simtransco2 a freight transportation simulation model - an emission permit policy analysis tool...
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SimTrans•Co2SimTrans•Co2• A freight transportation simulation
model -• An emission permit policy analysis
tool
Michel Karsky (KBS) Patrice Salini (Inrets)
Palermo 2002Palermo 2002
2
SimTrans•Co2
• To model • To apply • To convince
3
To model
• SimTrans (developed in 1999-2000) : – An attempt to analyze the dynamics
of the freight transportation market in France
(Road, Rail ,Inland waterways)
Funded as a Research Program
4
To apply
• SimTrans Co2 (2001-2002) : Explore the consequences of the Kyoto
protocol and the implementation of an emission credit trade system
Commissioned by ADEME (National Environmental Agency)
5
To convince
• Use of a posteriori causal loop diagrams for long term analyses
6
To model
• SimTrans is focused on land transportation and modal split
• 3 sectors : – Road– Rail– Inland Waterways
7
To model
• A Modal supply is a combination of :– Means (Capacity)– Productivity– Quality
8
To model truck capacity
road transport possibilities
road transport quality
rate of investment truck capacity obsolescence
~rate of interest
demand supply ratio
road transport productivity
productivity rate of change
quality rate of change
demand supply ratio
road transport conformity rate
merchandise damage rate
trucking average speed
road transport commercial offer
road transport margin
investment in road transport
obsolescence
road transport industrialization
Co2 constraint
~cost increase
average unit load
–Means (Capacity)
–Productivity
–Quality
9
To model
• Modal split as a result of competition between different attractiveness
• Attractiveness as a result of means, productivity and quality levels
10
To modelDEMAND MENU TRANSPORTS
Agriculture Products Foods
Chemicals & Fertilizers
Metallurgical Products
Construction Materials
Energy Components
Other ProductsGlobal DemandGeneral
Menu
Agricultural
Products
11
To apply
SimTrans + + an analysis of the effect of the Kyoto protocol
12
To apply
• The Kyoto protocol aims at reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases responsible for global warming.
• In EU, the transportation sector is to blame for 28% of emissions of CO2
• CO2 emissions from transportation are expected to increase by around 50% by 2010
13
Source : GRID-Arendal in co-operation with the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the 7th Conference of the Parties (COP-7) to the Convention, held in Marrakesh, Morocco 29th October to 9th November 2001.
14
To apply
• SimTrans Co2 explores a C02 emission reduction trade system for trucks (inside the EU “Bubble”)
15
To apply
Co2 emitted
Warming effect
policy
Emission regulations
and norms
taxation
Negociable
Emission Permits
Unit fuel
consumption
fuel unit cost
fuel consumption +
+
+
+
+
+
- - -
Investment
+
+
Capacity
Productivity
+
+
+
Simplified Causal Diagram of Co2 and Emission Permit addition to SIMTRANS
16
To apply
• Emission trading has no impact
13:40 Mar 9 juil 2002
Untitled
Page 61998.00 2003.50 2009.00 2014.50 2020.00
Years
1:
1:
1:
20000000,00
30000000,00
40000000,00Emission CO2: 1 - 2 - 3 -
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
1.No action2. Emission Credit 3. Global Policy packageCO2 Emmission (Tons)
17
To apply
13:40 Mar 9 juil 2002
Untitled
Page 7
1998.00 2003.50 2009.00 2014.50 2020.00
Years
1:
1:
1:
100,00
135,00
170,00
IndiceTransport Tot: 1 - 2 - 3 -
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
2. Emission Credit
3. Global Policy package
1.No action
Transportation (t.km) Index (base 100 : 1998)
18
To convinceSector Growth
average unit price
supply/demand ratio
transport
Unit margin
Average Unit Cost
labor unit cost
fuel unit cost
Negociable
Emission Permits
CO2Unit Consumption
fuel consumption
-
+
+
+
other supply sources+
+
+
+
-
productivity
-
-
+
demand
-
+
supply
-
+
+
Veh-km
Average Unit Load
Capacity
Total authorized
weight
+
+
+
Rapidity
Congestion
Max speed
Infrastructures
-
+
-
+
+
Investment
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-Desired Unit Margin
+
+
Freight-km offered
+
++
-
emission
regulations and
norms
taxation
- -
Warming effect
policy
+
+ +
+
+
Feedback loop analysis
19
To convince Sector Growth
average unit price
supply/demand ratio
transport
Unit margin
Average Unit Cost
labor unit cost
fuel unit cost
Negociable
Emission Permits
CO2Unit Consumption
fuel consumption
-
+
+
+
other supply sources+
+
+
+
-
productivity
-
-
+
demand
-
+
supply
-
+
+
Veh-km
Average Unit Load
Capacity
Total authorized
weight
++
+
Rapidity
Congestion
Max speed
Infrastructures
-
+
-
+
+
Investment
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-Desired Unit Margin
+
+
Freight-km offered
+
++
-
emission regulations
and norms
taxation
- -
Warming effect
policy
+
+
+
+
Feedback loop analysis
20
To convince Sector Growth
average unit
price
supply/demand ratio
transport
Unit margin
Average Unit
Cost
labor unit cost
fuel unit cost
Negociable
Emission Permits
CO2
Unit
Consumption
fuel
consumption
-
+
+
+
other supply sources+
+
+
+
-
productivity
-
-
+
demand
-
+
supply
-
+
+
Veh-km
Average Unit Load
Capacity
Total authorized
weight
+
+
+
Rapidity
Congestion
Max speed
Infrastructures
-
+
-
+
+
Investment
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-Desired Unit Margin
+
+
Freight-km offered
+
++
-
emission regulations
and norms
taxation
--
Warming effect
policy
+
+
+
+
Feedback loop analysis
21
average unit
price
supply/demand
ratio
transport
Average Unit
CostCO2
Unit
Consumption
fuel consumption
+
+
productivity
-
-
demand
-
supply
+
Veh-km
+
+
+
+
taxation
-
Warming effect
policy
+
Feedback loop analysis
To convince
22
To convince
Unit margin
Average Unit
Cost
Negociable
Emission Permits
CO2
fuel consumption
-
+
productivityVeh-km
Average Unit
Load
Capacity
+
+
Investment
+
-
-
Warming effect
policy
+
Feedback loop analysis
23
SimTrans•CO2SimTrans•CO2• Michel Karsky : kbsfr@noos.fr• Patrice Salini : patrice.salini@inrets.fr
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