the fiji economy chartbook and statistical annex
Post on 14-Feb-2017
223 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
THE FIJI ECONOMY
CHARTBOOK and STATISTICAL
ANNEX
ECONOMICS GROUP
DECEMBER 2016
THE WORLD ECONOMY 1 THE EXTERNAL SECTOR 10
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC
ACTIVITY 3 COMMODITY PRICES 12
THE MONETARY SECTOR 6 PRICES AND WAGES 13
THE GOVERNMENT
SECTOR 9 STATISTICAL ANNEX 14
THE FIJI ECONOMY
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Nov
Dec
1993
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1994
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1995
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
THE WORLD ECONOMY
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(f) 2017(f)
%
REAL GDP GROWTH
WORLD/ADVANCED/EMERGING & MARKET ECONOMIES
World
Advanced
Developing
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2016)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(e) 2016(f) 2017(f)
%
INFLATION
MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS
US Euro zone NZ Aust Japan
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% POLICY RELATED INTEREST RATES
US Euro zone NZ
Aust JP
Note: US: federal funds target rate; Aust: cash target rate; Euro zone: refinancing rate Source: Bloomberg
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(e) 2014(e) 2015(f) 2016(f)
%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
US Euro zone Aust
NZ JP
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2015)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(f) 2017(f)
%
REAL GDP GROWTH
MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS
US Euro zone Aust
NZ Japan
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook and Consensus Forecasts
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% TEN YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND RATES
US Euro zone Aust NZ JP
Source: Bloomberg
ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 1
````
THE WORLD ECONOMY
0
2
4
6
8
Malaysia Hong Kong South Korea Thailand India China
%
ASIAN ECONOMIES' GDP GROWTH OUTLOOK
2016(f)
2017(f)
Source: Asia Pacific Consensus Forecast - November 2016
0
1
2
3
4
US Japan Eurozone Aust NZ
% TRADING PARTNERS' GDP GROWTH OUTLOOK
2016(f) 2017(f)
Source: Asia Pacific Consensus Forecast - November 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index ASIAN CURRENCIES
Philippines Indonesia
Malaysia South Korea
Thailand
Source: Bloomberg
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index
WORLD COMMODITY PRICE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index
COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (US$)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index
COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (F$)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 2
````
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
AUST
NZ
USA
CANADA
UK
JAPAN
CHINA
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
VISITOR ARRIVALS BY COUNTRY
(2016: Jan - Nov)
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Mar Jun Sep Dec
000's QUARTERLY VISITOR ARRIVALS
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$M QUARTERLY BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION
COMPLETION CERTIFICATES
Value
Number
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(e)
%
INVESTMENT
Share of Nominal GDP
Note:
(e) RBF estimate
Sources: Fiji Bureau of Statistics and Reserve Bank of Fiji
Private & Public Enterprises
Changes in Inventories
Government
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics (Numbers 000's)
No.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$M QUARTERLY BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION
BUILDING PERMITS
Value
Number
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
No.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$M QUARTERLY BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION
VALUE OF WORK PUT IN PLACE
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 3
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010(e)
2011(f)
2012(f)
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16
Net %
BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS (Next 3 months)
FUTURE INVESTMENT PLANS
Note: Based on RBF Survey
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(f)
% RETAIL SALES
Annual Percentage Change
Note: Based on RBF Survey
(f) RBF forecast
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
Plant
Buildings
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16
Net %
BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS (Next 12 months)
FUTURE INVESTMENT PLANS
Note: Based on RBF Survey
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
Plant
Buildings
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16
Net %
BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS (Next 3 months)
FUTURE PRODUCTION & EMPLOYMENT
Note: Based on RBF Survey
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
Employment
Production
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16
Net %
BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS (Next 12 months)
FUTURE PRODUCTION & EMPLOYMENT
Note: Based on RBF Survey
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
