si ego certiorem faciam, mihi tu delendus eris – the greek goddess of chaos! homer
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Experimentation of Complex, Adaptive Aerospace Mission Capabilities Experimentation of Complex, Adaptive Aerospace Mission Capabilities - An International Code of Best Practice for T&E - An International Code of Best Practice for T&E & Experimentation – & Experimentation – Spousal Family of Systems ParableSpousal Family of Systems Parable
Si ego Certiorem Faciam, Mihi Tu Delendus Eris – the Greek Goddess of Chaos! HomerSi ego Certiorem Faciam, Mihi Tu Delendus Eris – the Greek Goddess of Chaos! Homer
Wing Commander Malcolm G. Tutty MEng, CPEng, FRAeS, FIE(Aust)UniSA DASI PhD Candidate / HQSRG SO1TC – Airmalcolm.tutty@defence.gov.au / www.maltutty.com – Use visitor / Maven1
The FICS & ‘FOC Effectors’The FICS & ‘FOC Effectors’
FICS – Fundamental Inputs to FICS – Fundamental Inputs to CapabilityCapability
DrivenDriven by OCDs & Conops by OCDs & Conops
•PersonnelPersonnel•OrganisationOrganisation•Collective TrainingCollective Training•Major SystemsMajor Systems•SuppliesSupplies•Facilities & Training AreasFacilities & Training Areas•Command & ManagementCommand & Management
•User perspectives at all levels User perspectives at all levels (Sqn/Wing/Group/HQs) need to (Sqn/Wing/Group/HQs) need to be identified and argued for ...be identified and argued for ...
FOC Effectors - Fundamental FOC Effectors - Fundamental OutputsOutputs of Capability of Capability
ResultsResults expected of the Conops ... expected of the Conops ...SIPOCSIPOCCritical Operational/Technical Critical Operational/Technical Issues…Issues…Measures Of EffectivenessMeasures Of EffectivenessMeasures Of PerformanceMeasures Of PerformanceIV&VIV&V
Rate of EffortRate of EffortPreparedness – both readiness & Preparedness – both readiness & sustainmentsustainmentInteroperability with other SoS?
Question/Observation: How many Question/Observation: How many Conops do you have/need, really?Conops do you have/need, really?
2UnclassifiedSETE 2011 Tutty
Technology / Systems Technology / Systems Readiness LevelsReadiness Levels
3UnclassifiedSETE 2011 Tutty
CAPABILITYCAPABILITY IDENTIFIEDIDENTIFIED
CAPABILITYCAPABILITYDEFINITION-ACQUISITIONDEFINITION-ACQUISITION
INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION INTO SERVICEINTO SERVICE
CAPABILITY MAINTAINEDCAPABILITY MAINTAINED
CONOPS / OCDCONOPS / OCDREQT DEFNREQT DEFN
00
Initial OT&E Initial OT&E
66
Acceptance T&EAcceptance T&E
55
INTRO INTRO INTOINTO
SERVICESERVICE
VEHICLE & SYSTEMS SPO(s)VEHICLE & SYSTEMS SPO(s)ACQN & SYST ENGACQN & SYST ENG
(Acft-Msn Cap – EDP / Sim Survey)(Acft-Msn Cap – EDP / Sim Survey)
22
CAPMGRCAPMGRORD MET?ORD MET?
Y / NY / N
Complex Capability Management ModelComplex Capability Management Model- Lust to Dust Methodology- Lust to Dust Methodology
LUSTLUST WOMB WOMB FISCAL REALITYFISCAL REALITY! ! CLEARANCE CLEARANCE CERTIFICATION CERTIFICATION ADOLESCENCE MATURITY TOMB DUSTADOLESCENCE MATURITY TOMB DUST
EXPERIMENT’NEXPERIMENT’N
11
Qualification T&EQualification T&E
44
ONGOING IN-SERVICE ONGOING IN-SERVICE Tactics, Techniques & ProceduresTactics, Techniques & Procedures
EXPERIMENTATIONEXPERIMENTATION
88
Developmental T&EDevelopmental T&E
33
CONOPS REQTCONOPS REQTACHIEVED &ACHIEVED &MAINTAINEDMAINTAINED
99
PPWWDD1010
4UnclassifiedSETE 2011 Tutty
Follow-on OT&E(s)Follow-on OT&E(s)
77
• F-111 – AGM-142 Demo and DMO F-111 – AGM-142 Demo and DMO win/fail/winwin/fail/win
• P-3 MU90 Light Weight Torpedo failP-3 MU90 Light Weight Torpedo fail• P-3 EO/IR SSHD & TCDL win/winP-3 EO/IR SSHD & TCDL win/win• Classic Hornet - JDAMER fail/winClassic Hornet - JDAMER fail/win• Classic JDAM/JDAMER/JSOW winsClassic JDAM/JDAMER/JSOW wins• Tiger ARH AGM-114 Hellfire winsTiger ARH AGM-114 Hellfire wins• Joint Fires (JTAC) and Danger Close Joint Fires (JTAC) and Danger Close
impact wins and future criticalityimpact wins and future criticality• Develop Spousal FoS CapabilityDevelop Spousal FoS Capability
SETE 2011 Tutty 5Unclassified
Proposed Case StudiesProposed Case Studies
• The power to achieve a desired operational effect in a nominated environment, within a specified time, and to sustain that effect for a designated period.
