the 2010 election: three important questions? john curtice strathclyde university

The 2010 Election: Three Important Questions?

John CurticeStrathclyde University

Three Questions

• Are we (still) disengaged?• Where stands the Union – and the West

Lothian question?• What are the implications for the debate

about the electoral system?

Trends in Turnout

Trends in Civic Duty

The Loss of Trust

Did Expenses Matter?

Con Lab

Incumbent - Expenses +2.7 -6.1

- Not Expenses +4.5 -5.0

Non-incumbent - Expenses +1.4 -7.0

- Not Expenses +3.9 -7.4

Scotland Goes Its Own Way

Three Different Results!

England E, W & NI UK

Con 298 306 307

Lab 191 217 258

LD 43 46 57

Others 1 22 28

Con. Maj. 63 21 -19

Rise and Fall of the Two-Party Vote

Liberal Democrat Seats

The Decline of the Marginal Seat

Tory and Lab Britain Nudge Apart

2005 Result Swing from Lab to Con

Change in LD Vote

Con 1st/Lab 2nd +6.8 +3.3

Lab 1st/Con 2nd; Maj. < 10%

+6.1 +1.2

Lab 1st/Con 2nd; Maj. 10-20%

+5.1 -0.7

Lab 1st/Con 2nd; Maj. > 20%

+6.1 +1.2

The Anti-Tory Bias

Con Lab

Electorate 72,396 68,360

Turnout 68.4 61.3

=> Voters 49,474 41,857

Small Majorities 60 83

Vote in Third Party Seats

28.4 16.6

How The System Now (Doesn’t) Work

Con % Lead Con Lab LD Others

-2.8 239 326 59 26

0.0 255 307 61 27

4.0 282 281 59 28

7.2 307 258 57 28

11.2 328 232 62 28

Three Answers?

• There is still a problem of voter disengagement – the MPs expenses scandal may have negated the ‘closer’ election.

• The West Lothian question is likely to become more pressing – but Scotland will need attention too.

• Advocates of FPP are at risk of defending a system that no longer works.