spp.org 1. ict construction plan evaluation and reliability assessment part 1 entergy transmission...

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ICT Construction Plan Evaluation and Reliability Assessment Part 1Entergy Transmission Summit

July 29, 2008Astor Crown PlazaNew Orleans, Louisiana

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Presentation Overview

• Background, Assumptions, Procedures

• Base Plan Study Areas

• Contingency Scan of Long-Term Models

1. Near-Term (2009/2013 Models)

2. Long-Term (2017 Model)

• Low Hydro Sensitivity

• Areas Showing Up In Real-Time

• Next Steps

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Assumptions for Construction Plan Contingency Scan

• Models

• Base Case 2007-Series (Update 2)

• Near-term: Summer Peak 2009 and 2013.

• Longer-term: Summer Peak 2017.

• Model Changes

• The latest confirmed transmission service reservations were modeled.

• Newly in-service equipment was modeled.

• All 2009 Draft Construction Plan Projects were added in the year following the in-service year, including Supplemental upgrades.

• 2008 Base Plan upgrades were not included if they were not also in the Draft Construction Plan.

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Assumptions for Construction Plan Contingency Scan

• Monitored Elements and N-1 Contingencies

• All facilities within Entergy footprint including embedded areas and ties to external areas, plus CLECO and LUS at 69 kV and higher.

• First-tier areas at 345 kV and higher.

• NERC Category A:

• Thermal Limits: <100% of Rate A

• Voltage Limits: +/- 5% of Nominal

• NERC Category B:

• Thermal Limits: <100% of Rate A

• Voltage Limits: +5% / -8% of Nominal

• For elements outside the limits, the analysis was repeated for the breaker-to-breaker contingency.

• Elements that were still outside the limits were flagged.

• Elements that were within the limits, but for which the Consequential Load >100 MW were flagged. (“100 MW Rule”)

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Results for Category A

Thermal Overloads

Nominal kV Level 2009 2013 2017

69 0 0 5

115 0 0 1

161 0 0 1

TOTAL 0 0 7

Undervoltages

Nominal kV Level 2009 2013 2017

69 2 4 4

115 0 0 2

138 8 0 0

161 0 0 1

230 0 0 1

500 0 0 0

TOTAL 10 4 8

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Project is not included in

either model

Code for Base Plan and Construction Plan Projects Indicated on Maps

BP08-036 = Project Number from 2008 Base PlanCP(2011) = 2008 Construction Plan and Expected In-Service YearDCP(2011) = 2009 Draft Construction Plan and In-Service Year

Map Legend

BP08-036 CP(2011)

DCP(2011)

Background Color Indicates Projects’ Inclusion In Case

Project is in 2013 model

only

Project is in both 2009 &

2013 models

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Arkansas

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BP08-036 CP(2011)

DCP(2011)

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BP08-003CP(?)

DCP(?)

BP08-002NANA

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BP08-012NANA

BP08-011NANA

BP08-047CP(2011)

DCP(2011)

NANA

DCP(2010)

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BP08-004NANA

BP08-005NANA

(Supplemental)CP(2008)

NA

BP08-001NA

DCP(2013)

BP08-047A-DCP(2008)

DCP(2008)

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BP08-013NANA

BP08-014NANA

BP08-007NANA

BP08-005NANA

BP08-004NANA

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BP08-027NANA

(Supplemental)CP(2010)

DCP(2010)

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BP08-034CP(2008)

DCP(2008)BP08-035CP(2009)

DCP(2009)

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BP08-010CP(2008)

DCP(2008)

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BP08-052CP(2011)

DCP(2011)

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Mississippi

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BP08-020NANA

BP08-058CP(2009)

DCP(2009)

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BP08-061CP(2012)

DCP(2012)

NANA

DCP(2009)

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BP08-046CP(2012)

DCP(2012)

NANA

DCP(2011)

BP08-057CP(2011)

DCP(2011)

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BP08-019NANA

BP08-057CP(2011)

DCP(2011)

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Louisiana

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BP08-052CP(2011)

DCP(2011)

BP08-063CP(2010)

DCP(2010)

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BP08-030NANA

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BP08-049CP(2008)

DCP(2008)

BP08-050CP(2010)

DCP(2010)

BP08-051CP(2010)

DCP(2010)

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BP08-055CP(2008)

DCP(2008) BP08-062CP(2008)

DCP(2008)

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BP08-054CP(2009)

DCP(2009)

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BP08-028NANA

BP08-029NANA

BP08-032CP(2009)

DCP(2009)

NANA

DCP(2012)

(Supplemental)CP(2009)

DCP(2009)

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NANA

DCP (2010)

BP08-031NANA

BP08-048CP(2010)

DCP(2010)

BP08-037CP(2008)

DCP(2008)

BP08-023NANA

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BP08-021NANA

NANA

DCP (2011)BP08-023

NANA

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Texas

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CP(2012)CP(2012)

BP08-024CP(2008)

DCP(2008)

BP08-053CP(2008)

DCP(2008)

NANA

DCP(2012)

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NANA

DCP(2010)

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BP08-042CP(2009)

DCP(2009)

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BP08-043A/BCP(2011/12)

DCP(2011/12)

BP08-041CP(2010)

DCP(2009/11)

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BP08-026CP(2009)

DCP(2009)