ssai webinar achieving food security in the face of climate change harch sep 7 2012 v1

The Role of Statisticians and Statistical Science

SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE FLAGSHIP

Global Food Security: Achieving food security in the face of climate change

Dr Bronwyn Harch| Deputy Director

7th September, 2012

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social & economic access to sufficient, safe & nutritious food to meet their dietary needs & food preferences for an active & healthy life. United Nations Food & Agriculture Organisation

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 2

Key Challenges

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 3

Growing from 7 billion people today to 9 billion by 2050

1 in 6 undernourished 1.5 billion overweight

1.4 billion live on <USD$1.25 / day

1.5 billion depend on degrading land

1.3 billion tonnes of food wasted

each year

7.5 billion USD lost to extreme weather in 2010

200+ million more hungry after 2007/8 price spikes

12 million ha of additional agricultural land degraded/year

Beddington et al. 2011 available at www.ccafs.cgiar.org/commission

Key Elements to Food Insecurity

Converging threats from climate change, population growth & unsustainable resource use

Resource competition, land degradation & greenhouse gas emissions

Food price volatility & conflicts associated with food shortages

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 4

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Commission on Sustainable Agriculture & Climate Change

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 5

• Established by the Consultative Group on

International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)

• Program on Climate Change, Agriculture & Food Security (CCAFS) with support from the Global Donor Platform for Rural Development (GDPRD)

• 13 eminent natural and social scientists from around the world

• Evidence-based policy recommendations: A ‘road map’ for policy makers Released in November 2011

• Full Report released 28th March 2012

http://ccafs.cgiar.org/commission/

Major Findings

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 6

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Business as usual will not bring food security & environmental sustainability

Need to simultaneously address global agriculture within the context of the food system & climate change

The interconnected nature of these challenges demands an integrated management approach

The world’s poor are less resilient

Seven Recommendations

1. Integrate food security & sustainable agriculture into global & national policies

2. Significantly raise the level of global investment in sustainable agriculture & food systems in the next decade

3. Target populations & sectors most vulnerable to climate change & food insecurity

4. Reshape food access & consumption patterns to ensure basic nutritional needs are met & foster sustainable eating habits worldwide

5. Reduce loss & waste in food systems – particularly from infrastructure, farming practices, processing, distribution & household habits

6. Sustainably intensify agricultural production while reducing greenhouse gas emissions & other negative environmental impacts

7. Create comprehensive, shared, integrated information systems that encompass human & ecological dimensions

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 7

Key insights related to Australia’s interest in food security

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 8

• Australia has a high level of food security

o export ~60% of food production

o produce 1% of world’s food; 3% of traded food

• Share same health/diet issues with higher income countries

• Land and water are increasingly contested

o for food, fibre, fuel and carbon sinks

• Droughts and floods constrain agricultural outputs

• Strong population growth is fuelling community debate on “sustainability”

• National policy related developments and dialogue

• International engagement around food security

Australia’s interests in food security

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 9

DAFF 2012. FOODmap. An analysis of the Australian food supply chain

Action in needed on three fronts

1) reducing demand

2) sustaining existing productivity

3) filling the production gap

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 10

Food Demand Scenarios 1960 to 2050

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Plus 6 or 12 % diversion to biofuels

Plus 20 % wastage loss in value chain

9B people + consumption increase in developing countries

9B people

8B people , no consumption increae

A ‘Mega-wedge’ of Food Demand

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 12

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Filling the Production

Demand

Other “Mega-wedges” of Food Demand ?

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 13

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Glo

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Filling the Production

Demand

Avoiding losses of

productive capacity

Other “Mega-wedges” of Food Demand ?

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 14

Filling the Production

Demand

Avoiding losses of

productive capacity

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Reducing the

Demand

Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge ?

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 15

Reducing the demand trajectory

• Reduce waste along the food value chain

• Reducing over-consumption in human diets

• Rebalancing livestock component of future diets

• Develop “smart biofuel” policies & technologies

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 16

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Avoiding losses of productive capacity • Maintaining pest & disease resistance

& biosecurity

• Avoiding further soil & water degradation

• Climate change mitigation without loss of food security

• Adapting to unavoidable climate change

Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge?

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 17

0

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Filling the production shortfall

• Net expansion of the land footprint

• Net expansion of irrigation footprint

• Expanding aquaculture based production

• Increasing production intensity

• Closing yield gaps (including raising eco-efficiency)

• Raising yield ceilings through new technologies

Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge?

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 19

Pathways ahead for the Govt and Industry?

Translation...

Agri-environmental stewardship

Carbon storage

Productivity

Greenhouse gas abatement

Profitability

Livelihood

Agri-environmental stewardship

Carbon storage Productivity

Greenhouse gas abatement

Profitability Livelihood

Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 22

Pathways ahead for the Govt and Industry?

Contribution of statisticians & statistical science?

◦ innovation ◦ partnerships ◦ knowledge services

What is Agri-Environmental Informatics?

Enhancing * environmental

accounting

* landscape stewardship

* environmental services

* community well-being

* competitive edge

Modelling of Key Processes

Next Generation

Data Acquisition

Technologies

Enabling Risk Informed Decision Making

Design, Integration & Synthesis of

Observational Data

Reflections: innovation, partnerships knowledge services

Deep engagement with stakeholders

adoption and impact

Strong disciplinary science across a range of disciplines

Transdisciplinary integrators and modellers

space, time

competing objectives

High level visualisation and communication technologies

space, time

risk profiles

uncertainty A mosaic of native ecosystems, plantations, and agriculture on Kangaroo Island, SA.

Thank you Sustainable Agriculture Flagship Dr Bronwyn Harch Deputy Director

t +61 7 3833 5631 e bronwyn.harch@csiro.au w www.csiro.au/SAF