southern california endemic habitatsclimate.calcommons.org/sites/default/files/ecoadapt... ·...

ClimatechangevulnerabilityassessmentfortheSouthernCaliforniaClimateAdaptationProject.CopyrightEcoAdapt2017.

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SouthernCaliforniaEndemicHabitatsClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessmentSummary

AnImportantNoteAboutthisDocument:Thisdocumentrepresentsaninitialevaluationofvulnerabilityforendemichabitatsbasedonexpertinputandexistinginformation.Specifically,theinformationpresentedbelowcompriseshabitatexpertvulnerabilityassessmentsurveyresultsandcomments,peer-reviewcommentsandrevisions,andrelevantreferencesfromtheliterature.Theaimofthisdocumentistoexpandunderstandingofhabitatvulnerabilitytochangingclimateconditions,andtoprovideafoundationfordevelopingappropriateadaptationresponses.

HabitatDescription12345Endemichabitatsfeaturespecializedanddistinctvegetativecommunitiesthatareadaptedtoharshanduniqueconditionsderived,inpart,fromparentsoilmaterial.1-5Endemichabitatsaretypicallylimitedindistribution,occupyingdistinctareaswithinthesouthernCaliforniastudyarea.1Endemichabitatsconsideredinthisassessmentinclude:serpentine,gabbro,carbonate,pebbleplains,andclaylenscommunities.

HabitatVulnerability

TherelativevulnerabilityofendemichabitatsinsouthernCaliforniawasevaluatedtobemoderatebyhabitatexpertsduetomoderatesensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatestressors,moderateexposuretoprojectedfutureclimatechanges,andmoderateadaptivecapacity.Shiftsinprecipitation,moistureavailability,andtemperaturemayaffectendemichabitatcomposition,survival,andvulnerabilitytonon-climaticstressors.Endemiccommunitieshavevariableresponsestofire,butincreasingfirefrequenciesareunlikelytobenefiteventhemostfire-adaptedcommunitiesduetoslowrecoveryfollowingdisturbance.Endemichabitatsfaceavarietyofnon-climaticstressorsthatreducehabitatresiliencebyincreasingfragmentationand/orbyexacerbatingclimate-drivenchanges;humanpopulationgrowthmayincreasetheseverity/extentofthesestressorsinthefuture.Uniquesoilrequirementslargelymoderateendemichabitatdistribution,speciescomposition,andsensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatestressors.Small,isolatedpopulations,specificsoilrequirements,limiteddispersalcapacity,andseverallandscapebarrierslimitendemichabitatdispersalandrecoverypotentialinthefaceofclimatechange,butspecializedvegetationenhanceshabitatresistance.Endemicsystemsprovideavarietyofecosystemservicesincludingbiodiversityandrecreation.

ModerateVulnerability

PhotobyCaliforniaDept.ofFishandWildlife(CC-BY-2.0)

ModerateConfidence

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Sensitivity

Endemichabitatsaresensitivetoseveralclimatedrivers,includingdrought,precipitation,soilmoisture,andextremehightemperatureevents.Ingeneral,endemichabitatsareadaptedtoharshconditions(e.g.,lowmoistureandnutrientavailability)andarefairlyresilienttofluctuationsinprecipitationandtemperatureduetohistoricalexposure,althoughindividualspeciesresiliencevaries.2Inaddition,uniquesoilpropertiesalsocontrolendemicspeciescomposition,distribution,andsensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatedrivers.1,3-5Endemicsystemsaresensitivetoavarietyofnon-climatestressorsthatdestroy,fragment,and/ordegradehabitats,aswellasexacerbateclimatechangeimpacts.1,5HumanpopulationgrowthinsouthernCaliforniawilllikelyenhancemanyofthesenon-climatestressors,furtherincreasingrisktoendemiccommunitiesasdevelopmentapproachesnationalforestboundaries.

Habitatsensitivityfactorsandimpacts*

CLIMATICDRIVERSModerateSensitivityModerateConfidence

Precipitation&soilmoisture

Endemiccommunitiesarelargelyadaptedtowaterstressandunproductivesoils,2butshiftsinprecipitationorsoilmoisturemayresultin:• Alteredspeciescomposition,cover,richness,andfitness• Alteredvulnerabilitytonon-climatestressors(e.g.,invasivespeciesin

serpentinehabitats;6-9soildisturbanceinpebbleplains)4,56789Drought Droughtimpactsarevariabledependingondroughtlength,seedbank

persistence,dormancycues,phenologyandresilienceofpollinatorsandmycorrhizae,soilmicrobes,andotherfactors.Increaseddroughtmayresultin:• Increasedmortalityandreducedgerminationandrecruitmentforsome

habitats10-12101112• Alteredinvasivespeciespressure9andconiferandshrubencroachment

patternsExtremehightemperatureevents

Airtemperaturemayinfluenceplantsurvivalorcommunitycomposition.Increasedairtemperaturesmaycause:• Alteredcommunitycompositionorencroachmentofothervegetative

communities,4particularlyiftemperaturechangesdrivesnowpackshifts• Alteredplantsurvival;manyphysiologicalheattolerancesareunknown

