the demographic dip - stackpole & associates...2010/04/14  · the “marketing metaphor” the...

The

Demographic

Dip:

“Birth Dearth” The Challenge of

Occupancies

presented by

Irving L. Stackpole

Copyright © 2014 by

Stackpole & Associates, Inc

The Challenge of Occupancy

Quantity of Demand

Quality of Demand

Supply – aging & contracting • No new supply

Hyper-competitive markets • Frontline

Responding to a declining market

Defend, protect & fortify

• Manage to Loyalty

Increase Productivity / Efficiency

Innovate

Differentiate

• Survival? Marketing & Sales

Responding to a Declining Market

Matching Supply & Demand

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“There are 7 ways to

defeat. The first of these

is the failure to count.”

Supply & Demand = Occupancy

Occupancy rates (SNF) = excess

capacity

SNF beds

Occupancy declining – in all

categories

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Occupancy Data

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Overview

Supply-Demand = Occupancy

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Currently ~ 87%

In its study of falling inpatient admissions, Milliman estimated that, in all markets

of the United States, the rate of inpatient admission per 1,000 population would

decline through 2021. This would be true whether, in a specific market, care

could be defined as “loosely,” “moderately,” or “well” managed. The chart above

shows the 10-year trend line. (Chart was published by Health Affairs

What’s the problem?

Why are occupancies

declining?

Is “Marketing” that bad?

Is “Sales” that bad?

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2014

Born 1927

87 yoa

2022

Born 1935

87 yoa

2017

Born 1930

87 yoa

Where is the demand?

Demand for Arthroplasty

17

209 253

384

572 450 663

1520

3481

40.8 47.8

67.6 96.7 38.3 55.3 121

268

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Nu

mber

of

pati

en

ts (x

1,0

00

)

Year

Primary total hiparthroplasty

Primary total kneearthroplasty

Revision total hiparthroplasty

Revision total kneearthroplasty

We are Here

Est. GAIN ~300,000

Care for Persons w/ Dementias

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Medicare/Medicaid Costs per year (billions of dollars)

Inflection Point

We are Here

The “mood” of the market?

Employment & Income…

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Comparing Recessions

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Associates, Inc.

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Associates, Inc.

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Culture… Negativity

Sector NOT thought of as the valuable

resource it is …

They are seen as prisons – awful places

– The “F” word

– “Don’t want to put / place mom in a nursing

home.”

– “I’d rather be dead.”

Deep metaphor of negativity

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Reducing Objections

The “marketing metaphor”

The current dominant position of the sector

The words and metaphors

Change the metaphor – change the “listening”

Verbal content

Visual content

Channels

– Putting it all together

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Do these words “work”?

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Responding to a declining market

Defend, protect & fortify

• Manage to Loyalty

Increase Productivity / Efficiency

Innovate

Differentiate

Current position

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Protect / Defend –Loyalty

– Customer v. Consumer

Is this consistent with what we are “saying”?

Service Error Recovery

– Identify the errors

– Apologize

– Offer solution

– Do what you said you would

– Remind

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Responding to a declining market

Purchase decision cycle – Time?

Pull through

– Case Managers

– Consumers

– Doctors

Outputs for Inputs

– Productivity ≠ Staff Reductions

Productivity

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How to Innovate / Add Efficiencies

– Plan Ahead

Disease burden = Opportunity

MCOs / DMCs / ACOs

– Match Strengths w/ Pain

– Seek – Younger / Larger / Underserved

– Doctors

Productivity

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How to Innovate / Add Efficiencies

Ways to be fast

– Technology &

– Decision Cycle Transformation

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How to Innovate / Add Efficiencies

Ways to be better

Hospitals

– Resident & Family satisfaction data

– Clinical outcomes

– Speak their language

– Partner with your pharmacy & rehab

providers

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Associates, Inc.

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How to Innovate / Add Efficiencies

KNOW your Staff

RESEARCH

Employees

– Key to reducing costs / increasing outputs

– Are we getting more staff?

– Staff produce “patient / family experience”

– Staff produce Quality & Value

Facts of Life

The age qualified market is shrinking

Younger markets are not large enough

Continued pressure on payments

Continued pressure on utilization

MARKETING - most important

organizational function for the next 5+

years

Responding – “Maintenance”

Facilitate Access (faster, easier)

Fortify, Protect & Defend

• Loyalty = Error Recovery

Productivity & Efficiency

• (≥ output, ≤ labor)

Innovation & Differentiation

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Call or email Irving Stackpole

+1-617-739-5900, Ext. 11

istackpole@StackpoleAssociates.com

www.StackpoleAssociates.com

Stackpole & Associates, Inc.

Bibliography

45

Albrecht K. and Zemke, R. Service America. New York: Warner Books, Inc. 1985

Bruner II, G.C. , James, K.E., and Hansel, P.J. Marketing Scales Handbook: A

compilation of multi-item measures, volume iii. Chicago: American Marketing

Association. 2001

Chase, R & Dasu, S. Want to perfect your company’s services?: Use behavioral

science. Harvard Business Review June, 2001.

Cialdini, R. Influence: The psychology of persuasion. New York: Quill. 1993

Johnson, M & Gustafsson, A. Improving customer satisfaction, loyalty and profit: An

integrated measurement and management system. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

2000

Parasuraman, Zeithaml and Berry. A conceptual model of service quality and its

implications for future research. Journal of Marketing. 1985 Fall:41-50.

Bibliography

46

Reichheld, F The Loyalty Effect: The hidden forces behind growth, profits, and lasting

value. Boston: Harvard University Press. 1996

Stackpole. I. & Ziemba, E. Make Your Marketing P-P-P-P-Perfect, Care Management

Matters, April 2008

Stackpole, I. & Ziemba, E. It’s Not What Your Say – It’s What People Hear!, Care

Management Matters, June, 2008

Zaltman, G, Zaltman, L, Marketing Metaphoria: What deep metaphors reveal about

the minds of consumers. Boston, Harvard Business Press 2008

Ziemba, E. Email Campaigns that Work. Care Management Matters, April, 2009

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