Employment
Production
ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 4
````
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(r) 2015 2016
'000 tonnes
SUGAR PRODUCTION
(Seasonal)
Note:
(r) revised
Source: Fiji Sugar Corporation Limited
Annual
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(r) 2015(p) 2016(f) 2017(f)
% REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(Annual Percentage Change)
Sources: Fiji Bureau of Statistics & Macroeconomic Committee
Note: (p) provisional; (r) revised; (f) forecast
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
'000 ounces
ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION
Source: Vatukoula Gold Mines Limited
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
'000 tonnes
ANNUAL COPRA PRODUCTION
Sources: Coconut Industry Development Authority & Ministry of Primary Industries
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2005 2007 2009(e) 2011(e) 2013(e) 2015(e)
cubic meters
ANNUAL TIMBER PRODUCTION
Sources: Fiji Bureau of Statistics & Macroeconomic Committee
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015(e)
ANNUAL FISH PRODUCTION
Sources: Fiji Bureau of Statistics and Macroeconomic Committee
'000 tonnes
ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 5
````
THE MONETARY SECTOR
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
2013 Apr Jul Oct 2014 Apr Jul Oct 2015 Apr Jul Oct 2016 Apr Jul Oct
%
PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT
(Year-on-Year Percent Change)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2013 Apr Jul Oct 2014 Apr Jul Oct 2015 Apr Jul Oct 2016 Apr Jul Oct
%
BROAD MONEY (M3)
(Year-on-Year Percent Change)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2013 Apr Jul Oct 2014 Apr Jul Oct 2015 Apr Jul Oct 2016 Apr Jul Oct
%
CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION
(Year-on-Year Percent Change)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
Note: Data are monthly averages for currency
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2013 Apr Jul Oct 2014 Apr Jul Oct 2015 Apr Jul Oct 2016 Apr Jul Oct
%
MONEY SUPPLY (M1)
(Year-on-Year Percent Change)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2013 Apr Jul Oct 2014 Apr Jul Oct 2015 Apr Jul Oct 2016 Apr Jul Oct
%
DOMESTIC CREDIT
(Year-on-Year Percent Change)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
Currency in Circulation
ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 6
````
THE MONETARY SECTOR
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%
SELECTED MONEY MARKET RATES
(Percent Per Annum)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji ------: no issues
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
May 2011 Sep May 2013 Sep May 2015 Sep May
%
RBF NOTES 14-DAY YIELD
( Percent Per Annum)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
------: no issues
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%
RBF'S MINIMUM LENDING RATE
(Percent Per Annum)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$M
COMMERCIAL BANKS' DEMAND DEPOSITS
Source: Commercial Banks
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% COMMERCIAL BANKS' LIQUIDITY RATIOS
Source: Commercial Banks
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%
COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING AND DEPOSIT RATES
(Percent Per Annum)
Source: Commercial Banks
Loans and Advances (Excl Staff)
Time Deposit
Savings Deposit
Treasury bills (91 day)
Inter-bank
Promissory notes (91 day)
ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 7
````
THE MONETARY SECTOR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16
$M
COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING - AGRICULTURE
Source: Commercial Banks
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16
$M
COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING - PRIVATE
INDIVIDUALS
Source: Commercial Banks
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16
$M
COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING - WHOLESALE, RETAIL,
HOTELS & RESTAURANTS
Source: Commercial Banks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16
$M
COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING - BUILDING AND
CONSTRUCTION
Source: Commercial Banks
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16
$M
COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING - MANUFACTURING
Source: Commercial Banks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16
$M
COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING - REAL ESTATE
Source: Commercial Banks
ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 8
-2.49
2007
2008
Sep2013
Sep2014
2007
2008
Sep2013
Sep2014
THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
0
1
2
3
4
5
FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 (b) FY 17/18 (t)
%
GOVERNMENT INTEREST PAYMENTS
(Percent of GDP)
Source: Ministry of Economy, 2016-2017 National Budget Supplement
Note: (b) budgeted; (t) targeted
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 (b) FY 17/18 (t)
%
NET UNDERLYING BALANCE
(Percent of GDP)
Sources: Ministry of Economy 2016-2017 National Budget Supplement
Note: (b) budgeted; (t) targeted
ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT DECEMBER 2016 Page 9
````
THE EXTERNAL SECTOR
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012p 2013p 2014p
%
EXPORTS
(Annual Percent Change)
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
Note: Data includes aircraft re-exports
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2013(r) 2014(r) 2015(r)
% CURRENT AND CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS
(Percent of GDP)
Current Capital Financial
Source: Fiji Islands Bureau of Statistics Note: Based on BPM6 Manual
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
FOREIGN RESERVES
(RBF Holdings)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
F$M
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2012p 2013p 2014p
%
IMPORTS
(Annual Percent Change)
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
Note: Data includes aircraft imports
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
%
EXPORTS
(Cumulative Percent Change: December 2014)
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
Note: Data includes aircraft
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
%
IMPORTS
(Cumulative Percent Changes: December 2014)
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
Note: Data includes aircraft re-exports
ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 10
````
THE MONETARY SECTOR
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index
REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE
(End of Month)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
F$
EXCHANGE RATE OF F$ PER US$
(End of Month)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NZ$/Euro/A$
EXCHANGE RATE OF SELECTED CURRENCIES PER F$
(End of Month)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
Note: Euro was introduced in January 1999
A$
NZ$
Euro
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
YEN
EXCHANGE RATE OF JAPANESE YEN PER US$
(End of Month)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NZ$/A$
EXCHANGE RATE OF SELECTED CURRENCIES PER US$
(End of Month)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
NZ$
A$
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Euro
EXCHANGE RATE EURO PER US$
(End of Month)
Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji
ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 11
````
COMMODITY PRICES
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US$/tonne
COCONUT OIL PRICES
(End of Month)
Source: Ministry of Primary Industries
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US$/barrel
CRUDE BRENT OIL PRICES
(End of Month)
Source: Bloomberg
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index
LUMBER PRICES
(End of Month)
Source: Bloomberg
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US cents/lb
WORLD MARKET SUGAR PRICES
(End of Month)
Source: Bloomberg
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US cents/lb
EU SUGAR PRICES
(End of Month)
Sources: Fiji Sugar Corporation and Reserve Bank of Fiji
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US$/oz
GOLD PRICES
(End of Month)
Source: Bloomberg
ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 12
Note: For the given CPI charts, 2011 Base Average of 12 months = 100.0
PRICE AND WAGES
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan July Jan July Jan July Jan July
% CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(Year-on-Year Percent Change )
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Ag
ri., F
ore
st.
& F
ish
.
Min
ing
& Q
uar
ryin
g
Man
uf.
Ele
ctri
city
& W
ater
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Wh
ole
. &
Ret
ail
Tra
de
&
Res
t. &
Ho
tels
Tra
nsp
ort
, S
tora
ge
&
Co
mm
.
Fin
ance
, In
sura
nce
, R
eal
Est
ate
& B
uss
. S
er.
Co
mm
un
ity
, S
oci
al &
Per
s. S
er.
000's
EMPLOYMENT
2008(e)
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
-10-505
10152025303540
Fo
od
& N
on
-alc
oh
oli
c B
ever
ag
es
Alc
oh
oli
c B
ever
ages
, T
ob
acco
& N
arco
tics
Clo
thin
g &
Fo
otw
ear
Ho
usi
ng
, W
ater
, E
lec.
, G
as &
oth
er F
uel
s
Fu
rnis
hin
gs,
Hh
ld. E
qu
ip. &
Ro
uti
ne
Hh
ld. m
ain
ten
ance
Hea
lth
Tra
nsp
ort
Co
mm
un
icat
ion
Rec
reat
ion
& C
ult
ure
Ed
uca
tio
n
Res
tura
nts
& H
ote
ls
Mis
cell
aneo
us
Go
od
s &
Serv
ices
%
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(Year-on-Year Percent Change for December 2016)
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Food &
Non-a
lcoholi
c B
ever
ages
Alc
oholi
c B
ever
ages
, T
obac
co &
Nar
coti
cs
Housi
ng, W
ater
, E
lec.
, G
as &
oth
er F
uel
s
Hea
lth
Tra
nsp
ort
Com
munic
atio
n
Rec
reat
ion &
Cult
ure
Educa
tion
Res
tura
nts
& H
ote
ls
Mis
cell
aneo
us
Goods
& S
ervic
es
% INFLATION
(Weighted Contribution for December 2016)
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6R
estu
rants
& H
ote
ls
Rec
reat
ion &
Cult
ure
Hea
lth
Furn
ishin
gs,
Hhld
. E
quip
. &
Routi
ne
Hhld
. m
ainte
nan
ce
Clo
thin
g &
Footw
ear
Alc
oholi
c B
ever
ages
, T
obac
co &
Nar
coti
cs
Food &
Non-a
lcoholi
c B
ever
ages
%
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(Monthly Percent Change for Decemer 2016)
Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
2012 2013 2011 2014 2015 2016
ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 13
top related