the changing research and development agenda

The changing research and development agenda

Presentation to IFPRI BoardTervuren May 14 – 2008

Mi h l G iff (ANR P i )Michel Griffon (ANR, Paris)

1. Long term perspective of food needs• Using P. Collomb’s data base (1998), food

production have to double from 2000 toproduction have to double from 2000 to 2050.

• Long term production increase depends of• Long term production increase depends of = land availability * water availability *current yields * capital accumulation *technology availability * prices input/outputtechnology availability * prices input/output

* reactivity of societies.

• Comparing regional long term perspectives (LT• Comparing regional long term perspectives (LT comparative advantages):– Asia will be a major importer (China);Asia will be a major importer (China);– WANA also;– SSA could feed itself but with a low increase of

per capita food ratio;– Latin America will be a major exporter (Brazil,

Argentina) but with important ecological risks;Argentina) but with important ecological risks;– Canada and Russia could benefit from climate

change and increase their export capacity;– USA and EU could increase also but in low

proportions.

• First conclusion: L t (2050) l b l f d b d i– Long term (2050) global food abundance is not totally guaranteed;

– But no reason to become Malthusian and– But no reason to become Malthusian and prophesy famines

– But the constraints [needs for biodiversity [ ypreservation (reduction of available land), for climate adaptation, risk of water scarcity, of social unresponsiveness] are so importantsocial unresponsiveness] are so important that there is a potential risk for temporary food scarcity,y

– and possibly a slow long term increase of food prices (after one century of slow price

d ti )reduction).

2 Two scarcity accelerators2. Two scarcity accelerators

• China’s middle class consumptionChina s middle class consumption(meat) and probably India to follow;

• Biofuel perspectives (first generation)Biofuel perspectives (first generation)=> Leading to world food prices increase

(signal)(signal)

• And increased risks of natural disaster:• And increased risks of natural disaster: Australian drought, Myanmar hurricane…

=> More prices volatility?=> More prices volatility?

3. With 2 decades of Structural Adj f bl i lAdjustment unfavorable to agriculture

• Structural adjustment was necessaryStructural adjustment was necessary,• But it has been adverse to agriculture.

D h d d id t i lt• Donors have reduced aid to agriculture.• It is probably the main reason for yields

plateauing in many Green Revolution areas...

• and for world stocks reduction…=> giving other MT-LT signals of scarcity> giving other MT LT signals of scarcity.

4. And public policies favoring cities d di f i i land disfavoring agriculture

• Governments are under pressure of theGovernments are under pressure of the street

• Import has always been a lucrativeImport has always been a lucrative business for Governments

• Farmers are very often considered as aFarmers are very often considered as a backward society unable to change

• Farmers have no power on markets andFarmers have no power on markets and prices.

=> Reduced supply elasticity? Reduced supply elasticity?

5. At the same time, energy prices i iare increasing

• With direct transmission of energy pricesWith direct transmission of energy prices to agriculture production costs:

Increase of tillage costs– Increase of tillage costs– And N, P, K (energy, transport, future scarcity

of deposits?)of deposits?)=> Big changes in technology become

inevitableinevitable.

6 Pollutions have to be reduced6. Pollutions have to be reduced• N: leaching, water pollution, greenhouseg p g• P, K: water pollution

Ph i l l• Phytosanitary molecules:– Problems of health for producers– Problems of health for consumers, leading to moreProblems of health for consumers, leading to more

restrictive future standards– Less efficiency duration of pesticides (because of

biological resistance)g )

=> Need for new technology.

7. A new equationq• Produce more food (and feed, fuel, fibre?),• With higher yieldsWith higher yields,• In all kinds of agriculture, mainly poor,• With higher input prices,With higher input prices,• With climate change (particularly water scarcity)

and need for adaptation,• With a big technical change (tillage, fertilizing,

crop protection –and animal),B i i t f i dl d i• Being environment friendly –producing ecological services,

• But with better prices (if good price transmission)• But with better prices (if good price transmission)

It defines and agricultural mutation l i (C )or revolution (Conway)

• With technical aspects: conservationWith technical aspects: conservation agriculture, agroecology, ecoagriculture, evergreen revolution doubly greenevergreen revolution, doubly green revolution…

• With agriculture policy accompaniment• With agriculture policy accompanimentwith appropriate incentives : income stability farm investment infrastructurestability, farm investment, infrastructure investment, transition costs…

8. Some basic elements of a h d i h lresearch agenda in technology

• Defining “ecologically intensive” systems• Defining ecologically intensive systems• Soil: metagenomics, no tillage, intensification of

natural nutrient cycles, C sequestration, water iconservation…

• Innovative spatial cropping patterns and arrangementsarrangements

• Develop integrated pest management• Molecular biotechnology for pest management• Crop design (all kinds of biotechnologies incl. GMO)• LT Landscape ecology planning

E l i l i• Ecological services

Mucuna: First used in banana plantations, this aggressive l i b d i C t l A i i t ilegouminous can now be used in Central America in mountain slopes.

Honduras

Rice and arachis « cooperation »

Niger- KeïtaT h l i it ti ti b hTechnology imitating « tiger bush »

Australia MedicagoAustralia Medicago troncatula Doubly Green Revolution

Cotton : Direct sawing in mulch

Fungus atack on an insect INRA Patureau

Virus destroying a caterpilar (H. de Conchard INRA)

9. Some basic elements for a d l ddevelopment agenda

• Define world, regional and national nested strategies for food g gsecurity reversing policies that are adverse to agriculture, and adapting to climate change;

• Define a new system for price stabilization (reduction ofDefine a new system for price stabilization (reduction of fluctuations);

• Invest in agriculture infrastructure:Market infrastructure– Market infrastructure

– Landscape infrastructure (green frameworks)– Farm infrastructure

Ed ti– Education.• Introduce in WTO concerns about long term ecological

dumping.

All this would need an international discussion and agreementdiscussion and agreement…