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Thm nh ti chnh
d n u t
2
NI DUNG CHNH
Xc nh dng tin ca d n
Thm nh ti chnh d n u t trong cciu kin thu xp vn khc nhau
Cc phng php thm nh d n
Xp hng v la chn d n trong iu kinvn u t hu hn
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C-2IMPORTANT CASH FLOW CONCEPTS
cCckhI nimquantrng vdngtin
Dng tin tng thm (Incremental cash flow): tt c mi s thayi trong dng tin mt trong tng lai ca cng ty do kt qu trctip ca d n Ch ph khng khi phc c (sunk costs): mt loi chi ph xy ra v khng th ly li c do vy khng c xem xet ntrong quyt nh u t Chi ph c hi (opportunity cost): mt d n khc c gi tr nhtb b qua nu thc hin mt d n no Khi phc vn lu ng : cn tnh gi tr ca vn lu ng tithi im kt thc d n Ch ph ti chnh: chi ph li v tr dn khon vay khng tr khidng tin khi nh gi hiu qu ca ton b d n.Cn nhc xem mt s chi ph c nh c thc s l dng chi ph
pht sinh thm khng.
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C-2
IMPORTANT CASH FLOW CONCEPTS
CCc tnh hung trong tnhton dng tin d n
D n mi
D n m rng
D n thay th
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C-2
IMPORTANT CASH FLOW CONCEPTS
Vn u t- dng tin raTon b chi ph mua sm ti sn v a ti sn vohot ng. Gm c:
Gi bn ca my Chi ph vn chuyn Chi ph lp t Chi ph o to Vn lu ng tng thm vn hnh my mi
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Dng tin vo S tin khu hao trong k
Li nhun sau thu
Thu hi vn lu ng
Ga tr TSC thu hi khi d n kt thc
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Nghin cu tnh hungMt d n s chm dt hot ng sau 5 nm hot ng khi
y c mt th h sn phm mi ra i thay th sn phmm n ang sn xut. Hin trng TSC v d kin u t voTSC trong 5 nm ti nh sau:
1. TSC l my mc thit b nguyn gi 650 triu, c thigian khu khao 10 nm, s dng 2 c nm, d kin sau5 nm na s bn i c 275 triu.
2. Nh ca c nguyn gi 480 triu, c thi gian khu hao10 nm, khu hao 3 nm. D kin vo u nm th 2 tis u t nng cp vi chi ph 30 triu ng. Sau 5 nm khid n gii th, nh ca c gi bn 80 triu.
Hy tnh dng tin ca d n, bit doanh nghip ang pdng phng php khu hao u v phi np thu TNDN cthu sut 28%.
8537.8811811811883Dng tin
7.28Thu
- 26Li, l
80Bn
4848484848Khu hao nh ca
5555Khu hao u t
-30u t
-22,4Thu
80Li, l
275Bn
6565656565Khu hao my mcthit b
54321Nm th
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Cc phng php thm nh d n
Phng php thi gian thu hi vn (PBP)
Phng php gi tr hin ti rng (NPV)
Phng php t sut sinh li ni b (IRR)
Phng php chs sinh li (PI)
Phng php thi gian thu hi vn cchit khu (DPBP)
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B-5
Thi hn hon vnKhong thi gian cn thit cho mt d n to ra
dng tin mt hon li vn u t
Nguyn tcMt khon u t s c chp nhn nu thi gian
hon vn ngn hn mt s nm c quy nh t trc
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Trng hp th nht: cc khan thu nhp hngnm bng nhau, to nn mt chui thu nhp ngnht
K hon vn = Chi ph u t/ Thu nhp hngnm
Trng hp th hai: Cc khan thu ca d nto thnh cc dng tin bt thng
Phng php thi hn hon vn
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Bi tp tnh hungMt doanh nghip c hai d n u t l A v B, c vn u
tbng nhau v u bng 100.000.000. Thu nhp mi nm (Tkhu hao v li nhun sau thu) ca mi d n l:
Hy dng tiu chun thi gian hon vn la chn dn no c hiu qu nu:
a. Thi gian hon vn t ra l di 2 nm.
b. Thi gian hon vn t ra l khng vt qu 3 nm.
40503
40502
Thu nhp/ nmNm
40501
120150Tng
D n BD n A
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Bi tp tnh hungCng ty A hin ang s dng mt chic xe c nguyn gi
100 triu, khu hao c 70% nhng gi tr th trng hin naych 20 triu.
