the basic lines of scientific research into water resources

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The basic lines of scientific research into

water resources

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The basic lines of scientific research into water resources

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT UNDER LIFECONDITIONED TRANSFORMATION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE MODEL “CLIMATE-RUNOFF”

DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC BASE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT DURING FORMATION OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODS ON

THE RIVERS

TERRITORIAL LONG-TERM FORECAST OF MAXIMUM RIVER RUNOFF RESULTING FROM MELTING OF SNOW AND

PRECIPITATION

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WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

IN UKRAINE UNDER IN UKRAINE UNDER

LIFECONDITIONED TRANSFORMATION LIFECONDITIONED TRANSFORMATION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON

THE BASIS OFTHE BASIS OF

“ “CLIMATE – RUNOFF” MODEL CLIMATE – RUNOFF” MODEL

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PROJECT GOAL:

To present efficiency of To present efficiency of

““climate – runoff” model climate – runoff” model

in evaluation of water management in evaluation of water management transformation consequencestransformation consequences

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Project Members:

Department of Land Hydrology, Odessa State Environmental University, 15

Lvovskaya Street, Odessa 65016, UkraineHead of the Department of Land

Hydrology – Eugen D. Gopchenko Leader of the Project– professor Nataliya S. Loboda (loboda@paco.net)

Phone: 326-746 e-mail: gidro@ogmi.farlep.odessa.ua

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“CLIMATE-RUNOFF” MODEL

Climatic factors (precipitation, temperature)

Underlying surface (swamps, lakes, cavern water, soil)

Annual natural runoff

Lifeconditioned runoff

Water management actions(irrigation, drainage, swift

transference of water, creation of artificial reservoirs)

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PRINCIPAL QUESTIONS

How do you estimate natural water resources?

How do you take into account climatic changes in runoff calculations?

How do you estimate runoff changes as a result of simultaneous global warning

and water management transformation?

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Hydrological system under anthropogenic influence

Hydrological system under anthropogenic influence can be described by means of the classical mechanics master equation of the Liuville type as follows:

dY—+ L(Λ,Y)= εdtY(t) = Y(t0)-S L(Λ,Y)dt +S ε dt У (t0 ) - natural flow; Y(t ) - anthropogenic flow; ε - external effect caused global warming; L - operator of life-conditioned influence describing flow changes under water-management transformations (irrigation, additional evaporation from water surface of artificial water reservoirs, regenerated flow).

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Annual Climatic Norms of Runoff Calculated by Meteorological Data

Zones of surplus (Yk140 мм), sufficient (30Yk <140 мм) and

insufficient (Yk<30 мм) humidity

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Norm of Climatic Annual Runoff Characterizes Water Resources under Natural State

Scheme of Irrigative System in the South of Ukraine

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Norm of Climatic Annual Runoff Characterizes Water Resources under Natural State

Critical scales f (%) of water surface in artificial reservoirs inthe south – western Ukraine under initial climatic conditions

Norms of climaticrunoff,mm

Critical scales f (%) ,under decreasing water resources

10% 50% 70%*

30 0,7 4,0 6,5

20 0,5 3,0 5,0

10 0,3 2,0 3,7•Destruction of Water System

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Influence of Global Warming on the Natural Resources of Ukraine

0 .00

400 .00

800 .00

1200 .00

0 1 2 3

E m ; X ;Y ,м м

Resources of humidity (X), Resources of warmth and water resources (Y) in the central part of Ukraine under climatice conditions within the latest century and in accordance with the scenarios (1,2,3), (0) being the initial stage of

global warmingMaximum decrease of water resources comprises 25%, according to

the Script 1

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Response Functions for Long Time Average of Annual Response Functions for Long Time Average of Annual Lifeconditioned Runoff of CatchmentsLifeconditioned Runoff of Catchments

The figure shows response functions for long time average (norm) of annual lifeconditioned runoff of catchments, situated on the Crimea pensula’s plain. Ordinates of these dependences are coefficients, characterizing changes to the norms of runoff under conditions of additional inflow from agricultural areas, irrigated by water of North Crimean Canal. The figure illustrates increasing norms of lifeconditioned runoff with growing areas of irrigation . If The anthropogenic effect depends on the level of optimal moistening of soil. At present time small rivers of the Crimean pensula’s plain are drainage canals. The red line shows the level of essential changes of runoff norms equal to 10%.

