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Tech Mining for Technology WatchConcept, Methods and Applications

Paul FreyPresident

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paulf@searchtech.com

Con la colaboración de

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AgendaCompetitive WorldInformation Resources + Software ToolsCase Examples

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Innovation Challenges• Radical Innovation• Discontinuous change – implies

unfamiliar realmsIncreasingly science-based technologies (challenge to predict breakthroughs)

• Open InnovationLeveraging the knowledge economySeek external R&D knowledge & collaboration

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Open Innovation• “Most innovations

fail.”• “And companies that

don’t innovate die.”

Chesbrough, H. W. (2003). Open Innovation – The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA.

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Goal: Improve R&D Efficiency

• Internal Research and Development• Mergers, Acquisitions, Divestitures• License Intellectual Property (in/out)• Leverage “Knowledge Economy”

€ € € €€ € €€ €€

Get profitable innovations into the market at lowest cost

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• Procter & Gamble’s New Model for Innovation

• “… produces more than 35% of company’s innovation and billions of dollars in revenue”

• “R&D productivity has increased by nearly 60 percent”

• “R&D investment as a percentage of sales is down from 4.8 percent in 2000 to 3.4 percent today”

"Connect and Develop: Inside Procter & Gamble's New Model for Innovation," Harvard Business Review, Vol. 84, No. 3, March 2006, http://hbswk.hbs.edu/archive/5258.html

“External collaboration plays a key role in nearly 50 percent of P&G's products. We've collaborated with outside partners for generations but the importance of these alliances has never been greater.

“Our vision is simple. We want P&G to be known as the company that collaborates — inside and out —better than any other company in the world.”

A.G. LafleyChairman of the Board andChief Executive Officer

www.pgconnectdevelop.com, April 2008

Example: Connect and Develop

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Networks/BrokersA quick search yields:• http://www.ninesigma.com/• http://www.yet2.com/• http://www.innocentive.com/• http://www.tekscout.com/• … and there are many others

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A Network/Broker Example

Yet2.com – Apr 16, 2008

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The Process of using the brokers• Bi-directional marketplace• “Sellers” post ideas and

capabilities• “Buyers” post needs and

requirements• Yields people that want to

be found

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The Challenge• Qualify the people (and

ideas) that “want to be found”• Find the people (and ideas)

that have not yet entered the “knowledge economy”marketplace

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The Need: A way to formulate wise Science Technology & Innovation (ST&I) Policy and Technology Management

• Information is keyInternal R&D information+External R&D intelligence

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The Problem• Information

overload

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The Solution

• Access the best ST&I information resources

• Apply powerful Tech Mining (software) tools(e.g., VantagePoint)

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Import

Search Results

Download

Analyze

Query

- On-Line Hosts- Internal Databases

1. Search for information in your structured text databases2. Download your search results3. Import the search results into VantagePoint4. Use VantagePoint to discover patterns within the

search results

How does VantagePoint work?

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Technical Information• Science, Technology &

Innovation Databases (e.g., Web of Science; Scopus, Inspec, Thomson Innovation)

• Internet Sources(e.g., Googling)

• Technical Expertise

Contextual Information• Business, competition,

customer, policy, popular content Databases

• Internet Sources (e.g., blogs, website profiling)

• Business Expertise

Six information types

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How do you deal with all this information?

Tech MiningAlan L. Porter and Scott W. CunninghamJohn Wiley & Sons Inc., 2005

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The Tech Mining Process

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MOT Issues, Questions, and Indicators

13 MOT Issues

• R&D Portfolio Mgt

• R&D Project Initiation

• Engr Project Initiation

• New Product Development

• Strategic Planning

• Track/forecast emerging or breakthrough technologies

• etc.

39 MOT Questions

What?• What’s hot?• Fit into tech landscape?• New frontiers at fringe?• Drivers?• Competing technologies?• Likely development paths?Who?• Who are available experts?• Which universities or labs

lead?

~200 Innovation Indicators

• Mapping of topic clusters within the technology

• 3-D trend charts for topic clusters

• Ratio of conference to journal papers (benchmarked)

• Scorecard rate-of-change metrics for topic clusters

• Time slices to show evolution of topical emphases

• Topic growth modeling (S-curve) fit & extrapolation

• Profile table of main players• Pie chart: Company vs.

Academic vs. Government publishing

• Spreading (or constricting) # of players by topic

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Application Examples• R&D Portfolio Management• Research Evaluation• Research Profiling• Tracking R&D over time• Research Network Analyses• Monitoring Research Knowledge Flows• Geo-mapping• ST&I Indicators

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Research Program Evaluation: EPA STAR• Endocrine Disruptors (1 of 2 programs assessed, for

NAS Committee evaluation)• EPA provided reports on papers resulting from the

projects (funding started in 1996)• We searched databases (especially Web of

Science) for research in the target domains, and for citations generally and to the EPA project papers

• Compared co-authoring patterns before & after the EPA funding [effect of funding on teaming]

• Found major disjunction – only ~5% of the project-based papers appeared in the target research domains!

Case Examples

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Organizational Self-Profiling• Georgia Tech

For 6 years; >20,000 research abstracts from Web of Science, INSPEC, Compendex, MEDLINEAlso NSF awards; research projects database

• Research Locator – Quickly, on demand• Research Profiler – A unit: change over time• Marriage Broker – Identify capabilities to bolster a proposal• Story Teller – Help make the case for your capabilities and

teaming (networking)

Case Examples

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Nanopatenting: Life Cycle Analyses[Simone Alencar, Adelaide Antunes, et al.]

