the contribution of fusion to sustainable development d j ward euratom/ukaea fusion association,...

The Contribution of Fusion to Sustainable The Contribution of Fusion to Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment

D J Ward

EURATOM/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, UK

This work was jointly funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and by EURATOM

OutlineOutline

The Challenge Resource Availability Emissions Waste Safety Costs and Investment Conclusions

Information derived from detailed technical work around power plant and socio-economic studies. Only summary in each area is given here.

The Challenge

How can the world continue to develop and poor economies grow, without excessive “cost”, whether economic, environmental or other?

Human Development Index (health, education, GNP…)Human Development Index (health, education, GNP…)

For all developing countries to reach this point, would need world energy use to double with today’s population, or increase 2.6 fold with the 8.1billion expected in 2030

Even if developed countries came down to this

point the factors would be 1.8 today, 2.4 in 2030

Goal (?)

Example of Excessive CostExample of Excessive Cost

London smog (pollution event) Cost associated with industrialisation but overcome by

regulation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17

December 1952

Nu

mb

er o

f d

eath

s

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

SO

2-C

on

cen

trat

ion

[p

pm

]

Death

SO2-Concentration

Thousands die in single pollution episode.

Source: Wilkins

Example Where Lack of Development Example Where Lack of Development Imposes Excessive CostImposes Excessive Cost

Developing country biomass use generates indoor particulates.

Up to 2.5 million premature deaths each year, mostly women and children

Cost associated with insufficient or inappropriate development

Source: WHO

Growth in Energy Use is EnormousGrowth in Energy Use is Enormous

•Source: BP

In the last 2 years growth in Chinese consumption has exceeded total German consumption

Primary Energy (Mtoe)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Germany

China

India

Predicted Energy Growth Primarily in Predicted Energy Growth Primarily in Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries

10

12

14

16

18

20Gtoe

Developing countriesFSU/CEEOECD

0

2

4

6

8

1860

Source: World Energy Council, World Bank.The graph for the period 2000-2060 shows a scenario of future energy consumption based on current trends.

1880 1900 19801940 20201920 20001960 2040 2060

This assumes no increase in OECD energy consumption (efficiency improvement balances growth)

Big QuestionsBig Questions

How will this rising demand continue to be met?

What is the impact of the rising demand (on health etc)

Can fusion contribute?

China Fuel Consumption 2005China Fuel Consumption 2005

In business as usual scenarios, most world energy will be supplied by coal by 2100Source: BP, ECN

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

oil

eq

uiv

ale

nt

Air Pollution in CitiesAir Pollution in Cities

Source: OECD Environmental data 1995, WRI China tables 1995, Central Pollution Control Board, Delhi. "Ambient Air QualityStatus and Statistics, 1993 and 1994", Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the World, WHO/UNEP, 1992, EPA, AIRSdatabase.

0

100

WHO Guidelines

200

300

400

500

600

700

800annual mean concentration, ug/m3

MexicoCity

Mexico

BeijingChina

XianChina

JilinChina

CalcuttaIndia

DelhiIndia

JakartaIndonesia

BangkokThailand

TokyoJapan

New YorkUSA

World Bank estimates coal pollution leads to 300,000 early deaths in China each year

Paradox of Increasing Energy Demand but Paradox of Increasing Energy Demand but Reducing Carbon EmissionsReducing Carbon Emissions

0

1000

2000

3000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Time

En

erg

y (

EJ

/ye

ar)

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(G

t/y

ea

r)Energy (EJ/year)

CO2 (Gt/year)

World energy growth predicted to continue but CO2 should plateau and decline to keep atmospheric content below e.g. 550 ppm. Decoupling energy and CO2 will require dramatic changes in energy systems.Source: IPCC

How Large is the Carbon Challenge?How Large is the Carbon Challenge?

This is very challenging, e.g. fission capacity x15

This is extremely difficultSource: Sokolow

Resource Availability

Ultimate Fuel Resource for Ultimate Fuel Resource for Different Energy SystemsDifferent Energy Systems

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

oil gas Coal U Breeder Lithium

Ye

ars

of

Wo

rld

en

erg

y s

up

ply

Lower resource

Upper resource

New Resource

Large resources in coal, fission breeder and fusion. Solar provides a large resource as well.Source: WEC, BP, USGS, WNA

Other MaterialsOther Materials

Although fusion fuels appear essentially unlimited, we should take care not to be too dependent on other scarce resources. Examples often quoted are tantalum (used as an alloying element in low activation steels) and Beryllium.

On the other hand, materials procurement is a small fraction of the cost of fusion electricity so large increases in the price of raw materials could be tolerated.

Emissions

Radiological Hazard of Different Sources of EnergyRadiological Hazard of Different Sources of Energy

0

20

40

60

80

100

food

(K-4

0)

fissio

n (C

-14)

geot

herm

al (R

n-22

2)

coal

(K-4

0, U

238,

Th2

32)

gas

fusio

n (C

-14,

H-3

)

doub

le gl

azing

ma

nS

v/G

Wy

ea

r

2000 1500

Food column is indicative of background effects – not directly comparable to others. Double glazing is due to effect of reduced ventilation on indoor radon.Source: UNSCEAR, NRPB

Hazard Including Other RisksHazard Including Other Risks

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

bio

ma

ss in

de

velo

pin

gco

un

trie

s (a

irp

ollu

tion

)

coa

l (a

irp

ollu

tion

)

foo

d(r

ad

ioa

ctiv

ity)

fissi

on

(ra

dio

act

ivity

)

coa

l(r

ad

ioa

ctiv

ity)

fusi

on

(ra

dio

act

ivity

)

Re

lati

ve

ha

rm

3000

Conventional energy hazards are enormously greater than fusion hazards.Source: WHO, UNSCEAR, NRPB, EC (ExternE)

Waste

Potential Harm from Waste MaterialsPotential Harm from Waste Materials

Comparison of Potential Ingestion Dose from various power sources

1.0E-07

1.0E-06

1.0E-05

1.0E-04

1.0E-03

1.0E-02

1.0E-01

1.0E+00

1.0E+01

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Time after final shutdown (y)

Rad

ioto

xici

ty In

dex

(In

ges

tion

) Coal

PWR

EFR A

EFR B

Model A

Model B

Model C

Model D

Model AB

Radiological hazard from fusion materials decays rapidly, with half life of around 10 years.Source: PPCS

Specific Example - Carbon-14Specific Example - Carbon-14

Carbon-14 is produced naturally in the atmosphere by cosmic ray bombardment of nitrogen.

