st. louis homicides
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St. Louis HomicidesDonna Brandy, Brett Gilmer, Howard Leboeuf, Aaron Shedron
St. Louis HomicideSt. Louis City DistrictsThe Problem:Provide detailed information through the use of statistical and visual data to determine the probability of homicides occurring in the near future for the St. Louis City areas. To use statistical techniques and data to determine the probability of when, where, why, and how many homicides the City of St. Louis will have in a specific neighborhood in 2014. With this data be able to advise on how to deploy sufficiently the limited amount of funds that is available to the City of St. Louis Police Department.
St. Louis HomicideThe Data:
2013 St. Louis-Area Murder MapMay 8, 2013
Yellow: St. Louis City murders
Red: St. Louis, St. Charles and Jefferson County murders.
Light Blue: Metro East Murders
The Predictions 2010
2011
2012
2013
A Look Back: 2013 - 2010 homicides in St. Louis City's various neighborhoods
St. Louis HomicidesThe Data:
2011-2013 Neighborhoods Homicides Reported
Between January through June
2013 2012 2011 2010
January 19 13 2 16
February 11 6 14 11
March 7 12 13 7
April 5 10 16 14
May 8 14 16 10
June 11 15 18 18
January February March April May June0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
St. Louis Homicides
2013201220112010
Hom
icid
es
St. Louis Homicides
2013 2012 2011 2010
July 10 18 10 10
August 11 17 11 9
September 11 8 14 11
October 18 9 7 18
November 8 6 9 8
December 19 9 7 16
July August September October November December0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
St. Louis Homicides
2013201220112010
Hom
icid
es
The Data: 2011-2013 Neighborhoods Homicides ReportedBetween July through December
St. Louis HomicideThe Data: 2010-2013 District Homicides
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010 St. Louis City Districts Homicides
Districts
Hom
icid
es
District 1: Cardonlet, Patch, Holly Hills, Carondelet ParkBoulevard Heights, Bevo Mill, Princeton Heights, Dutchtown, Mount Pleasant, Marine Villa
District 2: South Hampton, St. Louis Hills, Lindenwood Park,Ellendale, Clifton Heights, The Hill, Southwest Garden, North Hampton, Kings Oak, Cheltenham, Clayton-Tamm, Franz Park, Hi-Point, Wydown-Skinker, Forest Park
District 3: Tower Grove South, Gravois Park, Kosciusko, Soulard, Benton Park, McKinley Heights, Fox Park, Tower Grove East, Compton Heights, Shaw, Benton Park West, TowerGrove Park
District 4: Lafayette Square, Peabody-Darst-Webbe, Lasalle, Downtown, Downtown West, St. Louis Place, Carr Square, Columbus Square, Old North St. Louis, Near N. Riverfront
District 5: Jeff Vanderlou, Hyde Park, College Hill, Fairground Neighborhood, O’Fallon, Fairgrounds Park
District 6: Penrose, Mark Twain I-70 Ind., Mark Twain, Walnut Park East, North Point, Baden, Riverview, Walnut Park West, North Riverfront, Penrose Park, O’Fallon Park, Calvary-Bellefontaine Cemetaries
District 7: Central West End, Skinker-DeBaliviere, DeBaliviere Place, West End, Visitation Park, Wells Goodfellow, Academy, Kingsway West, Hamilton Heights
District 8: Fountain Park, Lewis Place, Kingsway East, The Great Ville, The Ville, Vandeventer
District 9: McRee Town, Tiffany, The Gate District, Midtown, Forest Park SE, Covenant Blu-Grand Center
St. Louis HomicideThe Data: 2010-2013 District Homicides
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2011 St. Louis City Districts Homicides
Districts
Hom
icid
es
District 1: Cardonlet, Patch, Holly Hills, Carondelet ParkBoulevard Heights, Bevo Mill, Princeton Heights, Dutchtown, Mount Pleasant, Marine Villa
District 2: South Hampton, St. Louis Hills, Lindenwood Park,Ellendale, Clifton Heights, The Hill, Southwest Garden, North Hampton, Kings Oak, Cheltenham, Clayton-Tamm, Franz Park, Hi-Point, Wydown-Skinker, Forest Park
District 3: Tower Grove South, Gravois Park, Kosciusko, Soulard, Benton Park, McKinley Heights, Fox Park, Tower Grove East, Compton Heights, Shaw, Benton Park West, TowerGrove Park
District 4: Lafayette Square, Peabody-Darst-Webbe, Lasalle, Downtown, Downtown West, St. Louis Place, Carr Square, Columbus Square, Old North St. Louis, Near N. Riverfront
District 5: Jeff Vanderlou, Hyde Park, College Hill, Fairground Neighborhood, O’Fallon, Fairgrounds Park
District 6: Penrose, Mark Twain I-70 Ind., Mark Twain, Walnut Park East, North Point, Baden, Riverview, Walnut Park West, North Riverfront, Penrose Park, O’Fallon Park, Calvary-Bellefontaine Cemetaries
District 7: Central West End, Skinker-DeBaliviere, DeBaliviere Place, West End, Visitation Park, Wells Goodfellow, Academy, Kingsway West, Hamilton Heights
District 8: Fountain Park, Lewis Place, Kingsway East, The Great Ville, The Ville, Vandeventer
District 9: McRee Town, Tiffany, The Gate District, Midtown, Forest Park SE, Covenant Blu-Grand Center
St. Louis HomicideThe Data: 2010-2013 District Homicides
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2012 St. Louis City Districts Homicides
Districts
Hom
icid
es