Snowpack† Incarbonateandserpentinecommunities,snowpackprovidesinsulationandreduceswinddesiccation.13,14Inpebbleplainscommunities,snowpackprotectstheclay-soilmatrixandpromotesfrostheaveintherootzone,helpingpreventshrubandtreeencroachment.Decreasedsnowpackmaycause:• Higherexposuretowindandcoldtemperatures• Increasedvulnerabilitytotreeandshrubencroachment• Increasederosion

*Factorspresentedarethoserankedhighestbyhabitatexperts.AfulllistofevaluatedfactorscanbefoundintheEndemicsHabitatsClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessmentSynthesis.†Onlysomeendemichabitatsaresensitivetosnowpackdepth(i.e.,pebbleplains,serpentine,carbonate).

ModerateSensitivity HighConfidence

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DISTURBANCEREGIMESModerateSensitivityHighConfidenceWildfire Endemichabitatsvaryintheirsensitivitytowildfire:carbonatecommunitiesare

fairlyfire-intolerant,5serpentinespeciesareadaptedtoperiodicfire,3,5,15andgabbrocommunitiesdependonfireforregeneration.5Manycommunitiesareslowtorecoverfromfire.4,5Alteredfireregimescouldcause:• Shiftsinspeciescomposition,enhancedmortality,morefrequent

regenerationfailures,orpotentialtypeconversiontoothersystems4,5,15NON-CLIMATESTRESSORSModerateSensitivity&ExposureModerateConfidence

Serpentinecommunities

• Invasivespecies:atmosphericnitrogen(N)depositionreducesnaturalresiliencetoinvasion;6,16enhancedNdepositionandelevatedwateravailabilityincreaseinvasionsuccessovertime,whiledisturbanceincreasesshort-terminvasivesuccess7

• Off-roadvehicles:mayincreasetramplinganddisturbance17,18• Grazing,energyandmining:historicalstressors(lessprevalenttoday)5,8

Carbonatecommunities

• Energyproductionandmining:limestone,sand/gravel,andcalcium-carbonateminingmaydestroyorfragmenthabitat,alterlocalmicroclimates,causedirectmortalityorundesirableedgeeffects,andaffectplantphenologythroughlightpollution12

• Manyotherhumanactivitiesmayalterandfragmenthabitat,increasesoilcompactionanderosion,altersurface/soilhydrologyandaffectplantvigorandfitness1,5,12

Gabbrocommunities

• Miningandland-useconversion:maydegradeorextirpategabbrospecies1,4

Pebbleplainscommunities

• Recreation:maycausetrampling,uprooting,sedimentation,andsoilloss1,5• OHVandillegalvehicleuse:rutsaltersurfacehydrologyandcausesoil

compaction,removetheclaymatrix,destroyvegetation,andinvertseedbanks,5especiallywhensoilsaresaturated

• Roads:alternaturalsheetwaterflow,generatedustthatdisruptsphotosynthesisandreproduction,facilitateinvasivespeciesestablishment,5andprovideaccesspointsforunauthorizedvehicles

• Invasivespecies:alterecologicalfunctioning,1competeformoistureandnutrients,andincreasesurfaceorganics

• Firesuppression:salinewaterandpersonnelcamps/vehiclesharmplants1

Exposure‡

Underfutureclimateconditions,endemichabitatsarelikelytobeexposedtoprecipitationchangesandincreasedwildfire.Thescientificliteratureprojectsthatroughly66%ofendemic‡RelevantreferencesforregionalclimateprojectionscanbefoundintheSouthernCaliforniaClimateOverview(http://ecoadapt.org/programs/adaptation-consultations/socal).

