the interplay of knowledge and natural resources: ensuring the health, wealth and environmental...

The interplay of knowledge and natural resources:

Ensuring the health, wealth andenvironmental benefits of livestock

Tropentag 2014: Bridging the gap betweenincreasing knowledge and decreasing resources17−19 September 2014 Prague, Czech Republic

Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI

Key messages-1

• With diminishing natural resources,we’ll have 10 billion people to feedby mid-century, manyof whom will be consumingmore meat, milk and eggs

• Transformation of the livestock systems of developing countries is one of the biggest opportunities we have for a nourished, healthy, environmentally sound and equitable world

Key messages-2

• We can, and should, rely on the creation,diffusion and applicationof our primary ‘natural resource’− scientific knowledge −to transform the futureof livestock production

• We can, and should, ensure that wegrow our food and manage ournatural resources for the benefit of all −and for all generations to come

Knowledge, food and natural resources: Pre-history

Humankind and natural resources before agriculture

Long beforerecorded history,people dependedon natural resources fortheir survival

Humankind and natural resources before agriculture

Before the adventof agriculture,each hunter-gathererneeded about 6.5 sq kmto catch wild animalsand to gather wild foods

Application of knowledge first transforms agriculture: Animals and plants are domesticated

Some 7 to 9thousand years ago, peoplefirst domesticated large herbivores

Humankind and natural resourcesat the dawn of agriculture

Long beforerecorded history,people dependedon animals fortheir survival

Exponential population growth

-12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 40000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Global population (millions)

Series 1

-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 20000

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Billion ha land per 1 million population

-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 20000

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Billion ha land per 1 million population

Thousands of ha per person

Less than 2 ha per person −shared with at least 5 animals

Knowledge, food and natural resources: Revolutions

Malthus portends famine diseases, but misses the transformative nature of agriculture technologies-1

Malthus portends famine diseases, but misses the transformative nature of agriculture technologies-2

Malthus portends famine diseases, but misses the transformative nature of agriculture technologies-3

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Billion ha land per 1 million population

US dairy carbon footprint in 2007 is37% of that in 1944 (per bn kg of milk)

The Green Revolutionaverts local ‘Malthusian catastrophes’

Application of knowledge, policy and researchleads to impressive yield gains

Knowledge, food and natural resources: Contrasts

The (supply-led) Green Revolution was not universal

The Livestock Revolutionis demand-led (not supply-led)

By 2050 we’ll need huge amountsof cereals, dairy and meat

1bn tonnes morecereals to 2050

1bn tonnesdairy each year

460m tonnesmeat each year

4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock

FAO 2013

% change in global demand for livestock products: 2000–2030

milk beef mutton pork poultry meat

eggs0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

FAO 2011

%

Change in global and regional demand for food: Livestock and other commodities

developed developing SSA SA

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

cerealsroot/tubermeatdairy

% c

hang

e 20

05/0

7 to

205

0

Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012

Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed

1980 1990 2002 2015 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

developingdeveloped

Mill

ion

met

ric t

onne

s

FAO 2006

Consumption of livestock productsto 2050

• Globally:An overall increase in per capita daily consumptionof livestock products of 37% compared to 2000

• Commodities differ:– A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption

– A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption

• Regions differ:– In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie

consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC

– In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC

Herrero et al. 2014

Knowledge, food and natural resources:Three plausible scenarios

Scenario #1Developing countries meet

livestock demand byimporting products

Scenario #2Developing countries meet

livestock demand byimporting knowledge

Scenario #3Developing countries meet

livestock demand bytransforming smallholder livestock systems

Three plausible scenarios for livestock growth

Knowledge, food and natural resources: Accelerators

The unlimited natural resourceof human will and ingenuity and innovations

Knowledge advances agriculture,while agriculture (the ‘mother of all inventions’)

advances knowledge

Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock-1

• Global povertyand inequality cannot be addressed without investment in livestock

• Global foodsecurity and health cannot be addressed without investment in livestock

Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock-2

• Global environmental issues cannot be addressed without investment in livestock

• Investment in livestock needs to produce more, from less, in ways that benefit all

Key messages-1

• With diminishing natural resources,we’ll have 10 billion people to feedby mid-century, manyof whom will be consumingmore meat, milk and eggs

• Transformation of the livestock systems of developing countries is one of the biggest opportunities we have for a nourished, healthy, environmentally sound and equitable world

Key messages-2

• We can, and should, rely on the creation,diffusion and applicationof our primary ‘natural resource’− scientific knowledge −to transform the futureof livestock production

• We can, and should, ensure that wegrow our food and manage ournatural resources for the benefit of all −and for all generations to come

The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.

better lives through livestock

ilri.org