social and policy contexts for environmental modeling courtland l. smith

Social and Policy Contexts for Social and Policy Contexts for Environmental ModelingEnvironmental Modeling

Courtland L. SmithCourtland L. SmithDepartment of AnthropologyDepartment of Anthropology

iEMSsiEMSsW6: Developing tools to support W6: Developing tools to support

management and policymanagement and policy

July 12, 2006July 12, 2006

NETS: Northwest Educational Trawler Simulation

Some of my modeling experiences & lessons

Social and Policy Context

• Model design For whom Interacting with

• Making models social Social networks Values, beliefs, frames Complex systems & disciplines

• Possible pathways forward

End-users are persons, groups, or entities who might be informed or gain knowledge from modeling tools.

Stakeholders are people affected by the policies adopted or plans created to resolve a particular environmental management action or issue.

Clients have a financial interest in the modeling or software development.

End-users, Stakeholders, Clients

Property MeaningReactive Responds to environment

Autonomous Controls own actions

Goal-oriented More than responsive to environment

Temporally continuous Agent behavior continuous

Communicative Communicates with other agents

Mobile Can transport self to other locations

Flexible Actions not scripted

Learning Changes based on experience

Character Believable personality or emotions

Adapted from Benenson and Torrens (2004:156)

Agent Properties

Property MeaningReactive Responds to environment

Autonomous Controls own actions

Social Interacts with other actors

Goal-oriented More than responsive to environment

Temporally continuous Agent behavior continuous

Communicative Communicates with other agents

Mobile Can transport self to other locations

Flexible Actions not scripted

Learning Changes based on experience

Character Believable personality or emotions

Adapted from Benenson and Torrens (2004:156)

Agent Properties

People collaborate & work in groups

West Eugene Wetlands Project1200 acres, 13 Years$40 million, 25 funding sourcesMany partners, includingEugene, Lane County, BLM, TNC, USACE, EPA,USFW, DSL, DEQ

Projects require networking & partnerships:

Most human actions involve social networks

Ames Creek Project communications network

The Goal?

Source: Scott’s Fertilizer Company (www.scotts.com)

Judgment Day

Watchful, judgmental neighbors“Most of my neighbors do an extremely poor

job, that guy over there only comes out twice a year!”

“People have been getting better, but most of them have a long way to go.”

Perfect yard = no criticism

From Nielson 2003

Also: frames, mental maps, beliefs

Sources of Information

Schematic of Milbrath’s findings representing the US public’s position on the DSP-NEP continuum. DSP is dominant social paradigm, NEP is new ecological paradigm.

From Kempton et al. 1995:200

Schematic of Kempton’s findings representing the US public’s position on the DSP-NEP continuum. DSP is dominant social paradigm, NEP is new ecological paradigm

From Kempton et al. 1995:201

Values Theory Theory of Mind

Value orientations

Normative behaviors

Actions

Normative goals

Intentions

Behaviors

ENV ATTITUDES: New environmental paradigm score for representative sample of Oregon and Washington residents (n=3022 respondents)

ENV ACTION: Frequency histogram of ALLVOTES yes (n=1516 ITUs)

Survey Behavior

Economics Values

cell

ACTORWT_0

-2.00 - -1.76

-1.75 - -1.58

-1.57 - -1.22

-1.21 - -0.82

-0.81 - -0.61

-0.60 - -0.38

-0.37 - -0.11

-0.10 - 0.18

0.19 - 0.45

0.46 - 0.73

0.74 - 0.94

0.95 - 1.13

1.14 - 1.31

1.32 - 1.51

1.52 - 1.77

1.78 - 2.11

2.12 - 2.41

2.42 - 2.66

2.67 - 2.89

2.90 - 3.00

Scale of

Spatially-explicit values variance among 15,000 actors

Conclusions & Pathways Forward

Organize model and DIST development and design to incorporate people knowledgeable of social processes

Three interconnected pathways1. Make modeling

teams more interdisciplinary

Social Process Diagram

http://cesimo.ing.ula.ve/GAIA/SPD/spd_image.html

Conclusions & Pathways Forward

Organize model and DIST development and design to incorporate people knowledgeable of social processes

Three interconnected pathways1. Make modeling

teams more interdisciplinary

2. Bring in end-users, stakeholders & clients early and often

Experiential learning works best for young and especially mature learners

Conclusions & Pathways Forward

Organize model and DIST development and design to incorporate people knowledgeable of social processes

Three interconnected pathways1. Make modeling

teams more interdisciplinary

2. Bring in end-users, stakeholders & clients early and often

3. Build problem-focused tools

Questions?Clarifications?Comments?Rebuttals?Elaborations?

Time for discussion?

Thank you for your attention.