strategy games for strategic advantage · strategy games for strategic advantage elizabeth roll...

May 16, 2019 ASP Conference 2019 1

Strategy Games for Strategic Advantage

Elizabeth Roll & Amber Harwell

Sandia National Laboratoriesearoll@sandia.gov l aharwel@sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of

Honeywell International Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2017-10885 M

Executive Strategy Professionals

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Elizabeth RollAmber Harwell

Strategy

Facilitation

Leadership Development Programs

Executive Staffing

Sandia National Laboratories

3https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOZ6mBwPzD0

• Learn how a game can be used to stimulate strategic thinking through a hands-on activity

• Learn how to adapt our game to work for your industry or ecosystem

• Have fun!

Session Objectives

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Games can be an effective tool to learn strategic thinking skills, do team building, and think about your ecosystem; these tools are options for all of us.

Purpose of the Game

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When creating a game for national security, our questions were:

Key Questions

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#3

What should we be thinking about

now to prepare for these

potential future environments?

#2

What are the US national security

challenges associated with these potential

future environments?

#1

What might the global security

environment look like in 2039?

• Purpose: Stimulate creative thinking about various factors in national security

• Each table has been assigned a role in this game• Six hypothetical countries, not based

on present day countries

• Country descriptions are provided in your handout

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Complex Future World Activity

• Introduce yourself to those at your table

• Designate a scribe and a reporter for your country

• Feel free to write on your flip charts, map, and materials

• Raise your hand if you have questions

Activity Prep

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• Two rounds to the game:1. Establish your country’s national security strategy

2. Interaction and external stimulus round

• Round 1 guidance: • The year is 2019 and you are a group of leaders and planners looking ahead to

2039.

• Your task is to establish your country’s national security strategy.

• You may not collaborate with other teams.

Round 1: Establish Strategy

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Establish your country’s national security strategy.

Thought questions:

• What do you imagine about the future of the world in 2039?

• What challenges do you need to prepare for?

• What actions will you pursue?

Round 1: 2019 Country Plan

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Output: Bullet-list description of the components of your national security strategy.

• Two rounds to the game:1. Establish your country’s national security strategy

2. Interaction and external stimulus round

• Round 1 guidance: • The year is 2019 and you are a group of leaders and planners looking ahead to

2039.

• Your task is to establish your country’s national security strategy.

• You may not collaborate with other teams.

Round 1: Establish Strategy

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Report Out

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What is one key element of your national security strategy?

Round 2: 2029 External Events

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1 2 3

The violent non-state actor collapses Country 1’s government. A well-funded

Non-Governmental Organization (NGO), established and funded by one

of the world’s wealthiest families, located in SuperPower 2, enters

Country 1 and provides humanitarian services. The NGO hires a private

security contractor from Country 4 to protect its activities. Oil production is

disrupted by chaos.

A contagion occurs and propagates rapidly in Countries 3, 4, and 6 resulting

a 8% mortality rate (akin to the 1918 influenza). Source unknown, possibly a

deliberate release by hostile actors.

A bio-tech company, headquartered in SuperPower 2, in effect “buys” Country 2 with a huge investment in plant and equipment. It becomes the dominant

economic force in Country 2.

Local-group discussion, thought questions:

• What changes would you make to your national strategy?

• What actions, if any, do you take in response to these events?

Round 2: External Events

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Output: Bullet-list of changes to your national security strategy.

Round 2: 2029 External Events

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1 2 3

The violent non-state actor collapses Country 1’s government. A well-funded

Non-Governmental Organization (NGO), established and funded by one

of the world’s wealthiest families, located in SuperPower 2, enters

Country 1 and provides humanitarian services. The NGO hires a private

security contractor from Country 4 to protect its activities. Oil production is

disrupted by chaos.

A contagion occurs and propagates rapidly in Countries 3, 4, and 6 resulting

a 8% mortality rate (akin to the 1918 influenza). Source unknown, possibly a

deliberate release by hostile actors.

A bio-tech company, headquartered in SuperPower 2, in effect “buys” Country 2 with a huge investment in plant and equipment. It becomes the dominant

economic force in Country 2.

Report Out

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What changes, if any, did you make to your national security

strategy?

Why did you make them?

We asked our leaders:

• What insights and possibilities about possible global security dynamics were generated?

• Based on this simulation, what are possible key features of the future global security environment?

Complex Future World Activity

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#1

What might the global security environment look like in

2039?

Lessons Learned

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TREAT AS AN ACTIVITY

TIE INTO STRATEGIC PLANNING

BE OPEN TO THE

OUTCOME

USE EARLY IN THE PROCESS

HOLD A DRY RUN

YOU NEED MORE DATA THAN YOU

THINK

Adapting the Game for Your Environment

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Identify your macro-level business

Develop plan for transitioning from the game to strategic planning

Determine your desired outcome

Pinpoint the questions you are trying to answer for your environment

Draw from your experts and resources

• What did you learn about games for strategy?

Wrap-Up

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THANK YOU!

Creative Resources