ModerateExposure ModerateConfidence

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planttaxainCaliforniawilllikelyexperiencesignificantrangereductions(>80%)by2100.19Projectionsindicatethatendemicplantdiversitymayshifttowardmorecoastaland/ornorthernlocationsinCaliforniabytheendofthecentury,althoughsomespeciesmayexhibitsouthwardmovementastheyattempttocolonizethecoastalmountainsofsouthernCalifornia.19Inaddition,topographicalrefugiamayalsobepresentatthelocalscale.14Migrationtorefugiawillbelimitedbyspatialisolation,soilspecificity,limiteddispersalcapacity,andtheseverityandinteractionofvariousclimatechanges.2,14,19

Projectedclimateandclimate-drivenchangesforSouthernCaliforniaCLIMATICDRIVERS PROJECTEDCHANGE

Precipitation&snowpack

Variableannualprecipitationvolumeandtiming,withwetterwintersanddriersummers;reducedsnowpack(-42%)andearliersnowmeltbymid-century

Soilmoisture&drought

Increasedclimaticwaterdeficit;longerandmoreseveredroughtswithdroughtyearstwiceaslikelytooccur

Wildfire Increasedfiresize,frequency,andseverityAirtemperature&extremeheat

events

+2.5to+9°Cby2100;heatwaves,particularlyhumidnighttimeheatevents,willoccurmorefrequently,lastlonger,andfeaturehottertemperatures

AdaptiveCapacity§

Smallandisolatedpopulations,uniquesoilrequirements,limiteddispersalcapacity,andseverallandscapebarriersmayinhibittheabilityofendemichabitatstotrackshiftsinclimate.Althoughendemicvegetationisadaptedtofairlyharshconditions,thesespeciesaretypicallyslowtorecoverfromdisturbance.Endemichabitatsharborhighbiodiversity,butalsomanythreatenedandendangeredspecies,whichmaybemoresensitivetoclimatechangeduetolimiteddistribution.1,2,5,19,20Amajorityofserpentine,carbonate,andpebbleplainshabitatsoccuronnationalforestland,whilethemajorityofgabbrooutcropsoccuronnon-federalland.1

Habitatadaptivecapacityfactorsandcharacteristics**FACTORS HABITATCHARACTERISTICSHabitatextent,integrity,&continuity

Low-Moderate

ModerateConfidence

-Smallanddisjunctpopulations1-5arevulnerabletoextirpation19,20

-Limiteddispersaldistances(average10-100m;rare>1km),2,11makeitunlikelythatendemicspecieswillkeeppacewithclimatechange19

-Manyendemicshavelowproductivity,recoverslowlyfrom

§Pleasenotethatthecolorschemeforadaptivecapacityhasbeeninverted,asthosefactorsreceivingarankof“High”enhanceadaptivecapacitywhilethosefactorsreceivingarankof“Low”undermineadaptivecapacity.**Characteristicswithagreenplussigncontributepositivelytohabitatadaptivecapacity,whilecharacteristicswitharedminussigncontributenegativelytohabitatadaptivecapacity.

ModerateAdaptiveCapacity HighConfidence

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FACTORS HABITATCHARACTERISTICSdisturbance,andareoutcompetedonallbutthemostuniqueandharshsoiltypes1,4,5

Landscapepermeability

Moderate

ModerateConfidence

-Thereareseveralbarrierstoendemichabitat/speciesdispersal,includingenergyproductionandmining,transportationcorridors,land-useconversion,grazing,andgeologicfeatures

-Dispersalisalsolimitedbyspecificsoilrequirements2

Resistance&recovery

Low-Moderate

ModerateConfidence

+Vegetationisadaptedtouniqueandharshconditions-Recoveryisslowandlimited

Habitatdiversity

Moderate-High

ModerateConfidence

+/-Collectivediversityamongstallendemichabitatsishigh;diversitywithinagivenendemicassociationislower

+Highendemism;harbormanythreatenedandendangeredplantandanimalspecies21

Managementpotential

Low-Moderate

HighConfidence

+Moderatesocietalvalue:valuedforrecreationalopportunities,scenicquality,biodiversity,habitatprovisioning,andendemism

+Endemichabitatsprovideavarietyofecosystemservices:biodiversity,watersupply/quality/sedimenttransport,recreation,carbonsequestration,nitrogenretention,airquality,publichealth,fireregimecontrols,andfloodanderosionprotection

-Somehabitatsvaluedforeconomicpotential(e.g.,mining),whichmaythreatenhabitatpersistence

RecommendedCitationReynier,W.A.,L.E.Hilberg,andJ.M.Kershner.2017.SouthernCaliforniaEndemicHabitats:ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessmentSummary.Version1.0.EcoAdapt,BainbridgeIsland,WA.

ThisdocumentisavailableonlineattheEcoAdaptwebsite(http://ecoadapt.org/programs/adaptation-consultations/socal).

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