the 10 most useful market indicators

-- BE YOUR OWN GURU BE YOUR OWN GURU ––Lesson 1Lesson 1

THE 10 MOST USEFUL THE 10 MOST USEFUL MARKET INDICATORSMARKET INDICATORS

Don Gimpel, November 2010

Here is what you are going to learn:Here is what you are going to learn:

What information is important.Where it can be found.What it means.How to use it to make money.

Lets start with some numbers:The value of everything on earth: $1000TThe value of everything in the USA: 110The net worth of all US households: 52The worth of all US Real Estate: 40The US GDP: 15/YAll US publicly traded companies: 15All US infrastructure: 10All US natural resources: 3US consumer debt: 2Estimated US current deficit: 1.5

Some references:

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/http://nationmaster.com/http://alphavictim.blogspot.com

Here are the 10 indicators in decreasing Here are the 10 indicators in decreasing order of importance:order of importance:1. Employment Situation Report Payroll Survey2. ISM Report – Manufacturing3. Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance4. Consumer Prices5. Producer Prices6. Retail Sales7. Consumer Confidence and Sentiment Surveys8. Advance Report on Durable Goods9. Industrial Production10. GDP

CommentsComments

The indicators are from Bernard Baumohl, “The Secrets of Economic Indicators” Wharton School Publishing, 2005, pg. 37.

They are in order of decreasing importance.

We are going to discuss them one at a time.

1. EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT1. EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT

This is a monthly report and comes out on the first Friday of each month for the preceding month at 8:30 A.M. from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

It provides information on job creation.The market is very sensitive to this news.

It can be found at: http://stats.bls.govIt can also be found in Barron’s Weekly.

Employment interpretation:Increasing employment is bullish for

stocks unless Capacity Utilization nears full capacity, 84%. Little or no growth is bearish.

Capacity Utilization is now 74.8% and annualized Employment Growth is 0.03%.

This is a negative but employment is a lagging indicator s no surprises here.

What do you see?What do you see?“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by

151,000 in October” This is good news.

“The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6%” This is bad news.

“Productivity increased 1.9 percent in the nonfarm business center during the third quarter.”What has this got to do with the price of gold?

2. The ISM Report on Manufacturing2. The ISM Report on Manufacturing

This is a monthly report on the economy’s manufacturing sequence and it comes out on the first business day after the reporting month at 10 A.M.

It is produced by the Institute for Supply Management.

Equities react sharply to a rising PMI.It can be found at:

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/mfgrob.cfm?nov/itemnumber=12942

What do you see?What do you see?The report is timely.It tells you about the current status of the

components of the important manufacturing sequence.

A report of 50 is neutral and greater than 50 is positive.

The current numbers are moderately positive.A rising PMI is considered bullish except when

nearing the 84% capacity limit.

HereHere’’s the best piece of advice s the best piece of advice youyou’’re going to get today:re going to get today:

The market usually does not react when the expected actually happens.

The market can act strongly when the unexpected takes place … when the market is surprised.

How can you tell what’s expected?

3. Weekly Claims for Unemployment 3. Weekly Claims for Unemployment InsuranceInsuranceA persistent increase in jobless claims is bearish for stocks because it signals decreasing employment and disposable income which implies lower sales and corporate profits.You can find the data on the internet or in Barron’s weekly.Weekly claims are down 15.68% over last year.

http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch

4. Consumer Prices (CPI)4. Consumer Prices (CPI)

The Consumer Price Index Is the most popular measure of price inflation in retail goods and services. It is issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 AM in the second or third week in he month following the covered month. The market is very sensitive to the CPI.

Here is where you’ll find it:

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/

How does the market react to CPI changes?How does the market react to CPI changes?Investors do not like sharp increases in the CPI

because it leads to higher bond rates and reduces corporate profits. This is very bad for the market.

The threat of inflation might cause the Fed to jump in and raise interest rates.

If inflation is quiescent, it keeps interest rates from rising and buoys up stock prices. Earnings will come from greater sales and increased productivity, i.e., from quality earnings.

The CPI is up an annualized 1.16%. This is good.

5. The Producer Price Index PPI5. The Producer Price Index PPI

The Producer Price Index comes monthly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 AM two weeks after the end of the reporting month. The market is very sensitive to the PPI because the PPI is a measure of future inflation … the market reacts to expectations.

Here is where you will find it:

http://www.cdrpc.org/CPI_PPI.html You will also find it in Barron’s Weekly

How does the market react to PPI changes?How does the market react to PPI changes?

The stock market is sensitive to changes in the PPI because it is one of the earliest monthly inflation gauges available.

Some investors think that a little inflation is a good thing because producers can raise prices but high inflation rates does more harm than good to equities.

The PPI is up 3.90% over past year.

6. What about retail sales?6. What about retail sales?

This is the first report of the month on consumer spending and capable of big surprises. It is released at 8:30 AM two weeks after the end of the reporting month.You can find the data in:

http://www.census.gov/retail/Also in Barron’s Market Week/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Consumption and Distribution

What does it mean?What does it mean?

Healthy retail sales increase corporate revenues and profits and this is positive for the stock market. Paltry sales place downward pressure on stock prices.

Retail store sales are up 7.34% over this past year. This is good for the economy.

7. Consumer Confidence and 7. Consumer Confidence and SentimentSentimentIt tells you how consumers feel about their jobs, the economy and spending. It is available monthly on the Last Tuesday of the month being surveyed at:

www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm

You can also find it in Barron’s Market Week

Dow Jones also has a Sentiment Indicator at: Dow Jones also has a Sentiment Indicator at: http://esi.dowjones.com/http://esi.dowjones.com/

The AAII has a Bullish/Bearish The AAII has a Bullish/Bearish sentiment indicator.sentiment indicator.

You can find it in Barron’s Market Week/Market Laboratory Indicators/Investment Sentiment.

There’s one thing you’ve got to know about the indicator and that is in the extremes it becomes a contrary indicator. For example, the Bullish Sentiment indicator is really Bearish when greater than 80%. It’s now 47.4% bullish, 24.7% bearish.

The Bearish indicator is Bullish when below 20%.

8. Durable Goods Advanced Report8. Durable Goods Advanced Report

This indicator is the first step in the manufacturing cycle and thus production activity.

It is available monthly at 8:0 AM 3–4 weeks after the end of the reporting month.

The market is highly sensitive to this indicator.The indicator can be fund at:

http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

Durable Goods InterpretationDurable Goods InterpretationA jump in Durable Goods Orders is generally

viewed as favorable by the market because it signals higher corporate profits. If the economy is already operating near full capacity (84%), then it may unnerve some investors because of a possible rise in interest rates which tends to reduce profits.

Durable Goods Orders are up by an annualized 18.64%. This is very positive for the economy.

You can check Capacity Utilization Rates in Barron’s Market Weekly.

9. Production Industrial and Capacity 9. Production Industrial and Capacity UtilizationUtilization

Strong production is supportive of the stock market. Jumps in industrial production when nearing full Capacity Utilization (84%) are negative for the market. We are nowhere near full capacity.

http://federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/table11.txt

Yearly Change in GDP:Yearly Change in GDP:

If the economy rises faster then 3.5% per year for several quarters, investors might get nervous and this is bearish for the market.Falling GDP is always negative for the market.Here is where you can find this information:

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2009/pdf/gdp407f.pdf

Don, which indicator do you watch?I like the Institute of Supply Management Indexes which are available at:

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942

The next slide shows what it looks like.