Mt d n a ra l mua xe mi thay th xe c. Chicxe mi ny c gi 120 triu, c thi gian s dng l 5 nm, gi trthanh l sau 5 nm c tnh 8 triu. Theo h s thit k th vo unm th 3 phi nng cp v chi ph l 15 triu (thi gian nng cpc th b qua). Nu s dng chic xe ny th mi nm mang li linhun trc thu nh sau:
Nm 1: 20 triu Nm 2: 30 triuNm 3: 30 triu Nm 4: 40 triu:Nm 5: 20 triuBit Cng ty ang p dng phng php khu hao u v
phi np thu thu nhp doanh nghip c thu sut 28%.Ban gi m c Cng ty cho bit cc d n u tmun thc
thi th phi c thi gian hon vn khng qu 3 nm.Vy d n mua xe mi c thc hin c khng?
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n gin, d p dng v c s dng nhmt cng c sng lc
Phng php ny rt c a chung ccdoanh nghip ngho tin mt. i vi ccdoanh nghip ny, tuy t doanh li thp
nhng li c k han vn ngn, s c li hnnhng d n tuy c doanh li hp dn nhngc k han vn di
Phng php thi hn hon vn
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Nhc im th nht ca phng php hon
vn l khng quan tm n gi tr thi gian
ca tin t
Nhc im th hai ca phng php ny l
khng cp ti s li nhun thu c ngoithi gian hon vn
Nhc im ca PBP
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Khi nim: theo phng php ny, ngi taa cc khan thu v cc khan chi ca dn v gi tr hin ti v so snh chng vinhau
Gi n: thi gian sng ca d n (nm)
Ti: khon thu ca d n nm th i
(i=0-n)r: t l chit khu (t l hin ti ha)
Si: khan chi cho u t nm th i(i=0-n)
Phng php gi tr hin ti rng (NPV)
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== +
+
=n
ii
n
ii r
Si
r
TiNPV
00 )1()1(
Ph
ng php gi tr hin ti rng (NPV)
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B-7
Thi hn hon vn c chit khu
di thi gian cn thit dng tin c chit khu bng chi ph ban u
Nguyn tc ca phng php
Mt khon u t s c chp nhn nu
khong thi gian chit khu nh hn mt s nmxc nh trc
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B-8
Net Present Value (NPV)/Gi tr hin ti rng
S khc nhau gia gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin ca mtd n v chi ph ca n
Gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin ca mt d n c tnhbng cch s dng t l thu hi yu cu nh t l chit khu
Mt khon u t s c chp nhn nu NPV khngm v s b loi nu NPV m
Mt d n c NPV khng m ngha l n to ra cc dngtin mt p ng c t l thu hi c yu cu
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B-9
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)/T l thu hi ni bL t l chit khu cNPV= 0
Nguyn tc ca phng phpMt khon u t c chp nhn nu IRR cao
hn t lsinh liyu cu ca nh u t. Ngc li s bbc b.
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B-11
Profitability Index (P.I.) [also known as Benefit-CostRatio (BCR)]:
Ch s li nhun PI (cn c gi l t s chi ph - li chBCR)
Gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin trong tng laica mt d n u t chia cho vn u t ban u
Nguyn tc ca phng php
Mt d n s c chp nhn nu ch s PI ca nln hn 1. Ngc li s b bc b
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B-12
u im ca phng php ch s li nhun
Lin quan trc tip n NPV, thng a n cng chungkt lun D hiu Hu hiu khi cc ngun vn u t hu hn
Cc nhc im ca phng php
C th dn n quyt nh sai lm khi so snh cc d nu t loi tr nhau
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B-14B
So snh vic s dng cc phng php ny qua thi gian
1959 1964 1970 1975 1977 1979 1981
Thi hn hon vn 34% 24% 12% 15% 9% 10% 5.0%
T l sinh li k ton 34 30 26 10 35 14 10.7
IRR 19 38 57 37 54 60 65.3
NPV --- --- --- 26 10 14 16.5
IRR or NPV 19 38 57 63 64 74 81.8
Sources: J. S. Moore and A. K. Reichert, An Analysis of the Financial Management
Techniques Currently Employed
by Large U. S. Corporations, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting (Winter1983) pp. 623-45;
M.T. Stanley and S. R. Block, A Survey of Multinational Capital Budgeting, The
Financial Review (March 1984)
pp. 36-51
