space weather effects observed on the ground – geomagnetic...

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Space Weather effects observed on the ground– geomagnetic effects –

J. Watermann

Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark

my thanks to

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Ground-based systems affected by space weather

( physics oriented categories )

• long-distance communication cables

• gas and oil pipelines

• electric power supply grids

sensitive to the time derivative ∂B/∂t

• magnetic anomaly surveys (e.g., aeromagnetic surveys)

• directional well drilling

affected by the amplitude δB

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Ground-based systems affected by space weather

( technical and economical categories )

• gas and oil pipelines (long-term or cumulative effects)

• electric power supply grids (single-event upsets)

may suffer equipment damage under adverse conditions

• long-distance communication cables

• magnetic anomaly surveys (e.g., aeromagnetic surveys)

• directional drilling operations

no direct damage but operation possibly impeded

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First physics category

equipment sensitive to the time derivative ∂B/∂t

• long-distance communication cables

• gas and oil pipelines

• electric power supply grids

problems can arise from geomagnetically induced currents

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Medford et al., Geomagnetic induction on a transatlantic communications cable, Nature 290, 392, 1981

Medford et al., Transatlantic earth potential variations during the March 1989 magnetic storms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 16(10), 1145, 1989

Lanzerotti et al., Response of large-scale geoelectric fields to identified interplanetary disturbances and the equatorial ring current, Adv. Space Res., 26(1), 21, 2000

Lanzerotti, Space weather effects on communications, Space Storms and Space Weather Hazards, NATO Science Series II-38, Kluwer, 313, 2001 (ranges from telegraph to satellite communication)

Campbell, Observation of electric currents in the Alaska oil pipeline resulting from auroral electrojet current sources, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 61, 437, 1980

Campbell, An interpretation of induced electric currents in long pipelines caused by natural geomagnetic sources of the upper atmosphere, Surveys in Geophysics, 8, 239, 1986

Boteler, Geomagnetic effects on the pipe-to-soil potentials of a continental pipeline, Adv. Space Res., 26(1), 15, 2000

Pulkkinen et al., Recordings and occurence of geomagnetically induced currents in the Finnish natural gas pipeline network, J. App. Geo., 48, 219, 2001

Viljanen & Pirjola, Geomagnetically induced currents in the Finnish high voltage power system, Surveys in Geophysics, 15, 383, 1994

Boteler et al., The effects of geomagnetic disturbances on electrical systems at the Earth's surface, Adv. Space Res., 22(1), 17, 1998 (includes appendix with list of historic GIC events)

Pirjola et al., Prediction of geomagnetically induced currents in power transmission systems, Adv. Space Res., 26(1), 5, 2000

Kappenman, An introduction to power grid impacts and vulnerabilties from space weather, Space Storms and Space Weather Hazards, NATO Science Series II-38, Kluwer, 335, 2001

Kappenman, Space weather and the vulnerability of electric power grids, Effects of Space Weather on Technology Infrastructure, NATO Science Series, II-176, Kluwer, 257, 2004

Béland & Small, Space weather effects on power transmission systems: the cases of Hydro-Québec and Transpower New Zealand Ltd, Effects of Space Weather on Technology Infrastructure, NATO Science Series, II-176, Kluwer, 287, 2004

Boteler, Geomagnetic hazards to conducting networks, Natural Hazards 28, Kluwer, 537, 2003

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Geomagnetic induction:

basic physical principles

7ωσµ=

µωσ

=σµ

ω=

∂∂

σµ=∇∂∂

σµ=∇

⇓

≅ρ≡σµ=µ

σ=

=⋅∇ρ=⋅∇

∂∂

+µ=×∇∂∂

−=×∇

0

2y

0

2x

2y

0

2x

02

02

0

0

2d

depthat 1/e toreduced amplitude

BjBE

field source waveplane harmonic assume

tB

BtE

E

equationdiffusion

band ELF & ULF torestricted

0 finite and uniform

Ej

0BD

tD

jBtB

E

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Long-distance communication cables,specifically transoceanic cables

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atmosphere

ocean(halfspace)

unrealistic situation

atmosphere

ocean

sediment (halfspace)

more (but not entirely) realistic situation

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Magnetic field amplitude: sea bottom vs. sea surface

computed after Schmucker, Anomalies of geomagnetic variations in the Southwestern United States, Bull. Scripps Inst. Oceanogr. 13, 1970

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TransAtlantic Telecommunications (TAT) cables

event voltage excursion

TAT-6 (electric) Sq ~5 VTAT-7 (electric) 10/19/84 ~30 VTAT-7 04/21/85 ~60 VTAT-8 (optic + PFE) ssc 03/13/89 ~75 VTAT-8 03/13/89, 1110 UT ~300 VTAT-8 03/13/89, 2145 UT ~450 VTAT-8 03/14/89, 0130 UT ~700 V

table after Medford et al., GRL 16, 1989

constantcurrent

constantvoltage

North America Europe

metal or fiber-optic cable + power feed equipment

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Gas and oil pipelines

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Pipeline problem: corrosion through induction

H2O ⇒ H+ + OH–

Fe++ + 2 (OH)– ⇒ Fe(OH)2

Fe+++ + 3 (OH)– ⇒ Fe(OH)3

Rust is formed if the cathodic potential exceeds the safety limit of about 850–1150 mV (negative pipe potential with respect to surrounding soil).Pipelines bends are particularly vulnerable.