• Conops: To see, experience & change the world for the better (world peace / hunger / control (Pinky) solved) with a friend and lover until Death (Planned Withdrawal Date) with at least 2.6 children & with an online availability of daily missions …
FICS – Fundamental Inputs to Capability
- Driven by Conops, of course!a. Personnel: sensuous & sultry wife & fun kids,
wider families.b. Organisation: wife & family, decentralised
parents. c. Collective training: marriage, schools, Uni,
entertainment, Swingers Club ??. d. Major Systems: Home Ent, Cars, Computer
Avatar LVC Sim, Guns, power, ... e. Supplies: Alcohol, Food Markets, Financial,
contraception ... f. Facilities and Training Areas: House, Bar,
holiday home/caravan, shooting range. g. Support: social / financial / ETSA, Gas, water. h. Command and Management: Comms
essential (so I’m told), others?
FOCS - Fundamental Outputs of CapabilityThe Conops in User perspective ...Scenarios: ok be realistic nowSIPOC: ...RoE: key – average loving/sex / daily / weekly / monthly / yearly for some SEs?
Preparedness: readiness & sustainability?COI/CTIs: could be interesting to get agreement on these…MOE: Ops suitability & Effectiveness!, World Peace or World Hunger solved, kids in Uni/TAFE, Govt stable Pop/social/economic betterment
MOP: Min 2 kids Max 4... Other Perf measuresIV&V – should be interesting!Interoperability with other SoS: hmm…
6SETE 2010 Tutty Unclassified
Spousal Capability – a FoS parable!Spousal Capability – a FoS parable!
Girls
Boys
OUTCOMEOUTCOMEFemaleFemale – Male configurations that meet – Male configurations that meet operational suitability, effectiveness and operational suitability, effectiveness and
preparedness criteria!preparedness criteria!
The Right ‘Capabilities’Road
Roadmapmap
CAPABILITYCAPABILITY IDENTIFIEDIDENTIFIED
CAPABILITY CAPABILITY DEFINITION - ACQUISITIONDEFINITION - ACQUISITION
INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION INTO SERVICEINTO SERVICE
CAPABILITY MAINTAINEDCAPABILITY MAINTAINED
Traditionally seen as a System/SoS -> FoS, obviously
To see, experience & change the world for the better (world peace/hunger/control (Pinky) solved) with
a friend and lover until Death (the Planned Withdrawal Date) with at least 2.6 children &
with an online availability of daily missions …
LUSTLUST WOMB WOMB FISCAL REALITIESFISCAL REALITIES! ! CLEARANCE CLEARANCE CERTIFICATION CERTIFICATION ADOLESCENCE TOMB DUSTADOLESCENCE TOMB DUST
Affairs!
Spousal Capability – a FoS parable!Spousal Capability – a FoS parable!
2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2100
Girlfriend 2
2045 GOALS 2060 GOALS
YOD
DELIVERY
2030 GOALS
Wife 2
Girlfriend 1
2075 GOALS
Boyfriend 1
FOT&E / IOS - .7
SCOPE/R&D/ORD .1 / .2
PWDIOC
Increment / Spiral / P3I
You
Husband 2
2015 GOALS
LINKS
Wife 3
? FoS - to achieve capability others are involved in the ‘mission’ – messy, complex, real? Value of / How to experiment early with what you have – simulation & LVC, -> 2nd Life / avatars? Note that the Conops has more dimensions…
A / IOT&E - .5 / .6
IN SERVICE - .8 / .9
ACQUISITION - .3 / .4
Wife 1
Spousal Capabilities - Spousal Capabilities - coming sometime soon…coming sometime soon…
• Dear Tech Support,• I have upgraded from Boyfriend 5.0 to Husband 1.9 and I
noticed a distinct slowdown in the overall system performance, particularly in the flower and jewellery applications, which operated flawlessly under Boyfriend 5.0.
