the 2040 imperative: zero emissions by 2040

www.bcsea.org

The climate deniers’ argument

Barry Saxifrage, May 2014

Reality Check

The Rapid Progressof Renewables…?

Reality Check

Barry Saxifrage, May 2014

Exported and imported carbon emissions

Potsdam Institute

2°C“A nice Utopia”

International Energy Agency chief economist

Fatih Birol

2°C“We need a miracle”

International negotiations

chief Christiana Figueres

“The idea of a 2°C target is largely out of

the window.”

Former UK government

advisor Professor Sir Robert Watson

“There is no longer a non-radical option. If developed economies are to play an equitable role in holding warming to 2°C with 66% probability it would require at least a 40% reduction by 2018,

70% reduction by 2024 and 90% by 2030. This would require “in effect a Marshall plan for

energy supply.”

Kevin AndersonDeputy Director,

Tyndall Centre for Climate Research

2°C

2°C is the boundary between ‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’

James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

2012

493GT

2015

304GT

2020

104GT

2025

0

2030

for a 75% chancethat the global temperature will not rise by 2°C

The 2015 Global Carbon Budget

493Gigatonnes of CO2

= a 25% chancethat we’ll crash right through the 2°C barrier

The 2015 Global Carbon Budget

493Gigatonnes of CO2

2012: 699 MT

Canada’s Other Greenhouse Gases

MethaneNitrous OxideThe F Gases

Also all to zero by 2040

Canada’s 2015 CO2 emissions

500Megatonnes of CO2

Canada’s shareof global emissions

1.25%

Canada’s shareof global emissions

1.25%The Non-Equity Model,

divided by current emissions

Canada’s totalCarbon Budget

6,000 Mt of CO2

Canada’s shareof global emissions

0.5%The Equity Model,

divided by population

Canada’s totalCarbon Budget

2,400 Mt of CO2

The Equity Model,

divided by population

Exhausted by 2020

How longwill the budget

last?

Annual reduction in

CO2 emissions

% of Canada’s

2015 emissions

Year by when zero

emissions is achieved

Mt of CO2 released

before before reaching

zero

Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

Year by when 6,000 Mt

carbon budget is exhausted

5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

CANADA’S CHOICES

Annual reduction in

CO2 emissions

% of Canada’s

2015 emissions

Year by when zero

emissions is achieved

Mt of CO2 released

before before reaching

zero

Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

Year by when 6,000 Mt

carbon budget is exhausted

5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

CANADA’S CHOICES

Annual reduction in

CO2 emissions

% of Canada’s

2015 emissions

Year by when zero

emissions is achieved

Mt of CO2 released

before before reaching

zero

Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

Year by when 6,000 Mt

carbon budget is exhausted

5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

CANADA’S CHOICES

Annual reduction in

CO2 emissions

% of Canada’s

2015 emissions

Year by when zero

emissions is achieved

Mt of CO2 released

before before reaching

zero

Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

Year by when 6,000 Mt

carbon budget is exhausted

5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

CANADA’S CHOICES

Annual reduction in

CO2 emissions

% of Canada’s

2015 emissions

Year by when zero

emissions is achieved

Mt of CO2 released

before before reaching

zero

Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

Year by when 6,000 Mt

carbon budget is exhausted

5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

CANADA’S CHOICES

Annual reduction in

CO2 emissions

% of Canada’s

2015 emissions

Year by when zero

emissions is achieved

Mt of CO2 released

before before reaching

zero

Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

Year by when 6,000 Mt

carbon budget is exhausted

5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

CANADA’S CHOICES

Annual reduction in

CO2 emissions

% of Canada’s

2015 emissions

Year by when zero

emissions is achieved

Mt of CO2 released

before before reaching

zero

Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

Year by when 6,000 Mt

carbon budget is exhausted

5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

CANADA’S CHOICES

Annual reduction in

CO2 emissions

% of Canada’s

2015 emissions

Year by when zero

emissions is achieved

Mt of CO2 released

before before reaching

zero

Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

Year by when 6,000 Mt

carbon budget is exhausted

5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

CANADA’S CHOICES

Canada’s Annual CO2 Reduction

25Mt of CO2

25

4932°C6,000

2015 Global Carbon Budget Gt

2015 Canada Carbon Budget Mt Canada Annual Reduction Mt

Increased warming

2015

ZeroBy 2040

The2040

Imperative

Starting today

Starting 2020

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Every year25 Mt CO2 reduction