0 2 4 6 8 1 0

0.9 0

1.0 0

1.1 0

1.2 0

1.3 0

1.4 0

1.5 0

1.6 0

1.7 0

1.8 0

1.9 0

f ,%

K y

V 0= 1 .0

V 0= 0 .9

V 0= 0 .8

и з м е н е н и я , п р ев ы ш а ю щ и е 1 0 %

LY

0V

NY

LYYk

0f NYLY

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DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC BASE DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC BASE ANDAND

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WATER RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENTRESOURCE MANAGEMENT DURING FORMATION OF DURING FORMATION OF

CATASTROPHICCATASTROPHIC FLOODS ON THE RIVERS FLOODS ON THE RIVERS

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DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA PHENOMENA

FLOODFLOODSPRINGSPRINGFLOODFLOOD

DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA PHENOMENA

WINTERSUMMER AUTUMN SPRING

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OSENU OSENU TECHNIQUE FOR ACCOUNT OF THE MAXIMTECHNIQUE FOR ACCOUNT OF THE MAXIMUMUM RUNOFFRUNOFF OF THE RIVERS OF THE RIVERS

SCHEME OF STREAMFLOW GENERATION

Precipitation

Slope influx

q` m

Channel and flood plain

storage

Time lag of the flood wave

Channel runoff

q m

Lakes, Reservoirs

Forest

Swamp

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GENERAL STRUCTURE OF A DESIGN MODEL

rF)T/t(qq 0pmm , (1)

MAXIMUM SPECIFIC DISCHARGE OF SLOPE INFLUX

0

%1pm T

Y

n

1nkq

(2)

TRANSFORMATION FUNCTION OF FLOOD

a) for 0<tp/T0<1.0 n

0

p

1

10p T

t

)1nm)(1n(

1m1)T/t(

; (3)

b) for tp/T01.0

1m

p

0

111

1

p

00p t

T

)1nm(m

1n

m

1m

t

T

1n

n)T/t( (4)

CHANNEL AND FLOOD PLAIN STORAGE

r0T/pt(mq

mqF (5)

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TERRITORIAL LONG-TERM TERRITORIAL LONG-TERM FORECAST FORECAST

OF MAXIMUM RIVER RUNOFF OF MAXIMUM RIVER RUNOFF RESULTING FROM MELTING OF RESULTING FROM MELTING OF

SNOW AND PRECIPITATIONSNOW AND PRECIPITATION

Processing of on-line hydrometeorological dataScheme of long-term forecast for maximum floodkm=f[(Sm+P1+P2)/(So+P1o+P2о)]

І. Qualitative forecast (model of discriminant function)DF=ao+a1x1+a2x2+…+amxm

Map for the forecast module coefficients (km)

Derivation of the value for maximum

flood

INITIAL DATA BASE

Basic data On-line data

Morphometric features of water

catchment

Average perennial hydrological

characteristics

Depth of frost zone

Water-storage of snow cover

Precipitation Soil moisture

Air temperature

ІІІ. Determination of probability of the forecast value in perennial period (Р%)

Map for the probability (Р%)

Estimation of forecast

Forecast lead time

ІІ. Quantitative forecast – derivation of module coefficient km

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весеннего половодья в 2003 г.

Change of forecast module coefficient for maximum discharge of spring flood across the territory in 2003

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Change in probability of forecast module coefficients for values of maximum discharge of spring flood across the territory in 2003

(in per cent)

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