the future of media gerd leonhard media futurist @ plugg 2009

“The Future of Media”Presentation by Gerd Leonhard

★ twitter.com/gleonhard★www.mediafuturist.com

‣ Futurist‣ Strategist‣ Author

All of a sudden

MEDIA &

ENTER-TAIN-MENT

COMMU-

NICATION &

TELE-COM

ADVER-TISING

CONTENTSEARCH

Source: IBM Institute for Business Value Study

Huge potential - once licensing issues are

solved

Bundles and FlatRates will drive this

MUCH bigger potential (imho)

Think: Mobile + Content +Social Nets

The Music Industry: a good example of how not to do this...

Larry Lessig (and me, too ;):

Compensation not

Control

Digital Content Trends

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015

Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services

Music Video Games Books Mags & Print

Digital Content Trends

Copy Economy

Access / Usage / Sharing Economy

Starting in 2009:•Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers•Deep collaboration becomes the KEY requirement for creating new business opps

•Over-the top layers (search, social media...) will come down, telecoms will move up!

2010: ‘Telecom’ and Media = TeleMedia

Data Pipe

Content Pipe

Experience PlatformService Pipe

Media will follow the switch from Closed to Open

From Domination to Collaboration

Google China President Kai Fu Lee: “Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly,

is the key to sustainable growth”

Source: Nokia

Source: Susan Fassberg

Meet the 2nd biggest music retailer in Indonesia...

Kevin Kelly @ kk.org

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Was Is Soon The Future

Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)

Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXTValue of Meta-Content Value of ExperiencesValue of Packaging

Value of ‘a Copy’

Value of ContextValue of Experience

Value of Meta-ContentValue of Packaging

Media $$$: no longer about Distribution

Should ISPs to control what people do online??

In the meantime...

New forms of Reputation and Status?

Social Media is becoming... CRM!

A new driver of commerce: Sharism

...the Output (i.e. publish, re-mix, co-create, life-stream...)the Input (i.e. remuneration in cash, attention, reputation...)... the Thruput (i.e. usage data, meta content, attention trails >> New Data Economics)

The Sharing Economy Logic

New Data Economy

New Content Economy

Next Generation Advertising

The new Generatives of Contentinfluenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler...

T r u s tImmediacy

IndividualizationPackagingSelection / Filtering

ConvenienceConversation

Example: the difference between

iStockphoto photos are purchased because of:• Much better metadata.• Better findability.• Faster service.• Low & attractive price-points

New Generatives and The Future of Television

The TV experience is becoming unified across all screens

What’s new about that?•Your own, unique selection of add-ons, widgets and applications on all platforms

•This TV knows who you are!

And how will we experience all this?

Turning the USERs into $$

Summary

Participate or be participated!

TALK BACK:★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com★ twitter.com/gleonhard★ facebook: gleonhard★ more presentations at

www.mediafuturist.com

Thanks for your time!