spatial economy and demographics. ussr population ussr population (lost 15 mil to civil war/stalin...

SPATIAL ECONOMYSPATIAL ECONOMYAND DEMOGRAPHICS AND DEMOGRAPHICS

USSR PopulationUSSR Population(Lost 15 mil to civil war/Stalin and 14 mil to WWII;

Male shortage one reason for women in both workforce & home)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1939 1950 1991

Millions

Population would have been 440 million in 1991 without wars

DespiteAnnexations!

““State Socialism”State Socialism” • Central planning of “Command Economy”

• Guaranteed job, low rents, health care, daycare, etc.

• Heavy industrialization to catch up to West

• Forced collectivization of private farmlands

• Ukraine (Donbass)

• Urals

• Siberia (Kuzbass)

Industrial regionsIndustrial regions

UkraineUkraine(Donbass)(Donbass)

UralsUrals

SiberiaSiberia(Kuzbass)(Kuzbass)

Mutually dependent/ Mutually dependent/ not self-sufficientnot self-sufficient

Donbass & KuzbassDonbass & Kuzbass

Donbass coalfields, E. Ukraine/

Russia bank of Don.Coal/steel region

since 1870s

Kuzbass coalfields, W. Siberia

Russian urban populationRussian urban population

• Soviets favored large industry over farms & cities– Moscow 30% industrial; Paris only 5%

• Urbanization but without urban services/transit/life

• Prefab worker apartment blocs / housing shortages

Soviet bloc citySoviet bloc cityBudapest,Hungary

Russian urban populationRussian urban populationOverwhelmingly in largest cities

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1917 1939 1959 1989

Percentage ofpopulation in cities

Russian migrationRussian migration

• Soviet controls over movement, travel

• Encouraged moves to big cities, labor shortage areas, frontier zones

• Skilled Russians move to other republics, frontier

• 3 mil. Russians moved back to Russia, 1990s

Soviet ruralSoviet ruraleconomyeconomy

• At first divided aristocrats’/ church estates for peasants

• Stalin forced collectivization of private farms

• Consolidated farmland into Kolkhoz (Cooperative Farm) and Sovkhoz (State Farm), like large estates

• Same in E. Europe 1950s (except Poland, Yugo.)

Drawbacks of Soviet agricultureDrawbacks of Soviet agriculture

• Stalin murdered Kulaks (well-off peasants), 1930s

• Peasants had low status, little incentive

• Command agriculture irrational, favored larger towns; Ended up importing food by 1980s

Gorbachev’s rural changesGorbachev’s rural changes

• Broke state land monopoly, allowed private leases and withdrawals from state farms

• Sell the land? Losing Mir (rural commune) tradition

• Fears of food insecurity, new rural elite, lack of training

Results ofResults ofrural changesrural changes

• Millions of private farms (esp. in south)

• But state farms/coops keep 75% of land, with more democracy, shareholding, efficiency

• Interdependence of old state farms, new private

• Some old estates revived in E. Europe; and some corporate agribusiness

““Shock therapy”Shock therapy” • Close command industries

• Reduce or end subsidies

• Pass burden to renters

• Privatize industrial economy;

benefit new entrepeneurs

• High unemployment,

inflation, inequality

• Hub regions - Government/transportation centers. High-tech industries

- Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kiev, Nizhny Novgorod, Urals

• Gateway regions- Outward looking/ trade-oriented

- Vladivostok, Murmansk, Kaliningrad

Winning regionsWinning regions

• Command military-industrial / coal regions

• State agricultural regions

• Remote natural resource (non-oil)

• Ethnic minority regions in conflict

Losing regionsLosing regions Huge gaps in prices, income, roads

Favorable regions of RussiaFavorable regions of Russia

Unfavorable regions of RussiaUnfavorable regions of Russia

Russian agricultural employmentRussian agricultural employment

Communist vote in 1995 Duma electionCommunist vote in 1995 Duma election

Agricultural zone; older population.Nationalist zones bordering

Muslims, East Asians

Russian industrial employmentRussian industrial employment

Reform party vote in 1995 Duma electionReform party vote in 1995 Duma election

Educated urban areas;Mixed industry-agriculture;

North, east less serfdom history

Russia’s demographics, 1990-2006Russia’s demographics, 1990-2006

Male Female

Effects of war, poor male health

Russian birth rateRussian birth rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1985 1991 1996

Birth rate per 1000

Russian death rateRussian death rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1985 1994 1996

Death rate per 1000

U.S. Baby BoomU.S. Baby Boom USSR instead had “echo busts” slowing growth in 1960s, 1980s

Baby Bust (1965-1980)

Baby Boom (1946-1964)

EchoBoom

Russian life expectancyRussian life expectancyMen dying from alcohol, drugs, accidents, crime;

Male life expectancy now like parts of Third World

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1986 1995

MaleFemale

Russia’s population declinePopulation decline for first time since WWII;

Worries about aging population, labor shortages;Larger families in Muslim regions but not as many industrial workers