However, the problem exists only if

(1) the (normally insulating) pipe coating is damaged, and

(2) the chemical reaction lasts long enough or is frequently repeated

must be kept away from steel pipe

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Large area electric power supply nets

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best known

"Hydro-Québec blackout"1989-03-13, 07:45 UT

lasted 9 hours in some parts

affected eastern Canada and northeastern USA

_____________________________

more recent and less known outside Europe

"Malmö blackout"2003-10-30, 20:07 UT

lasted 20-50 min

affected various parts of southern Sweden

16figure from Viljanen et al., ICS-7,2004

17figure compiled by A.Viljanen, 2004

plane wave induced electric field assuming a 100 Ω⋅m halfspace

20:03:2020:07:10

21:19:40

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Geomagnetic observatoriesand selected variometer stations operated by DMI

Brorfelde: MLT ≅ UT + 1.7 hrs

Greenland west coast:MLT ≅ UT – 2.4 hrs

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Greenland Magnetometry

Dotted grid geographic latitude and longitude

Dashed lines corrected geomagnetic latitude (epoch 2000.0)

Dotted line best-fit great circle west coast stations

Blue circles DMI magnetometer stations

Red circles MAGIC sites (SPRL, Univ. of Michigan)

Blue triangles DMI geomagnetic observatories

Full circles data from preceding day are transmittedto DMI via modem and telephone line (presently every morning around 03 UT)

Open circles data are stored locally and sent to DMIvia snail mail (up to several months delay)

Black Roman data are transmitted to DMI in near realtime (presently every 15 min, in thefuture possibly more frequently)

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δB/δt (1-s samples) at DMI magnetometer sites

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δB/δt [nT/s] – peak values

THL (85.1° cgml) +8.6 E -10.1 E 10.3 H (20:00 – 20:10)

UPN (79.3° cgml) +8.9 N -6.5 N 8.9 H (20:00 – 20:10)

GDH (75.6° cgml) +7.2 E -8.8 N 9.9 H (20:00 – 20:10)

SKT (71.7° cgml) +8.2 N -8.1 N 9.0 H (20:00 – 20:10)

NAQ (66.1° cgml) +14.4 E -10.2 N 17.1 H (20:00 – 20:10)

BFE (52.1° cgml) +9.6 N -9.4 N 9.7 H (20:00 – 20:10)

+12.0 E -17.5 E 18.1 H (≈ 21:20)

Is this latitudinal distribution of amplitude andtime derivative typical – or is it exceptional ?

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Method

(1) select those days during the the first nine months of 2003 during which DMI's observatories delivered usable 1-s samples virtually over the entire day

(2) remove spikes and jumps and bridge individual invalid data points

(3) apply lowpass filter with 10-s cutoff and subtract daily mean

(4) divide filtered time series into 1-min segments

(5) find in each segment the maximum absolute horizontal deviation from zero level

vark(i) = max δHk2 (i) + δEk

2 (i) ½

(6) return to the uncorrected and unfiltered time series and compute time derivatives

derivk (i) = [δHk (i+1) - δHk (i)]2+ [δEk (i+1) - δEk (i)]2 ½

(7) bin variances and time derivatives with respect to magnitude (increase bin width with increasing magnitude)

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The largest ∂B/∂t values occur during geomagnetic storms

• auroral electrojet expansion and intensification

• ring current intensification

• ssc

26figure from Kappenman, ESPRIT lectures volume, 2004

27figure from Kappenman, ESPRIT lectures volume, 2004

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Second physics category

equipment sensitive to the amplitude δB

• magnetic anomaly surveys (e.g., aeromagnetic surveys)

• directional well drilling

potential problems caused by geomagnetic variations

( reference field variations )

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Magnetic anomaly surveys,specifically aeromagnetic surveys

operations impeded bylarge-amplitude total field variations

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figure from Rasmussen and van Gool, GEUS, 2000

31figure from Rasmussen and van Gool, GEUS, 2000

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How does the magnitude of magnetostatic anomaliescompare to the amplitude of geomagnetic variations ?

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Method

(1) select those days during the the first nine months of 2003 during which DMI's observatories delivered usable 1-s samples virtually over the entire day

(2) remove spikes and jumps and bridge individual invalid data points

(3) apply lowpass filter with 10-s cutoff and subtract daily mean

(4) divide filtered time series into 1-min segments

(5) find in each segment the maximum absolute total field deviation from zero level

vark(i) = max δHk2 (i) ⋅ cos2(Ik) + δZk

2 (i) ⋅ sin2(Ik) ½

(6) find the number of 1-min intervals where at least one data point exceeds 100 nT and 200 nT, respectively

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Sample case: West Greenland

magnetostatic total field anomaly range: –200 to +500 nT

relative number of 1-min intervals in which the total field deviation exceeds ±100 nT and ±200 nT, respectively

±100 nT ±200 nT

THL (85.1° cgml) 3.6% 0.3 %

GDH (75.6° cgml) 20.0% 2.6 %

NAQ (66.1° cgml) 8.6% 1.2 %

BFE (52.1° cgml) 0.1% .03 %

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Directional well drillingcontrolled by borehead magnetometers

operations impeded bylong-lasting large-amplitude total field variations

37figure from Clark and Clarke, SWW ESTEC, 2001

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Diurnal distribution of the largest 0.2% of ~20 years of geomagnetic field variations

figures provided by H. Gleisner, 2004

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Qualitative risk assessment

• Statistically, the polar cap (>73°) is subject to the largest δB.

• Statistically, the nominal auroral zone (~66° cgml) is subject to the largest ∂B/∂t, even under severe storm conditions when the largest δB may occur at subauroral latitudes.

• Magnetic anomaly surveys and directional well-drilling activities are affected by large δB.

• Electric power networks, pipelines and telecommunication cables are sensitive to ∂B/∂t.

• The most damaging GIC effects occur in large electric power grids. Pipelines and transoceanic cables are of lesser concern.

• Large magnetic field variations are annoying for drilling and surveying but not directly damaging