Fossil fuels imported

Fossil fuels extracted

An Annual Fossil Fuel Permits Auction

Each year, 25 Mt CO2 fewer permits

Carbon rationing, for individuals and businesses

The Race to Zero

= The Race to a Clean Green Economy

ELECTRICITYA Federal Clean Energy Plan

that helps the provinces to close down all coal-fired power plants by 2025 and all gas-fired power plants by 2040, and…

ELECTRICITYA Federal Clean Energy Plan

to ramp up conservation, renewables and power storage to take their place, including geothermal for base-load power.

More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.

1977: $77

1997: $7

2013: $0.7

Price of Solar Module

per Watt

100 GW in 2012

Solar PV 140-fold increase since 2000

200 GWin 2014

TRANSPORTATION1. An organized plan to shift all modes of transport

to 100% renewable energy by 2040

2. Municipal and regional goals for increased walking, cycling, carsharing, transit and rail.

3. Provincial and national goals and incentives for EV uptake.

4. The electrification of all of Canada’s railways.

5. The transformation of long-distance freight.

www.bcsea.org

The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries

The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries

2018

The falling emissions from Europe’s carsGrams of CO2 per kilometre

Falling emissions from Europe’s carsGrams of CO2 per kilometre

2030 Target

0 g/km

100% of new cars and lights trucks electric by 2030

= almost all vehicles by 2040

BUILDINGSZero emissions from all new buildings starting in 2020.

Zero emissions from existing buildings by 2040 through a nationwide program to retrofit every building for greater

energy saving and renewable energy for heat.

INDUSTRYA major drive to help companies improve their

energy efficiency, and replace the use of coal and gas with biomass or hydrogen.

ALBERTA’S OIL SANDSFactor zero by 2040 into all NEB decisions.

Freeze production at current level.Deny licenses for all new pipelines.

Close down the last oil sands operation by 2040.Firm up requirements for boreal forest restoration.

THE ECONOMY (1)Eliminate all subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels.

Divest all public funds from fossil fuels.Put an annually increasing price on carbon.

Invest the resulting funds in climate solutions.Support the green economy with tax incentives.

THE ECONOMY (2)Create new jobs by applying entrepreneurial skill to R&D,

innovation, business start-up, cooperative economic development and other initiatives. Bring in public banking,

basic income, work-sharing, employee share ownership, profit-sharing, tax reform, a financial transactions tax,

and closure of the world’s tax havens.

The transition from a capitalist economy to a green, entrepreneurial cooperative economy

could be one of the defining achievements of the 21st century.

Canada, population 35 million

500

6.6 73,000 26,000

Canada-wide1.75

A very approximate sense of Canada’s gain

blog.floridaenergycenter.org

10,000 lives could be saved and 76,600 job opportunities created if people in major European cities cycled

as much as they do in Copenhagen. World Health Organization, 2014

655,000 people work in cycling in the EU, most in cycle tourism. If cycling’s modal share were doubled, more

than 400,000 new jobs could be created. Cycling has a higher employment intensity per million of

turnover than other transport sectors.

The power

of our visionmust be stronger than

the power of our fears

Think of the Age of Fossil Fuels as the

LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age

30,000 yearsFirewood

300 yearsFossil FuelsScience

EngineeringEnlightenment

Two billion yearsSolar Energy

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

is 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

and with every passing year, our solar technology will improve

and fall in price.

Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.co

m

Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

Together, we can change the worldIf you feel inspired, join the BCSEA

www.bcsea.org/join