the global consciousness project weak signals, strong implications roger nelson

The Global Consciousness ProjectWeak Signals, Strong Implications

Roger Nelson

The EGG Project(aka the Global Consciousness Project)

International collaboration75 Scientists, Artists, Friends, …Network of host sites world wide

The tools: FieldREG technology …Make an EEG for the earth, an ElectrogaiagramEngaging moments of global events

The question: Can we capture a Glimmering of Global Consciousness?

The technology is only now availableElectronics, Computers, Networking

REG/RNG devices run continuously

Synchronized computers and software

Internet transfer of data to central server

Automatic archiving, public access

Formal analyses and explorations

Background, methods, poetic history

Homepage

StatusDay Sum ResultsExtract

Magic Buttons

Primary Links Menu at Bottom

http://noosphere.princeton.edu

Berger: Web Design

A Real-Time Display (Bierman)

How it works: Here’s 1000 Trials from A physical random source

Each trial is the sum of 200 bits

The binomial distribution of 1000 200-bit trials, compared with

Theoretical normal distribution

expected

Composing the data as a Random Walk (A Drunkard’s Walk)

Here we see the combined datafor a whole day, from 48 eggs

We can see better what’s happening by plotting cumulative deviations

Correlation Tilts … Variance Spreads

When you put a thing in order, and give it a name, and you are all in accord, it becomes.

- - From the Navajo, Masked Gods, Waters, 1950

For most of the formal predictionsWe specify a “Standard Analysis”

Normalized signed deviation of mean, zi = (mi-)/ Composite across eggs: Stouffer Zs = (zi)/N1/2

Composite Z is squared for 2 distributed statistic

Large cumulative sum of Zs2 – 1 or 2 – df

Reflects inter-egg correlation, or Consistent large deviations, or both

Cumulative sum of its expectationMay show a trend if there is a common Influence or correlation among the eggs

Major disasters that engage us powerfullyOften correlate with big deviations

Context explorations: Six hours of dataAround the beginning of bombing in Kosovo

Cumulative deviation of Zs2 or 2

The Pope’s 6-day pilgrimage to the middle east:An occasion of hope for resolution of differences

Political events, even big ones, are not necessarily of interest to the EGG

We’ll try anything once. Significant correlations with astrologically determined “hot” times

An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations Concatenation across all (24) time zonesCumulative excess deviation of means

Weak Replication

Model Prediction

A major alternative analysis Variance of the scores

Sum of zi2-1 across eggs is 2 with N df

Equivalent to variance 2 of egg scores

Large cumulative deviation Reflects distribution spread, variability of means Reflects large deviations in either direction

Y2K New Year 1999-2000: Coherent engagement? Radin makes an independent prediction

Reduction of Variance across eggs

Odds, GMT

Y2K New Years 1999-2000: Prototype AnalysisCumdev of smoothed variance across eggs

New Years 2000-2001: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized, Squared, Smoothed

New Years 2001-2002: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized as Z-scores, Smoothed

5-Min Smoothing Window

Repeating events teach us how much we Have to learn, 2001 , 2000 , 1999

Inspired by the result in 2001 We examine the previous year’s data

And the year before that … from which we Learn once again how much we don’t know

The destruction of a world treasureApproximate time, noon in Afghanistan

The destruction of the World Trade TowersSept 11 2001

A 50-hour trend followed the attacks

Sept 11 Formal prediction: Inter-egg Variance Red is real data, Green is Pseudorandom

More context: Variance trends Sept 10-12Does the evidence indicate precursor Information -- 4 hours, maybe more?

Radin: Odds against chance For variance excursion on Sept 11

The real data vs pseudorandom data

Data from EGG network Pseudorandom clone data

Shoup: examining a larger contextComparing Sept 11 vs four months of days

Bancel: Autocorrelation on Sept 11Structure where there should be none

Summary of statistical measures for Sept 11

Measure Probability estimate Comparison standard

Composite deviation 0.003 Resampling: 400 days

Inter-node correlation 0.0001 Student t: 400 days

Device variance peak 0.001 Permutation: control p = 0.756

Autocorrelation 0.0003 60 control days: p > 0.05

News correlation 0.002 Student t: 365 days

Diurnal variation 0.30 Time series: 365 days

Bottom line: the full formal database113 global events over 4 years

What do we have in hand?Where do we want to go with it?

Four years of data

50 eggs around the world

More than 100 formal studies

About 65% positive outcome

About 20% individually significant

Many analyses remain to be done

Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration?

Refine operation and dissemination

Ask good questions, smart and useful

Learn whether consciousness “works”

Support quest for theoretical picture

Teach people about creative mind

Convince leaders we are one

Contribute to better future for culture

We think the world apart. What would it be like to think the world together?

-- Parker Palmer, educator

http://noosphere.princeton.edu