC

Solar price

O H I O

Solar standard (RPS)

Community solar

Value of solar

Net metering

State tax/cash incentives

Utility cash incentives

Property/sales tax

U N L . K W

Source: DSIRE

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

25¢

Residential retail electricity price

Value of solar

Solar price with ITC

Solar price

I L L I N O I S

Solar standard (RPS)

Community solar

Value of solar

Net metering

State tax/cash incentives

Utility cash incentives

Property/sales tax

4 0 K W

Source: DSIRE

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

25¢

Residential retail electricity price

Value of solar

Solar price with ITC

Solar price

M I S S O U R I

Solar standard (RPS)

Community solar

Value of solar

Net metering

State tax/cash incentives

Utility cash incentives

Property/sales tax

1 0 0 K W

Source: DSIRE

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

25¢

Residential retail electricity price

Value of solar

Solar price with ITC

Solar price

?

M I N N E S O TA

Solar standard (RPS)

Community solar

Value of solar

Net metering

State tax/cash incentives

Utility cash incentives

Property/sales tax

1 0 0 0 K W

Source: DSIRE

1821

4839

88

<1

<1

<1

<1

158

20

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

25¢

Residential retail electricity price

Value of solar

Solar price with ITC

Solar price

L O C A L P O L I C Y

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Installed Cost per Watt

$6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00

13%15%

19%

26%

39%

5% 6%8%

12%

22%

L O C A L P E R M I T T I N G

Data from The Impact of City-level Permitting Processes on Residential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and Development Times (LBNL, 2013)

...the savings

Approx. year for residential installation* 2013 2017 2023

*From ILSR’s Rooftop Revolution reports: http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/

As the cost of solar falls...

from

permitting ri

se

streamlined

L O C A L P E R M I T T I N G

Leading Cities

Vote Solar: Project Permit

L O C A L E N E R G Y F I N A N C I N G

http://pacenow.org/

Active CCAs No active CCAs

C O M M U N I T Y C H O I C E

F R A N C H I S E

LEVERAGEUtilitiesCities

L O C A L P O W E R

S A N TA F EB O U L D E R

2x Coal

T H A N K Y O U !

21%

http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/