the international manpads scenario. the manpads threat sa-14 fired at dhl cargo plane near baghdad...

The International The International MANPADS ScenarioMANPADS Scenario

The MANPADS ThreatThe MANPADS Threat

SA-14 fired at DHL cargo plane SA-14 fired at DHL cargo plane near Baghdad airport, November near Baghdad airport, November

20032003

A manpad used against an A manpad used against an airliner is not a hit-to-kill airliner is not a hit-to-kill weapon; it is more like a weapon; it is more like a

launch-to-scarelaunch-to-scare weapon… weapon…There isn't a current and There isn't a current and

qualified airline crew that could qualified airline crew that could not handle an inflight not handle an inflight

emergency regarding any...hit emergency regarding any...hit by a manpad.by a manpad.- Letter to the Editor,

Aviation Week & Space Technology

Launch to Scare? Launch to Scare?

DHL A300 hit by a MANPADS near DHL A300 hit by a MANPADS near Baghdad International Airport, Nov. Baghdad International Airport, Nov. 20032003

MANPADS ProliferationMANPADS Proliferation

Source: Defense Intelligence Source: Defense Intelligence AgencyAgency

• 1000s acquired by non-1000s acquired by non-state actorsstate actors

• 1996-2001: acquistion by 1996-2001: acquistion by NSAs 14 confirmed, 27 NSAs 14 confirmed, 27 reportedreported

• FAS Study: illicit FAS Study: illicit MANPADS activity in at MANPADS activity in at least 17 countries (mid-least 17 countries (mid-2001-mid-2007) 2001-mid-2007)

MANPADS Proliferation – Non-MANPADS Proliferation – Non-GovtGovt

Afghanistan

Saudi Arabia

Chad

Colombia

France

Georgia Iraq

Kenya

Lebanon

Liberia

Nicaragua

Russia

Tajikistan

Somalia

Uganda

Sudan

Countries in which MANPADS were transferred to, used by, seized from, or stockpiled by non-state actors (mid-2001 to mid-2007)

Sri Lanka

MANPADS in IraqMANPADS in Iraq

• Hundreds, possibly Hundreds, possibly thousands, of thousands, of MANPADS outside of MANPADS outside of government controlgovernment control

• Sources: Saddam’s Sources: Saddam’s stockpiles, externalstockpiles, external One of 188 SA-7 missiles turned in One of 188 SA-7 missiles turned in

by an Iraqi Civilian in October 2003by an Iraqi Civilian in October 2003

British Lynx helicopter hit by a British Lynx helicopter hit by a MANPADS near Basra, 6 May 2006MANPADS near Basra, 6 May 2006

MANPADS in IraqMANPADS in Iraq

Recent ReportsRecent Reports• 100 Igla missiles 100 Igla missiles

“available “available immediately” to Viktor immediately” to Viktor BoutBout

• 30 “shoulder-fired, 30 “shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles” surface-to-air missiles” found in arms cache found in arms cache near Gaza.near Gaza.

SA-18 IglaSA-18 Igla

SA-16 Igla-1SA-16 Igla-1

ConclusionConclusion• MANPADS pose threat to all aircraft, although MANPADS pose threat to all aircraft, although

some are more vulnerable than others some are more vulnerable than others

• MANPADS have proliferated widely, including MANPADS have proliferated widely, including to many non-state groups to many non-state groups

• Terrorists and insurgents worldwide continue Terrorists and insurgents worldwide continue to acquire and use MANPADS to acquire and use MANPADS

Questions?Questions?