District 1: Cardonlet, Patch, Holly Hills, Carondelet ParkBoulevard Heights, Bevo Mill, Princeton Heights, Dutchtown, Mount Pleasant, Marine Villa
District 2: South Hampton, St. Louis Hills, Lindenwood Park,Ellendale, Clifton Heights, The Hill, Southwest Garden, North Hampton, Kings Oak, Cheltenham, Clayton-Tamm, Franz Park, Hi-Point, Wydown-Skinker, Forest Park
District 3: Tower Grove South, Gravois Park, Kosciusko, Soulard, Benton Park, McKinley Heights, Fox Park, Tower Grove East, Compton Heights, Shaw, Benton Park West, TowerGrove Park
District 4: Lafayette Square, Peabody-Darst-Webbe, Lasalle, Downtown, Downtown West, St. Louis Place, Carr Square, Columbus Square, Old North St. Louis, Near N. Riverfront
District 5: Jeff Vanderlou, Hyde Park, College Hill, Fairground Neighborhood, O’Fallon, Fairgrounds Park
District 6: Penrose, Mark Twain I-70 Ind., Mark Twain, Walnut Park East, North Point, Baden, Riverview, Walnut Park West, North Riverfront, Penrose Park, O’Fallon Park, Calvary-Bellefontaine Cemetaries
District 7: Central West End, Skinker-DeBaliviere, DeBaliviere Place, West End, Visitation Park, Wells Goodfellow, Academy, Kingsway West, Hamilton Heights
District 8: Fountain Park, Lewis Place, Kingsway East, The Great Ville, The Ville, Vandeventer
District 9: McRee Town, Tiffany, The Gate District, Midtown, Forest Park SE, Covenant Blu-Grand Center
St. Louis HomicideThe Data: 2010-2013 District Homicides
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2013 St. Louis City Districts Homicides
Districts
Hom
icid
es
District 1: Cardonlet, Patch, Holly Hills, Carondelet ParkBoulevard Heights, Bevo Mill, Princeton Heights, Dutchtown, Mount Pleasant, Marine Villa
District 2: South Hampton, St. Louis Hills, Lindenwood Park,Ellendale, Clifton Heights, The Hill, Southwest Garden, North Hampton, Kings Oak, Cheltenham, Clayton-Tamm, Franz Park, Hi-Point, Wydown-Skinker, Forest Park
District 3: Tower Grove South, Gravois Park, Kosciusko, Soulard, Benton Park, McKinley Heights, Fox Park, Tower Grove East, Compton Heights, Shaw, Benton Park West, TowerGrove Park
District 4: Lafayette Square, Peabody-Darst-Webbe, Lasalle, Downtown, Downtown West, St. Louis Place, Carr Square, Columbus Square, Old North St. Louis, Near N. Riverfront
District 5: Jeff Vanderlou, Hyde Park, College Hill, Fairground Neighborhood, O’Fallon, Fairgrounds Park
District 6: Penrose, Mark Twain I-70 Ind., Mark Twain, Walnut Park East, North Point, Baden, Riverview, Walnut Park West, North Riverfront, Penrose Park, O’Fallon Park, Calvary-Bellefontaine Cemetaries
District 7: Central West End, Skinker-DeBaliviere, DeBaliviere Place, West End, Visitation Park, Wells Goodfellow, Academy, Kingsway West, Hamilton Heights
District 8: Fountain Park, Lewis Place, Kingsway East, The Great Ville, The Ville, Vandeventer
District 9: McRee Town, Tiffany, The Gate District, Midtown, Forest Park SE, Covenant Blu-Grand Center
St. Louis Homicide
Districts2014
January February March April May June July August September October November December
1
2
3
4
5 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 3
6 5 1 2 3 3 5 2 4 3 3 1 3
7 0 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2
8
9
The Data: 2014 District Homicides Predictions
January
FebruaryMarch April
MayJune
July
August
September
October
November
December
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2014 St. Louis Homicide Predictions
District 5District 6District 7
Dist
rictsDistrict 5: Jeff Vanderlou, Hyde Park,
College Hill, Fairground Neighborhood, O’Fallon, Fairgrounds Park
District 6: Penrose, Mark Twain I-70 Ind., Mark Twain, Walnut Park East, North Point, Baden, Riverview, Walnut Park West, North Riverfront, Penrose Park, O’Fallon Park, Calvary-Bellefontaine Cemetaries
District 7: Central West End, Skinker-DeBaliviere, DeBaliviere Place, West End, Visitation Park, Wells Goodfellow, Academy, Kingsway West, Hamilton Heights
St. Louis HomicideThe Prediction: Districts and Neighborhoods 2014
District 6: Penrose, Mark Twain I-70 Ind., Mark Twain, Walnut Park East, North Point, Baden, Riverview, Walnut Park West, North Riverfront, Penrose Park, O’Fallon Park, Calvary-Bellefontaine Cemetaries
January February March April May June July August September October November December0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
12.5
10.5
9.75
11.25
12
15.5
12 12
11
13
7.75
12.75
7
5 5
6 6
8
6 6 6
7
4
7
5
2 2
3 3
5
2
4
3 3
2
3
2014 City of St. Louis Homicide Predictions
2013-2010 averages 2010-2013 1/2 of averages 2014 District Predictions (realistically)
Months
Hom
icide
s
Reference Websites Cityrating.com http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/st-louis.html#.UwvuZDiPJ7h http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/#.UwvuhDiPJ7g http://www.stltoday.com/st-louis-area-murder-map/html_3bf7a0a8-0440-5ada-aacf-11e4314a9956.html
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/stl-info/st-louis-crime-reports-for/html_b9d8d540-6d5c-11e1-afa1-0019bb30f31a.html http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/#.UwwLuziPJuE
http://www.slmpd.org/Crimereports.shtml
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