Nitrogen in a fusion plant undergoes the same effect, but with much larger fluxes.

To keep C-14 production well below natural level requires nitrogen concentrations at or below 100 ppm.

This is true of some materials and not others, so choices can be important– SS-316 600 ppm– OPSTAB 3,000 ppm– RAFM <100 ppm

C-14 Lifetime Production from PPCS Plant ModelsC-14 Lifetime Production from PPCS Plant Models

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

A B C D

PPCS Plant Model

To

tal C

-14

pro

du

cti

on

(P

Bq

)

Model D combines SiC with a tungsten carbide shieldSource: PPCS

Safety

Releases in AccidentReleases in Accident

Bounding accident analysis, combines the worst outcome in each area.

Releases still small and doses to the public small.

Model Dose

A 1.2 mSv

B 18.1 mSv

Compared with approximately 4 mSv average background in EUSource: PPCS

TritiumTritium

One of the main hazards in an accident Maximum possible releases from an internal accident

are a few 10’s of grammes. Doses to local population are, in the worst case, too low

for evacuation to be considered. An external accident, e.g. enormous earthquake, could

potentially release more but the consequences of the event itself would be much more serious than any releases from the plant.

Source: PPCS, SEAFP

Costs and Investment

Costs Reduce Through R&D and ScaleCosts Reduce Through R&D and Scale

1

10

100

1000

10000

1.00E+02 1.00E+04 1.00E+06 1.00E+08 1.00E+10

Fusion Power (W)

Cap

ital

Co

st p

er W

($/

Wp)

CMODCOMPASS

DIIID

JET

ITER

ITER98

Power Plant

GW scale devices projected to be in few $/W rangePower which would be produced if non-DT devices were to use DT

Technological Learning Reduces Costs Technological Learning Reduces Costs Through ExperienceThrough Experience

Source: Solarbuzz

Large Volatility in Energy MarketsLarge Volatility in Energy Markets

EU ETS Carbon price €/tonne CO2

Factor of 3 in 1 week

World oil price

Factor of 7 in 7 years

The target for a future energy price is very uncertain.

Source: NYMEX

Direct Cost Comparison with Direct Cost Comparison with Other Future ProjectionsOther Future Projections

Large uncertainty inherent in projections. Include projected fuel price increases but no carbon tax. Wind is near term technology but no standby or storage costs.

Source: “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity” IEA, 1998 Update, PPCS

0

5

10

15

20

CCGT Fission Wind Fusion

coe(

€cen

ts/k

Wh

)

lower

upper

How Can Fusion Contribute to a How Can Fusion Contribute to a Future Energy Market?Future Energy Market?

0

2.5

5

7.5

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

22.5

25

Electricity production

[EJe]

SOLARWIND TURBINESBIOMASS/WASTEFUSION POWERNUCLEARNATURAL GASCOALHYDRO

In a CO2 constrained scenario, fusion can enter the Western Europe energy market as coal is progressively excluded. Situation for the world is more stringent as shown by initial results of new model – EFDA/TIMES.

Source: ECN

What Approach Should be Taken to Bring What Approach Should be Taken to Bring New Energy Systems to Market?New Energy Systems to Market?

Introduction of new energy sources is essential. This requires effort at all points in the chain - Research,

Development, Demonstration and Deployment is essential.

Fusion (if successful) is a good option for large-scale deployment globally, because of its enormous fuel resource and favourable safety and environmental characteristics.

Is Enough Being Done?Is Enough Being Done?

Public Sector Energy R&D is a negligible fraction of the world energy spend. Fusion is a small part of that negligible fraction. Source: IEA, BP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Public Energy R&D

Other

Fusion

Fission

Renew ables

Fossil

Conservation

0.E+00

1.E+06

2.E+06

3.E+06

4.E+06

Es

tim

ate

d E

ne

rgy

Ma

rke

t (M

$)

Public R&D

renew ables

electricity (ex fuel)

coal

gas

oil

Is Enough Being Done - UK?Is Enough Being Done - UK?

Overall energy R&D is far too low - less than 0.3% of market – to achieve a transformation in the energy markets.

UK Parliament Science and Technology Committee 2003 “expenditure on energy research has been pitiful”

0.00E+00

2.00E+10

4.00E+10

6.00E+10

8.00E+10

1.00E+11

1.20E+11

UK Fusion UK electricity BP turnover

An

nu

al s

pen

d (

£)

ConclusionsConclusions

World energy consumption is likely to more than double even if OECD countries cap their energy consumption.Continuing business as usual implies a large increase in CO2 emissions and other pollutants globally.There is an enormous potential market for low pollution, low carbon energy sources, such as fusion.Fusion has very large benefits in terms of resources, environmental impact, safety and waste materials.We must focus on demonstrating fusion as a power source, ensuring these benefits are optimised, at the same time ensuring costs are reasonable.The world is not putting sufficient effort into energy R&D if we are to achieve the transformation in energy markets that is needed.