the electricity technology transformation

The Electricity Technology Transformation

Barbara Tyran

Director, Washington Relations

Center for Energy Workforce Development

October 9, 2009

2© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Our Mission…

To conduct research onkey issues facing the

electricity sector…on behalf of its members, energy

stakeholders, and society.

3© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Our Members…

• 450+ participants in more than 40 countries

• EPRI members generate more than 90% of the electricity in the United States

• International funding of more than 15% of EPRI’s research, development and demonstrations

• Programs funded by more than 1,000 energy organizations

4© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

BasicBasicResearchResearch

andandDevelopmentDevelopment

TechnologyTechnologyCommercializationCommercialization

CollaborativeCollaborativeTechnologyTechnology

DevelopmentDevelopmentIntegrationIntegrationApplicationApplication

National Laboratories

Universities

Suppliers

Vendors

EPRI

Help Move Technologies to the Commercialization Stage…

Our Role…

Technology Accelerator!

5© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Presentation Overview

The Technology ChallengeDe-carbonize the electricity infrastructure and meet binding economy-wide CO2 reduction targets

Provide reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity

6© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Wh

ole

sale

Ele

ctri

cit

y C

os

t (2

007

cen

ts/k

Wh

)

Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh)

Cost

of

Ele

ctr

icit

y

De-Carbonization

2020

2050

The Technology Challenge

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70

2007

7© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Presentation Overview

The Technology Challenge

Meeting The Challenge

Decisions Over the Next Decade will

Shape the Electricity Future of 2050

De-carbonize the electricity infrastructure and meet binding economy-wide CO2 reduction targets

Provide reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity

Technically feasible with a full portfolio of generation options

8© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

The CO2 ChallengeB

illio

n t

on

s C

O2

Historical Emissions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

U.S. Electric Sector

Remainder of U.S.

Economy

83% Reduction in CO2

emissions from 2005

Assumed Economy-wide CO2 Reduction Target

2005 = 5982 mmT CO2

2012 = 3% below 2005 (5803 mmT CO2)

2020 = 17% below 2005 (4965 mmT CO2)

2030 = 42% below 2005 (3470 mmT CO2)

2050 = 83% below 2005 (1017 mmT CO2)

9© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Cen

ts/k

Wh

(in

200

7 ce

nts

)The Cost Challenge

Flat real electricity prices for past 40 years… what about the next 40 years?

U.S. Retail Price of Electricity

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

10© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Technology Challenge

Meeting the Challenge

The Electricity Technology Challenge

11© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S

. E

lect

ric

Sec

tor

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(mil

lio

n m

etri

c to

ns)

2007

2008

2009

U. S. Electric Sector CO2 Emissions

EIA Base Case

12© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

2009 Prism

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S

. E

lect

ric

Sec

tor

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(mil

lio

n m

etri

c to

ns)

Efficiency

Renewables

Nuclear

41% reduction in 2030 from 2005 level is technically feasible using a full portfolio of electric sector

technologies

41%CCS

Fossil Efficiency

Technology EIA Base Case EPRI Prism Target

Efficiency Load Growth ~ +0.95%/yr

8% Additional Consumption Reduction by 2030

T&D Efficiency None 20% Reduction in T&D Losses by 2030

Renewables

60 GWe by 2030 135 GWe by 2030 (15% of generation)

Nuclear12.5 GWe New Build by 2030

No Retirements; 10 GWe New Build by 2020; 64 GWe New Build by 2030

FossilEfficiency

40% New Coal,

54% New NGCCs by

2030

+3% Efficiency for 75 GWe Existing Fleet

49% New Coal; 70% New NGCCs by 2030

CCS None90% Capture for New Coal + NGCC

After 2020Retrofits for 60 GWe Existing Fleet

13© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

2009 Prism – PEV and Electro-Technologies

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S

. E

lect

ric

Sec

tor

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(mil

lio

n m

etri

c to

ns)

Efficiency

Renewables

Nuclear

CCS

Fossil Efficiency

Technology EIA AEO Base Case EPRI Prism Target

Electric Transportatio

nNone

PHEVs by 201040% New Vehicle Share by 2025

3x Current Non-Road Use by 2030

Electro-technologies None Replace ~4.5% Direct Fossil Use

by 2030

Low-carbon generation enables electrification and CO2 reductions in other

sectors of economy

Electro-Technologies

PEV

14© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Generation by Fuel Source in 2030

EIA 20304669 TWh

Prism 20304888 TWh

Prism 60% no- or low-carbon electricity by 2030

Coal

CoalNuclear

Nuclear

GasGas

Renw

Renw

C+CCS

50%

17%

19%

6%

7%

1%

Coal

Coal CCS

Petroleum

Gas

Gas CCS

Nuclear

Hydro

Renewables

28%

10%

11%2%

28%

6%

15%

What if we LIMIT the Generation PORTFOLIO?

