test of two methods of change point analysis in agroclimatology
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PIECEWISE AND STRUCCHANGE: TEST OF TWO METHODSPIECEWISE AND STRUCCHANGE: TEST OF TWO METHODSOF CHANGE POINT ANALYSIS IN AGROCLIMATOLOGYOF CHANGE POINT ANALYSIS IN AGROCLIMATOLOGY
A.Chiaudani1, A. Berti2, M.Borin2, L.Mariani3
1. Veneto Region Environmental Protection Agency (ARPAV), Meteorological Centre of Teolo,
achiaudani@arpa.veneto.it
2. Padua University, Department of Environmental Agronomy and Vegetable production
antonio.berti@unipd.it; maurizio.borin@unipd.it
3. Milan University, Department of Vegetable production
meteomar@libero.it
Temperature9 stations: period 1956-2004
Precipitation49 stations: period 1956-2004
Historical data set 1956-2004
CMT Centro Meteorologico di Teolo Alessandro Chiaudani
PIECEWISE BREAKPOINT
Piecewise regression: aims to identify the initial changing moment of the system, separating sub-periods, defined by their trends
CMT Centro Meteorologico di Teolo Alessandro Chiaudani
FLAT STEPS BREAKPOINT
Flat-step: aims to identify the transition from a climatic homogeneous phase to a new one (climatic normal), separating stationary sub-periods,
defined by their average values
CMT Centro Meteorologico di Teolo Alessandro Chiaudani
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PEACEWISE AND FLATSTEPS
The piecewise regression breakpoint, identifying the beginning of the change, anticipates the flat-step
breakpoint that identifies the moment where the passage to a new stationary phase is demonstrable
Other Proxy data
Annual anomaly of average Temp. in Italy (1961-2004) and
linear piecewise. Source: Toreti e Desiato (2007).
1981
CONCLUSIONS
The flat-steps approach can be particularly interesting for agro-climatic purposes, because it permits to identify the reference period for climatic normal which are the basis for a lot of evaluations about climatic change and adaptation of agricultural systems.
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