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B-15
tm tt cc phng php nhgi D N u t
Thi hn hon vnThi hn hon vn chit khuGi tr hin ti rng (NVP)T l sinh li ni b (IRR)Ch s li nhun
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Phng php gi tr hin ti rng (NPV)
Xc nh t l t l chit khu
T l thng c dng l chi ph s dng vn
Trong :
r: chi ph s dng vn bnh qun
fi: t trng vn loi i so vi tng vn u t
ri: chi ph s dng vn loi i
n: tng s cc loi vn c s dng
=
=n
i
iirfr1
Thm nh d n trong iu kin
cc ngun vn khc nhau
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Xt mt d n vi cc d kin sau:
Doanh thu 500 triu/nm (trong mt tng lai v hn)
Chi ph hot ng (tin mt)/nm: 80% doanh thu
Vn u tc bn: 380 triu
Thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip: t = 28%
Thm nh d n trong iu kincc ngun vn khc nhau
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Chi ph s dng vn ch s hu (khi khng sdng n vay) r0 = 20%
000.000.20000.000.3802.0
000.000.72
000.000.380%)201(
000.000.72
1
==
+
=
=nk
NPV
Trng hp 1:u t bng vn t c
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Thay i v dng tin :
Tit kim v thu
P(t) =D x rD x t
Trong : P(t): khon li v thu
D: vn vayrD: li sut vay
t: thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Trng hp 2: Mt phn vn u t l tin vay
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Trng hp 2: Vn u tc bn c ti trt n vay vi h s n 25%, li xut vay r=10%
))(1( 00 DE rrtE
Drr
+=
32
Gii hn vnGi thit vn u t ti a = 550.000$k= 12%
D n Vn u tPV ca dng
tin voNPV IRR PI
A 550.000$ 655.000 105.000 15% 1,19B 350.000 435.000 85.000 17,7% 1,24C 140.000 178.000 38.000 20,2% 1,27D 60.000 69.000 9.000 14,9% 1,15E 470.000 473.000 3.000 12,2% 1,01
F 250.000 247.000 -3.000 11,7% 0,99
Kt hp li:B,C,D VT = 550.000$ NPV = 132.000$A VT = 550.000$ NPV = 105.000$D,E VT = 530.000$ NPV = 12.000$
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Bc 1: xc nh NPV ca d n
Bc 2: tnh EAA ca tng d n
Bc 3: d n no c kt qu bc 2 ln nht l d n c lachn
La chn d n u t thuc loi xung khc
c tui th khc nhau (khng ng nht vthi gian)
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Cng ty XNK lng thc cn mua mt my nh bng go.c tin ny c hai hng n cho hng:
Hng A cho mt loi my c gi tr 100 triu, c thi gian sdng l 2 nm (gi tr thanh l khng ng k) v mi nm mangli mt khon thu nhp rng 70 triu.
Hng B cho mt loi my c gi tr hin nay l 150 triu, cthi gian s dng l 4 nm v gi tr thanh l khng cn tnh ti.Nu cng ty s dng my ny th mi m mang li cho cng tymt khon thu nhp rng l 55 triu.
Bit chi ph s dng vn ca cng ty l 10%.Hy dng tiu chun NPV la chn nn mua my ca hng
no?
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Mu thun gia NPV v IRR
IRR c din t bng mt t l %
NPV c o bng s tin c th
V vy khi c mu thun gia NPV v IRR th
tiu chun NPV s thch hp hn, nu mc tiu
ca doanh nghip l ti a ha li nhun
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Bi tp tnh hungCng ty xy dng cng trnh ngm thuc Tng cng ty xydng S ang ng trc s la chn mua chic my pht b tng
A hay B. Nu mua my A c gi 10.000 USD, sau 1 nm s dng
mang li li nhun sau thu l 2.000 USD. Cn nu mua my B
vi gi 12.000 USD sau 1 nm s dng c li nhun sau thu l
2.300 USD. C hai my u c thi gian s dng l 1 nm v gi
tr thanh l c th b qua.
Hy dng tiu chun gi tr hin ti rng (NPV) v t sut
doanh li ni b (IRR) la chn.
Nu bit chi ph s dng vn bnh qun ca Tng cng ty l
10%.
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Thm nh d n trong iu kinc ri ro
Phng php t sut chit khu c iu
chnh theo mc ri ro
Theo phng php ch quan
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Theo phng php khch quan
Trong :
r: t l chit khu (t l hin ti ha, hoc cth l chi ph s dng vn)
r(d): t l chit khu y (t l chit khuc iu chnh theo mc mo him
q: xc sut xut hin ri ro
q
rdr
=
1)(
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