the 2012 atlantic basin hurricane season suddenly became active with 4 additional hurricanes second...

THE 2012 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON SUDDENLY

BECAME ACTIVE WITH 4 ADDITIONAL HURRICANES

SECOND HALFSeptember 5 –November 30, 2012

2012’S STORM TRACKS (as of September 8)

2012 ATLANTIC BASIN STORM TRACKS AS OF OCT. 16

NAMED STORMS IN 2012 (Continued)

• ISAAC – Hurricane, August 21

• JOYCE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 25

• KIRK –Hurricane, Aug. 27

• LESLIE –Hurricane, Sept. 3

• MICHAEL – Hurricane, Sept. 4

• NADINE – Tropical Storm, Sept. 12

NAMED STORMS IN 2012

• OSCAR – Tropical Storm, Oct. 4

• PATTY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 11

• RAFAEL – Hurricane, Oct. 12

• SANDY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 22

• TONY

• VALERIE

• WILLIAM

The 2012 season is lagging behind past seasons:

By Sept. 5, 2005, we had three major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and

Katrina),and by Sept. 5, 2011, we had one major hurricane (Katia). This year, we have one-- Michael.

ISAAC: FROM TS ON AUG, 21 TO HURRICANE ON AUG. 26

ISAAC DID NOT RETURN IN THE GULF AS TS NADINE: SEPT 12

LESLIE: FROM A TS ON SEPT 3 TO HURRICANE ON SEPT 5

SEPT 8: CAT 1 HURRICANE LESLIE IS HEADED

SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA AND

CANADA

SEPT 9: LESLIE PASSES 120 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL: FAR OUT IN ATLANTIC—SEPT. 4

Between 5 a.m. on Wednesday and 5 a.m. Thursday, Michael’s pressure suddenly fell 40 mb and the maximum sustained winds increased by 63 mph, truly a remarkable case of

rapid intensification

MICHAEL BECOMES CAT 3 HURRICANE: SEPT. 6

Michael, the 7th hurricane of 2012 and located 980 miles

west-southwest of the Azores and heading northeast at 7 mph, will likely weaken as it encounters colder waters..

MICHAEL’S PATH: SEPT. 6

MICHAEL’S ULTIMATE PATH

On Sept. 7th, the seasonal ACE (Accumulated Cyclone

Energy) (using the 1981-2010 data base), stood at 61,

or 143% of an average season.

BUT---ON SEPTEMBER 12, 2012

A LULL IN ACTIVITY OCCURED AS

EL NINO BEGAN AGAIN

SEPT. 12: EL NINO BEGINS AGAIN

Depending on how quickly El Niño develops, there could be a quick shutdown of tropical systems during the latter part of the Atlantic season and an

extended season on the Pacific side.

TROPICAL STORM NADINE: SEPT. 12

TROPICAL STORM NADINE BECAME A CAT 1

HURRICANE ON SEPT. 14th

Because of its location in the Azores, Nadine, the 8th hurricane of the season,

did not cause any major concerns in spite of its unusually long life.

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON OCT. 4th

Oscar, the 15th storm of 2012, was not expected to last very long or to cause

any major problems.

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DIED ON OCTOBER 5

TROPICAL STORM PATTY FORMED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ON OCT. 11th

Patty is the 16th storm of 2012.

TROPICAL STORM PATTY

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORMED ON OCT. 12TH

Rafael was the 18th storm and 9th hurricane of the season

HURRICANE RAFAEL: A CAT 1 STORM ON OCTOBER 16

TROPICAL STORM SANDY FORMED ON OCT. 22ND

Sandy, whose future is still uncertain, was the 19th storm of the season

TROPICAL STORM SANDY: OCTOBER 22

CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24

OCTOBER 24: CAT I HURRRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL NEAR KINGSTON, THE

CAPITOL, IN BERMUDA

Schools and businesses were closed and people in low-lying areas under a

flood watch were evacuated

OCTOBER 24

Sandy, now the season’s ninth hurricane, is a huge storm with wind

and rain bands reaching out 330 km or more from the storm center, producing

15-50 cm of rain in Bermuda, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Cuba

LIKELY IMPACTS OF SANDY ON “FLORIDA SATURDAY”-- OCTOBER 27

• Miami, Florida, which is already water-logged from 1 ½ meters of rain this summer, is expected to experience more rain, gusty winds, huge waves, and dangerous rip tides as a likely weakened Sandy continues to move northward.

FORECAST FOR SANDY: OCTOBER 24

POSSIBILITIES AFTER “FLORIDA SATURDAY”

• Sandy could veer northeastward and eventually die in the Atlantic.

• Or, Sandy could become a powerful Nor’easter as it moves northward along the Eastern US seaboard

CUMMULATIVE IMPACTS

66 DEATHS

ECONOMIC LOSSES: $2.577 BILLION