What if we LIMIT the Generation PORTFOLIO?

15© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Technology Portfolios

Full Portfolio

Coal and Gas CCS available

Accelerated end-use efficiency

PEV’s can expand

Nuclear production can expand

Full Portfolio

Coal and Gas CCS available

Accelerated end-use efficiency

PEV’s can expand

Nuclear production can expand

Limited PortfolioNo CO2 capture and storage (CCS)

No plug-in electric vehicles (PEV’s)

Nuclear generation remains at existing levels

Limited PortfolioNo CO2 capture and storage (CCS)

No plug-in electric vehicles (PEV’s)

Nuclear generation remains at existing levels

16© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

MERGE Economic Model

Optimization Model of Economic Activity and Energy Use through 2050 – Maximize Economic Wealth

Inputs– Energy Supply Technologies and Costs

for Electric Generation and Non-Electric Energy

Constraints– Greenhouse Gas Control Scenarios– Energy Resources

Outputs– Economy-wide Impact of Technology and

Carbon Constraints

17© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

n k

Wh

pe

r y

ea

r

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

n k

Wh

pe

r y

ea

rMERGE U.S. Electric Generation Mix

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Coal

Gas

Wind

Demand Reduction

New Coal + CCSCoal

Gas

WindNuclear

Demand Reduction

Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

CCS Retrofit

Biomass

Hydro

Generation Mix Generation Mix

Aggressive Energy Efficiency Needed with Either Portfolio

52% Increase in Demand Reduction with Limited Portfolio

18© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

n k

Wh

pe

r y

ea

r

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

n k

Wh

pe

r y

ea

rMERGE U.S. Electric Generation Mix

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Coal

Gas

Wind

Demand Reduction

New Coal + CCSCoal

Gas

WindNuclear

Demand Reduction

Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

CCS Retrofit

Biomass

Hydro

19© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

n k

Wh

pe

r y

ea

r

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

n k

Wh

pe

r y

ea

r

Insights - Renewables

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Coal

Gas

Wind

Demand Reduction

New Coal + CCSCoal

Gas

WindNuclear

Demand Reduction

Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

CCS Retrofit

Biomass

Hydro

> 20% Renewables by 2030 with Either Portfolio

> 50% Renewables by 2050 with Limited Portfolio

20© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

n k

Wh

pe

r y

ea

r

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

n k

Wh

pe

r y

ea

r

Insights – Nuclear and CCS

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Coal

Gas

Wind

Demand Reduction

New Coal + CCSCoal

Gas

WindNuclear

Demand Reduction

Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

CCS Retrofit

Biomass

Hydro

Gas Expands Rapidly 2010-2020 if Uncertainty Exists

Regarding Availability of New Nuclear and CCS post 2020

Limited Portfolio – Gas Consumption Increases 275% from 2010 to 2050

21© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Wind

Biomass

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro

Coal CCSRetrofit

Wind

Biomass

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

Hydro

Coal + CCS

Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio

Remarkably different futures…and only 20 years away!

2030 Generation Mix

22© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Wind

Biomass

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro

Solar

Wind

Biomass

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro

Coal + CCS

Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio

Totally different futures in 2050

2050 Generation Mix

23© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost Results

2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$/M

wh

(20

07$

)

2020 2030 2040 2050

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

210%

80%

2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost

Substantial increases in the cost of electricity

2050

24© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Wh

ole

sale

Ele

ctri

cit

y C

os

t (2

007

cen

ts/k

Wh

)

Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh)

Cost

of

Ele

ctr

icit

y

De-Carbonization

2020

2050

MERGE De-carbonization Results

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70

2007

MERGE Projections 2020-2050

2020 2030

2040

205020202030

2040

2050

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

25© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Wh

ole

sale

Ele

ctri

cit

y C

os

t (2

007

cen

ts/k

Wh

)

Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh)

Cost

of

Ele

ctr

icit

y

De-Carbonization

20202030

2040

20502020

2030

2040

2050

MERGE De-carbonization Results

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70

2007

MERGE Projections 2020-2050

2020 2030

2040

205020202030

2040

2050

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

High Cost to meet 2050 Reduction Target with >80% Generation Mix

Gas and Renewables

26© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Technology Challenge

Meeting the Challenge

The Electricity Technology Challenge

27© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Meeting the Challenge

2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$/M

wh

(20

07$

)

2020 2030 2040 2050

2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

Technology Actions Based on Meeting the Prism Technology Targets

Technology Innovation to De-carbonize While Achieving a Cost of Electricity Near

Today’s Level

RD&D and Deployment Challenge

Innovation Challenge

28© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Power Delivery & Utilization: energy demand is increasing…

• 2008 Annual Energy Outlook -

– 30% increase in U.S. electricity consumption by 2030.

– New load equivalent to 2006 electricity usage in California, Texas, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvaniacombined!

29© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Bringing it home…Consumer Electronics

PLASMA TV SET TOP BOX

42”250W

30Wvs.

27”100W

Consumes 2.5x more energy

30W

==

2 set top boxes consume as much energy in one year as a

refrigerator

30© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Bringing the picture into focus…

Digital Photo Frames1 per U.S. home…

250 MW Power Plants*

*250 MW plant can serve 160,000 full homes

31© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

EPRI’s Living LaboratoryRecently Featured in TIME

32© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Smart Grid

• We are in the infancy in developing a smart grid

• Smart grid can mean different things to different utilities

• No standards for inclusive technologies

• Smart capabilities vary from utility to utility

State of the technology…

33© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Smart Grid

• Smart power delivery infrastructure encompassing physical power, storage, advanced information technology and intelligent sensors and applications

• Numerous impacts

– Reliable grid operations when connecting to renewable resources

– Dynamic grid adjustment to reduce losses and increase efficiency

– On-line assessment to minimize reliability events

Where we want to be…

34© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying a smart grid and how to create it…• Methodology, technology tools, and standards recommendations

• Information systems to support smart grid

applications

• Unbiased testing of technologies and products

• Development of communications architecture that will enable interoperability

IntelliGrid

35© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

EfficientBuildingSystems

UtilityCommunications

DynamicSystemsControl

DataManagement

DistributionOperations

DistributedGeneration& Storage

Plug-In Hybrids

SmartEnd-UseDevices

AdvancedMetering

Consumer Portal& Building EMS

Internet Renewables

PV

Smart Grids and Local Energy Networks

ControlInterface

36© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

EfficientBuildingSystems

UtilityCommunications

DynamicSystemsControl

DataManagement

DistributionOperations

DistributedGeneration& Storage

Plug-In Hybrids

SmartEnd-UseDevices

AdvancedMetering

Consumer Portal& Building EMS

Internet Renewables

PV

Smart Grids and Local Energy Networks

ControlInterface

37© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Electric Transportation

EfficientBuildingSystems

UtilityCommunications

DynamicSystemsControl

DataManagement

DistributionOperations

DistributedGeneration& Storage

Plug-In Hybrids

SmartEnd-UseDevices

ControlInterface

AdvancedMetering

Consumer Portal& Building EMS

Internet Renewables

PV

• PHEV technology is ready now

• Hybrids remain dependent on combustible fuels

• Existing challenges remain for fully electric vehicles

• All electric PHEV 40 mile range could meet the transportation requirements for 80% of vehicles

• Widespread adoption of PHEVs can reduce GHG emissions by 2050 the equivalent to removing 82.5 million passenger cars from the road

State of the technology…

38© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Action Framework… Four Evolving Infrastructures

Creating the Electricity Network of the Future

39© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Wh

ole

sale

Ele

ctri

cit

y C

os

t (2

007

cen

ts/k

Wh

)

Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh)

Cost

of

Ele

ctr

icit

y

De-Carbonization

20202030

2040

20502020

2030

2040

2050

Conclusion

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70

2007

MERGE Projections 2020-2050

2020 2030

2040

205020202030

2040

2050

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Electricity policy and technology actions over the next decade will to a great extent

shape the electricity future of 2050

Which Future Are You Creating?

40© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.Image from Image from NASA Visible EarthNASA Visible Earth