the effects of geomagnetic storms on power systems mary holleboom justin voogt engr w82 january 22,...
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The Effects of The Effects of Geomagnetic Storms on Geomagnetic Storms on
Power SystemsPower Systems
Mary HolleboomMary Holleboom
Justin VoogtJustin Voogt
ENGR W82ENGR W82
January 22, 2002January 22, 2002
OutlineOutline
1.1. Space weather backgroundSpace weather background
2.2. Effects on power systemsEffects on power systems
3.3. Case studiesCase studies
4.4. PredictionPrediction
5.5. Impact reductionImpact reduction
6.6. ConclusionsConclusions
DefinitionsDefinitions Space WeatherSpace Weather
– Geomagnetic storms, substorms, and auroras Geomagnetic storms, substorms, and auroras produced by ionized particles captured in the earth’s produced by ionized particles captured in the earth’s magnetic fieldmagnetic field
Solar WindSolar Wind– Motion of interplanetary ionized particles away from Motion of interplanetary ionized particles away from
the sun and towards the earththe sun and towards the earth
MagnetosphereMagnetosphere– Magnetic field produced by the earth that extends Magnetic field produced by the earth that extends
into spaceinto space
Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC)Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC)– Currents produced by sudden fluctuations in the Currents produced by sudden fluctuations in the
earth’s magnetic field during a geomagnetic stormearth’s magnetic field during a geomagnetic storm
BackgroundBackground
What is a Geomagnetic What is a Geomagnetic Storm?Storm?
Sudden production of Sudden production of intense GICsintense GICs
Ability to create instability Ability to create instability in earth’s magnetic fieldin earth’s magnetic field
11-year cycles11-year cycles VariationsVariations
– Duration (10s – several Duration (10s – several days)days)
– Daytime v. NighttimeDaytime v. Nighttime– SizeSize– FrequencyFrequency
BackgroundBackground
Coronal Mass Ejection Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)(CME)
Mass up to one Mass up to one billion metric tonsbillion metric tons
Temperature greater Temperature greater than one million Kthan one million K
Millions of km wideMillions of km wide Cause storms on Cause storms on
earth several days earth several days after leaving the sunafter leaving the sun
BackgroundBackground
Impact on Power SystemsImpact on Power Systems Disrupts power gridsDisrupts power grids GICs enter through GICs enter through
thousands of grounding thousands of grounding pointspoints
Transformer saturationTransformer saturation BlackoutsBlackouts Satellite malfunctionSatellite malfunction Radio transmission Radio transmission
disruptiondisruption High altitude aircraft High altitude aircraft
damagedamage Costs of transformers and Costs of transformers and
additional power purchaseadditional power purchase
EffectsEffects
Transformer Saturation / Transformer Saturation / BlackoutsBlackouts
GICs resemble slowly GICs resemble slowly varying DC currentsvarying DC currents
Saturation of Saturation of transformer coretransformer core
Harmonic levels Harmonic levels increasedincreased
Over 100A measured Over 100A measured in grounding in grounding connections of connections of affected areasaffected areas
Voltage regulation Voltage regulation capabilities capabilities overwhelmedoverwhelmed
Multiple power systems Multiple power systems affected simultaneouslyaffected simultaneously
Permanent damage to Permanent damage to network equipmentnetwork equipment
Up to 600% of normal Up to 600% of normal load drawn upon power load drawn upon power restorationrestoration
EffectsEffects
NOAA Weather ScalesNOAA Weather Scales
National Oceanic National Oceanic and Atmospheric and Atmospheric AdministrationAdministration
G scale of 1-5G scale of 1-5 Kp values 5-9Kp values 5-9 Frequency based Frequency based
on 11-year cycleson 11-year cycles
Physical Avg. FrequencyMeaure (1 cycle = 11 yrs)
Scale Descriptor Kp value Storm events/cycle(Days/cycle)
G5 Extreme 9 4 (4)G4 Severe 8 100 (60)G3 Strong 7 200 (130)G2 Moderate 6 600 (360)G1 Minor 5 1700 (900)
Category
EffectsEffects
March 13, 1989March 13, 1989 Entire Hydro Quebec power system Entire Hydro Quebec power system
collapsed due to G5 geomagnetic collapsed due to G5 geomagnetic stormstorm
6 million customers lost power6 million customers lost power Entire system collapsed in 90 Entire system collapsed in 90
secondsseconds Restoration took 9 hoursRestoration took 9 hours Total cost to Quebec: $13.2 millionTotal cost to Quebec: $13.2 million
Case StudiesCase Studies
March 13, 1989, cont.March 13, 1989, cont. Utilities throughout Utilities throughout
North America felt North America felt stormstorm
Several transformer Several transformer heating problemsheating problems
1,200 MVA 1,200 MVA transformer in New transformer in New Jersey destroyedJersey destroyed
Case StudiesCase Studies
July 15, 2000July 15, 2000 G5 Class geomagnetic stormG5 Class geomagnetic storm Kp of 9 for over nine hoursKp of 9 for over nine hours No significant power system No significant power system
damagedamage
Case StudiesCase Studies
Satellite ForecastingSatellite Forecasting 1998: Advanced Composition 1998: Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) launchedExplorer (ACE) launched Real-time solar wind monitoringReal-time solar wind monitoring Up to 1 hour warningUp to 1 hour warning
PredictionPrediction
Numerical ModelingNumerical Modeling
Inputs from Inputs from satellitesatellite– Magnetic field Magnetic field
magnitudemagnitude– Solar wind velocitySolar wind velocity– Solar wind densitySolar wind density
Models can predict Models can predict geomagnetic geomagnetic activityactivity
Goal: give client-Goal: give client-specific impact specific impact assessmentsassessments
ProblemsProblems– Modeling GICs is Modeling GICs is
very difficultvery difficult– False alarms are False alarms are
costlycostly
PredictionPrediction
Reducing the EffectsReducing the Effects ProblemsProblems
– Immense volume Immense volume of spaceof space
– Massive size of Massive size of power gridpower grid
– Devices to block Devices to block GIC flow would GIC flow would cost billions for cost billions for entire systementire system
Contingency Contingency StrategyStrategy– Reduce imported Reduce imported
powerpower– Disconnect links Disconnect links
between gridsbetween grids– Delay system Delay system
maintenancemaintenance– Put satellites to Put satellites to
“sleep”“sleep”
Impact ReductionImpact Reduction
ConclusionsConclusions
Current methods of predicting Current methods of predicting geomagnetic storms are becoming geomagnetic storms are becoming more accuratemore accurate
No feasible way of preventing No feasible way of preventing effectseffects
Low frequency of threats, but high Low frequency of threats, but high potential for damagepotential for damage
More research is necessaryMore research is necessary
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