the consumer’s thirst for bandwidth – a cable operator’s ... · source: bain & company...
Post on 12-Jul-2020
8 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
The consumer’s thirst for bandwidth –A cable operator’s perspective
Eric J. TveterManaging Director, Cablecom GmbH
EUROFORUM December 2nd / 3rd 2009
We can do better than that
2
33
The digital home is here today – but consumers ask for more
44
New applications require an increase in bandwidth
Video on demand
HDTV
File sharing
Video streaming
Online gaming
55
Today’s innovators tell us what will be standard tomorrow
Generation “Born Digital”
Trendsetters: e.g. iPod, iPhone
Heavy users: 80 % of bandwidth is consumed by less than 10 % of users*
The key is to fulfill customer needs.Today and tomorrow.
* Source: Bain & Company report “Next Generation Competition – Driving Innovation in Telecommunications”
66
How can we fulfill customers’ needs?
How much bandwidth is enough and what will it cost?
Evolution vs. revolution
Demand drives evolution
Sound economic modelSatisfying needsWith reasonable costsWithin a reasonable timeframe
77
High bandwidth applications growing fastest
Source: Bain & Company report “Next Generation Competition – Driving Innovation in Telecommunications”
High bandwidth applications
”What activity do you engage in when accessing the internet?”
Low bandwidth applications
0
20
40
60
80
100%
% of respondents
Surf theweb
2008
2006
E-mail Onlinebanking
Downloadsoftware
Onlinegaming
Buy/reserve/
sell products/services
Down-loadmusic
Streaming Chat Down-load
videos
Maintainwebsite/weblog
5% 50% -8%8% 21% 76% 38% 15% 30% 35% -9%Increase 06-08(as % of 06)
88
Note: Assumes MPEG 4 video compression
Concurrent usage will likely not exceed 40 Mbit/s
Upper range
Source: Bain & Company report “Next Generation Competition – Driving Innovation in Telecommunications”
0
10
20
30
40
Phone0.2
1.0
Gaming
1.5
Data
8.0
P2P
2.0
IP-TV
VoDSDTVHDTV
8.0
AllApplica-tions
~20
8.0
8.0
Fullhousehold
~30-35
(Cumulative) download bandwidth (Mbit/s)
Extra HDTVor parallelrecording
Extravideo
Simulation
Demand will vary by segment andby country
The ”consumer sweet spot”is 40 – 50 Mbit/s
99
ADSL2+25 Mbps
LTE>
Theoretically 100 Mbps
HSPA+42 Mbps
UMTS2 Mbps
EDGE384 kbps
= fixed line = wireless/mobile = cable
DOC-SIS 2.0~25-30 Mbps
ADSL8 Mbps
VDSL50 Mbps
= other
Today
DOC-SIS 3.0 100-200
Mbps
Technology is just one major limit – time for rollout is the other
Source: Bain & Company report “Next Generation Competition – Driving Innovation in Telecommunications”
Illustrative
0.10.2
0.512
51020
50100200
5001,000
2005 2010 2015
Fixed line and mobile bandwidth advances (Mbit/s)
FTTH>500 Mbps
ISDN128 kbps
2000
GPRS140 kbps
Sat
HSPA14 Mbps
Power-line
DOC-SIS 3.0
400 Mbps
Note: Maximum bandwidth shown for network technologies
10
Global Backbone
Head end
Data + TVBackbone
CoaxFiber
Local nodeHub
Cablecom’s network is 95% fiber – today!
1111
Migration to fiber bandwidths will thus be spearheaded by cable
Note: Likely cost is consensus of experts and current experience; High end of cable build-out assumes green field network* For fiber/cable per subscribed household;
Bottom estimateUpper estimateLikely cost
Rural areaUrban area
Source: Bain & Company report “Next Generation Competition – Driving Innovation in Telecommunications”
Estimate
0
750
1,500
2,250
FttH
375
~930
CableDocsis 3.0
98
~975
LTE
240
~2’250
FttH
577
2’250+
CableDocsis 3.0
120
~1’200
LTE
240
~1’950
Economics oftechnologies
different(CHF
access per subscriber*)
12
Cablecom is ”present proof” and rolling out high bandwidths today
Q4/ 12
100
Q3/ 12
Q2/ 12
Q1/ 12
Q4/ 11
Q3/ 11
100
Q2/ 11
100
Q1/ 11
96
Q4/ 10
95
Q3/ 10
95
Q2/ 10
30%
Q1/ 10
90
Q4/ 09
86
Q3/ 09
81
Q2/ 09
76
Q1/ 09
70
Q4/ 08
58
Q3/ 08
54
90%
46
Q1/ 08
38
80%
70%
60%
94
50%
40%
20%
10%
100%
0%Q2/ 08
Video on DemandFiber PowerCapacity expansion
ForecastFttH-coverage
Today
12
1313
Switzerland is ”top of Europe” in terms of speed
% above 2 Mbit/s % above 5 Mbit/s
AveragespeedQ1/2009
6.9 5.4 5.1 5.7 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.4 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.7 4.1 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.6
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Swe-den
79%
Nether-lands
81%
Den-mark
85%
Switzer-land
92%
Bel-gium
90%
CzechRepublic
78%
Norway
77%
Ger-many
85%
Iceland
81%
Austria
68%
Por-tugal
76%
Finland
50%
UK
80%
Ireland
52%
France
78%
Greece
53%
Italy
66%
Spain
64%
49%
36% 36% 34% 34% 33%
25% 23% 25%19% 19% 19%
11% 10% 10% 8%5% 4%
Source: Bain & Company report “Next Generation Competition – Driving Innovation in Telecommunications”
14
Fiber Power bandwidth is available today
1515
Competition assures efficient allocation of funds
Source: Handelszeitung, November 18th, 2009, Pg. 3
Discussion around FttH is getting more differentiated
Bain: ”Prices to rise by 60%”Avenir Suisse: ”Mid-term bandwidth demand can be covered by both FttHand cable.”
Competing infrastructures will make sure money is spentwisely
We expect public discussion to start focusing on economics ofboth FttB and FttH
1616
A number of challenges remain
Maintain infrastructure competitionGuarantor for bandwidthLong-term back to monopoly
Fair competitive environmentWho pays so that ”de facto” subsidiesdo not distort competition?
Advanced digital services choice for rural areas
How can digital divide be prevented?
1717
Cablecom is ”Changing for You”
Invested over CHF 1 bio intoSwiss infrastructure
Launched Fiber Power 100Mbps
Completes rollout by early 2011
Carefully examines consumer demand
Focuses on people and service
Launched ”Changing for You”
1818
Thank you for your attention
top related