the father of the aeroplane

Aviation in TransitionChallenges and Opportunities of

Liberalisation

The Future of Liberalisation

Professor Ian Poll Director Cranfield College of Aeronautics

Slide 2

The Father of the Aeroplane

Sir George Cayley (1773 – 1857)

Slide 3

Why was Cayley interested in flight?

• He recognised that the industrial revolution needed transportation to bring raw materials to the factories and to take the products to market.

• He saw clearly that road, rail and sea were limited.

However transport by air would remove many of the limitations of the other modes and would bring huge economic benefits

Slide 4

Issues

• After 100 years there is now a clear divergence of civil and military aviation.

• Civil aircraft are now treated as commodities – airframe is no longer a major target for research

• Technology is now just as important on the ground as it is in the air

Slide 5

The Drivers

• Economy

• Safety

• Security

• Environment

“Cheaper, Safer and Cleaner”

Slide 6

Technology to reduce costs

• Health and usage monitoring – only service the aircraft when absolutely necessary

• New air traffic solutions – cut out waste • De-skilling piloting and ATM tasks –

reduce cost of staff• Better use of IT to reduce cost of sales,

links with supply chain etc• More efficient training methods

Slide 7

Technology to improve safety• Reduce piloting intervention – 80% of

accidents involve human error• Use of virtual reality to overcome physical

difficulties e.g. all round vision, poor weather visibility

• ATM systems that separate aircraft rather than bunch them together

• More effective training systems

Slide 8

Technology to improve security

• Ability to screen for weapons and explosives

• Internationally linked data bases for rapid identification of undesirable individuals

• Designated “no go” areas built into flight control systems

Slide 9

Technology to protect the environment

• Use of fuel cells to provide aircraft electrical power on the ground

• Proper treatment of runoff water and better disposal of unpleasant substances both at the airport and in the manufacturing and disposal processes

• Better multi-modal linking to reduce congestion

Slide 10

The real problem is at 35,000’

Growth rates of 5-6% will result in a 4 fold increase fuel burn in the next 25 years

Can anyone believe that this could (or should) be allowed to happen?

Slide 11

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Slide 14

My conclusion is that aviation, as we know it today, is probably

non- sustainable.

What is the path for future development?

Slide 15

Is it this?

Slide 16

Or is it this?

Slide 17

Blended Wing Body

Slide 18

BWB versus Conventional

• With fully turbulent flow L/D better by up to 30% (better than a conventional aircraft with a laminar flow wing)

• Fuel burn per passenger seat mile up 25% (needs bigger engine)

• With laminar flow BWB has an L/D 4 times larger than a conventional a/c) These advantages are going to become hard to

ignore

Slide 19

Conclusions

• Technology has been used to solve many challenges over the past 50 years

• Emerging technologies can solve many of today’s issues. They can help deliver the “new way” for aviation and they can produce new business opportunities for a liberalised industry

• Most importantly, technology holds the key to the long term sustainability of civil aviation