• Nanopatenting search (Derwent)• Combine two sources of information

Patent sub-classesText mining on “uses”

• Categorize technology targets into 3 life stagesNano raw materialsNano intermediatesNano products

• Use to examine organizational and national patenting emphases

• Identify strategic differences among US, Japan & Germany

Case Examples

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Discerning Patent Aims along the Value Chain[by Alencar, Antunes & Porter]

Main IPC [# patents] Main uses description in the nanopatents

Position along the Nano Value Chain

H01L-Semiconductor Devices; Electric Solid State Devices Not Otherwise Provided [2870]

• Electron device • Semiconductor device • Solar cell

• Nanointermediate • Nanointermediate • Nano-products

C01B-Non-Metallic Elements; Compounds Thereof [2716]

• carbon nanotube • fuel cell • catalyst

• Nano-raw material • Nano-products • Nanointermediate

A61K-Preparations For Medical, Dental, Or Toilet Purposes [1863]

• Cancer (treatment, medication) • Cosmetics • drugs

• Nano-products • Nano-products • Nano-products

B82B-Nano-Structures; Manufacture Or Treatment Thereof Chemistry [1615]

• Carbon nanotube • Electron device • catalyst

• Nano-raw material • Nanointermediate • Nanointermediate

Case Examples

National Benchmarking: Relative Research Emphases (WOS)

4 Key Topics Breakout:- Over time (3-D plot)- Key Researchers (table)

Biotechnology Research InstituteQuick Profile: 750 Articles(MEDLINE)

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Science Citation Index Nano Publications in Environment & Energy: By Region

Case Examples

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One PagersCase Examples

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Science Overlay• Base science map• Overlay various topical research sets

Case Examples

Cognitive Sci

Agri Sci

Biomed Sci

Chemistry

Physics

Engr Sci

Env Sci & Tech

Mtls Sci

Reproductive Sci

Math, Interdisciplinary

Health Sci

Soc/Psych & Rltd

Policy Sci

Literature & Arts

Clinical Med

Computer Sci

Ind Engr/Mgt Sci

Geosciences

Ecol Sci

Civil Engr

Ethical & Social Issues

Base Science Map (Science, Social Sciences, & Arts & Humanities) Based on co-citation of 244 Subject Categories by 30,261 sample of USA-authored articles in Web of Scienceclustered into 21 Macro-disciplinesRafols/Porter, 2008

Pajek

Medical Tech

Health Sci

Ethical & SocialIssues

Literature & Arts

Social Sciences

Behav Sci

Clinical Med

Infectious Diseases Agri Sci

Eco Sci

Math across Disciplines

Comp Sci

Engr Sci

Chemistry

Geo SciEnv Sci

Mtls Sci

Physics

Biomed Sci

Ind Engr/Mgt Sci

Soc/Psych

Synthetic Biology Overlay MapScience Overlay Mapping:Which research communitiesto engage in a “Synthetic Biology”workshop?

Cognitive Sci

Agri Sci

Biomed Sci

Chemistry

Physics

Engr Sci

Env Sci & Tech

Mtls Sci

Reproductive Sci

Math, Interdisciplinary

Health Sci

Soc/Psych & Rltd

Policy Sci

Literature & Arts

Clinical Med

Computer Sci

Ind Engr/Mgt Sci

Geosciences

Ecol Sci

Civil Engr

Ethical & Social Issues

Nano in Social Sciences Articles’ Cited SCs (from SSCI + Scopus, pre-2005)Overlay on the 244 Subject Category Web of Science map(normalized to 2005-07 total cites)

Relative Nano in Social Sciences Citation Emphases: pre-2005

Cognitive Sci

Agri Sci

Biomed Sci

Chemistry

Physics

Engr Sci

Env Sci & Tech

Mtls Sci

Reproductive Sci

Math, Interdisciplinary

Health Sci

Soc/Psych & Rltd

Policy Sci

Literature & Arts

Clinical Med

Computer Sci

Ind Engr/Mgt Sci

Geosciences

Ecol Sci

Civil Engr

Ethical & Social Issues

Nano in Social Sciences Articles’ Cited SCs(from SSCI + Scopus for 2005-07) (Rafols/Porter, Aug 31, 2008).NOTE: Enhanced research knowledge bases in the social sciences, compared to the earlier period.

Relative Nano in Social Sciences Citation Emphases: 2005-07

Science Mapping

Governance

Visions

Co-citation Mapof the most citedauthors by307 nanosocial sciencepapers

Evolutionary Economics

Perception

Ethics

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Polymer Biomaterials : fibrous structural proteins : skin1991-1997 (68 patents)

Tracking Change over TimeCase Examples

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Polymer Biomaterials : fibrous structural proteins : skin1991-2005 (470 patents)

Case Examples

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Geo-coded Mapping

Georgia Tech TPAC / CNS-ASU Analysis of SCI Publications; refined nano definition; results subject to revision

Case Examples

Tech Mining for ST&I Indicators Construction: Sao Tech Mining for ST&I Indicators Construction: Sao Paulo & Brazil [Leandro Paulo & Brazil [Leandro FariaFaria et al., UFSC]et al., UFSC]

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Mine field-structured text like data –for patterns!Using VantagePoint + other softwarePatterns speak to ST&I policy intelligence: benchmarking, trends, assessing technology maturation, etc.Answer “who, what, where & when” questions for policy decision processes[Generate “One-Pagers”]Aim to standardize questions & answersThen semi-automate the analytical processes: QTIP – Quick Technology Intelligence Process

Summing Up & Looking Ahead

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Resources• VantagePoint Information

http://www.theVantagePoint.com//

• Tech Mining by Alan Porter and Scott Cunningham, Wiley, 2005.

• Chesbrough, H. W. (2003), Open Innovation –The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology, Harvard Business School Press.

• "Connect and Develop: Inside Procter & Gamble's New Model for Innovation," Harvard Business Review, Vol. 84, No. 3, March 2006,