strategic behavior in business and economics uab – study abroad fall 2010 xavier vilà

Strategic Behavior in Business and Economics

UAB – Study AbroadFALL 2010Xavier Vilà

The CourseThis course in designed as a brief introduction to individual decision making.

Its main objective is to provide the students with Decision Theory and Game Theory techniques that can be useful to face and understand, using logical reasoning, strategic situations that appear not only in business environments, but also in everyday life.

“A theory provides a way to organize our thinking. Theory is the science of business, not the art.”

Mike ShorVanderbilt University

Administrativia• 23 regular lectures + 1 review session + 1 in-class presentations + 1 in-class exam = 26 sessions

• Up to four Problem Sets will be distributed during the course, collected one week later, graded, and returned back

• A Strategic Memo, that will consist of the analysis of one real-world-case using the tools learned in class, will be written in teams (of up to 5 members) and submitted before December 13th. In-class presentations will take place on December 13th. (Length: 2 pages including figures)

Administrativia

• A Final Exam consisting of questions and exercises on the topics covered in class and in the problem sets is scheduled for December 15th

• Your final grade will be based on the scores of the three activities above according to the following table

• WEBhttp://fawlty.uab.cat/Strategic

Problem Sets 45%

Strategic Memo 25%

Final Exam 30%

Administrativia

• Dixit.A.K and B. J. Nalebuff (2010) The Art of Strategy: A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life. W.W. Norton & Company. New York

• Dixit.A.K and B. J. Nalebuff (1991) Thinking Strategically: The Competitive Edge in Business, Politics and Everyday Life. W.W. Norton & Company. New York

• Gibbons R. (1992) A primer in game theory. Pearson Higher Education

• Gardner, R. (1995) Games for Business and Economics. New York: Wiley

What are we going to do ?

The whole picture

Game andDecision Th.

Social ChoiceTheory

Game Theory

DecisionTheory

Decision Th.Under Cert.

Decision Th.Under Uncert.

Decision Problem

Ind

ivid

ual

Dec

isio

n

Col

lect

ive

Dec

isio

n

Unipersonal

WithoutRisk

WithRisk

Multipersonal

Decision Problem

The problem is to make the best choice possible, according to our interests, from a given set of feasible alternatives

Examples• How many pears and how many apples to buy ?

• What President should we have ?

• Should Georgia be allowed to join NATO ?

• How much to bid in an auction ?

• What chess move ?

• How many lotto tickets to buy ?

Individual Decision Problem

The decision has to be made by an individual agent (a person, a firm, a government)

Examples of Individual Decision

How many pears and how many apples to buy ?

What President should we have ?

Should Georgia be allowed to join NATO ?

How much to bid in an auction ?

What chess move ?

How many lotto tickets to buy ?

Collective DecisionProblem

The decision has to be made by a group of agents (a

group of countries, an electoral pool, a jury, etc.)

Examples of Collective Decisions

How many pears and how many apples to buy ?

• What President should we have ?

• Should Georgia be allowed to join NATO ?

How much to bid in an auction ?

What chess move ?

How many lotto tickets to buy ?

Game and DecisionTheories

They study how rational agents take individual decisions in different scenarios

Unipersonal Scenario

The final outcome of the decision depends only on the own decision (and maybe on chances), and not on the

decisions of others

– How many pears and how many apples to buy ?

How much to bid in an auction ?

What chess move ?– How many lotto tickets to buy ?

Multipersonal Scenario

The final outcome of the decision depends on the own decision, and also on the decisions of others.

Such situations are called “Games”

How many pears and how many apples to buy ?– How much to bid in an auction ?– What chess move ?

How many lotto tickets to buy ?

Decision Theory

Studies how rational agents take individual decisions in a unipersonal scenario. The focus is on the

expected outcome.

Game Theory

Studies how rational agents take individual decisions in a multipersonal scenario (a Game). The focus is on

the expected outcome.

Some “game” situations

Team Projects Dating Tennis Poker Traffic

Market Entry Patent Races OPEC-like behavior Procurement Corporate Takeovers Competition

What are we actually going to do?

Real World

situation

Model Outcome of the model

Real Outcome

Compare

Create Models as a simplification of reality !

Models

A model is a simplified (mathematical) representation of a real situation. Models are constructed in such a way that the analysis of such situation becomes easier

A good model contains only those key elements that are necessary for the analysis and is tailored to the situation at study

Example: A Map is a simplified representation of something real (a city), and so is a Travel Guide

Find your way Know the museums

Map ✔ ✖

Travel Guide ✖ ✔

Models

Models are based on simplifying assumptions, that are necesary to acomplish their goals

In this course ...

Rationality: Selfish players, profit maximizers, perfect calculatorsCommon Knowledge: I am rational, you know that I am rational, I know

that you know that I am rational, you know that I know that you know that I am rational, I

know that you know that I know that you know that I am rational, ...Perfect Information: All relevant information is available

ATTENTION !!

There is some

MATH !!

Models

Mathematics is a convenient language to create models. Mathematics makes it easier to explore and unfold all the logical consequences and implications.

The Prisoners' Dilemma

After a crime has been committed, of which the police has no clues, two suspects are arrested and kept in solitary confinement. In order to gather some evidence to take them to court, the police explains the situation to the two of them in the following terms ...

What we are going to propose to you, we will propose to the other suspect in exactly the same terms.We know that one of you two is guilty, but we do not have any evidence. Your deposition might be the only evidence we can take to court.If in your deposition you accuse the other suspect, we can use it in court as an evidence against him, and you will be freed right away. Nevertheless, if in his deposition the other suspect accuses you, then the judge will find the evidence inconclusive and both of you will be condemned to 1 year each.If you do not agree to collaborate with us and refuse to make a deposition, then the other suspect might do and hence all the evidence will point towards you. In such case the judge will condemn you to 5 years.If both of you refuse to make a deposition, then there is no way we can take you to court without any evidence. Nevertheless, just because you did not agree to collaborate with us, we will keep you two in jail 2 weeks.

Key information:

The “rules of the game” are clear: What the police just said

The “players” are the other suspect and myself.

My “choices” are clear: To accuse or To remain silent

Depending on my decision, and on the decision of the other suspect, I may end up free or spend 2 weeks, or 1 year, or 5 years in jail.

Key Information:

Accuse

Silent

Accuse Silent

Prisoner 1

Prisoner 2

1 , 1 0 , 5

5 , 0 2 w. , 2 w.

Payoff to Player 1

Payoff toPlayer 2

Brief Game Theory Timeline Late XIXth century: Mathematicians became interested in Economics

1928-1944 John Von Neumann, Oskar Morgenstern

1950-1955 John Nash

1955-1960 Links Games-Economics are stablished

1960- .... Developement ....

1994 Nobel prize: Nash-Selten-Harsanyi

2000 First World Congress of Game Theory

2005 Nobel Prize: Robert Aumann (et al.)

2007 Nobel Prize: Roger Myerson (et al.)

Lessons and Disclaimers

Game theory does not teach you “how to win”Framework for thinking strategically in a logical, systematic wayHelps to predict the logical outcome of a “game situation”Helps to understand and use the “rules of the game”Helps to organize your thinkingThe course is an introduction to the field