• Husband 1.9 uninstalled many other valuable programs, such as Romance 9.5 and Personal Attention 6.5, and then installed undesirable programs such as NEWS 5.0, NOMONEY 3.0 and FOOTBAL 4.1, Conversation 8.0 no longer runs, and Housecleaning 2. 6 simply crashes the system.
• Please note that I have tried running Nagging 5.3 to fix these problems, but to no avail.
• What can I do?
9UnclassifiedSETE 2011 Tutty
IT Support’s ResponseIT Support’s Response• DEAR Madam,• First, keep in mind, Boyfriend 5.0 is an Entertainment Package,
while Husband 1.X is an operating system. Please enter command: ithoughtyoulovedme.Html and try to download Tears 6.2 and do not forget to install the Guilt 3.0 update. If that application works as designed, Husband1.X should then automatically run the applications Jewellery 2.0 and Flowers 3.5.
• However, overuse of the above application can cause Husband 1.0 to default to Silence 2.5 or Beer 6.1. Note that Beer 6.1 is a very bad program that will download the Snoring Loudly Beta.
• Whatever you do, DO NOT under any circumstances install Mother-In-Law 1.0 (it runs a virus in the background that will eventually seize control of all your system resources) and DO NOT attempt to reinstall the Boyfriend 5.0 program. These are unsupported applications and will crash Husband 1.9.
• In summary, Husband 1.9 is a great, mature program, but it does have limited memory and cannot learn new applications quickly. You might also consider buying additional software to improve memory and performance. We recommend: Cooking 3.0 and Good Looks 7.7.
10UnclassifiedSETE 2011 Tutty
WarningA Flight Test Armament Engineer is a person who
passes as an expert on the basis of being able to turn out, with prolific fortitude, indefinite strings of
incomprehensible mathematical figures, calculated with micromatic precision from vague assumptions which are based on debatable figures taken from inconclusive data,
carried out through forms of problematic accuracy by persons of doubtful
reliability and questionable mentality about things designed to kill or negate targets and/or non-allies, for the avowed
purpose of annoying and confounding a hopelessly befuddled group of key personnel and who
may never read the damned reports anyway!
11SETE 2011 Tutty Unclassified
CAS & Experimentation CAS & Experimentation 3 Levels of Abstraction3 Levels of Abstraction
12Unclassified
V&V & ImplicationsQA
Structured Expirmentation/T&E of Systems for Joint End-Effects
Exp/T&E of SoS boundaries - Sellers Risk
Exp/T&E with FoS continuously - Buyers Risk
V&V & ImplicationsQA
Structured Expirmentation/T&E of Systems for Joint End-Effects
Exp/T&E of SoS boundaries - Sellers Risk
Exp/T&E with FoS continuously - Buyers Risk
Complex & adaptive - Family of SystemsLots of unknowns and unknowablesMission Level PICs & ‘ilities’ proven (sic) “FOS” ‘ilities’ are rare but WITH “Mission Expectations” -> adaptability?SOA / OSA predominate – but not commonContinuous measurement of MS MOE/MOP
Complex & adaptive - Family of SystemsLots of unknowns and unknowablesMission Level PICs & ‘ilities’ proven (sic) “FOS” ‘ilities’ are rare but WITH “Mission Expectations” -> adaptability?SOA / OSA predominate – but not commonContinuous measurement of MS MOE/MOP
Complex Adaptive - Cross Capability Engineered Integrated Mission Environment-Seeking understanding and adaptability of FoS Emergent properties at Buyers Risk!
Complex Acquisitions of FOSSynchronisation
Proven Config/Role/Environment (CRE) for EACH SoS in the FoS
“Rub Points” & hence all ‘Key Interfaces’ are identified
PICS Critical
Complex Acquisitions of FOSSynchronisation
Proven Config/Role/Environment (CRE) for EACH SoS in the FoS
“Rub Points” & hence all ‘Key Interfaces’ are identified
PICS Critical
Simple - ‘Traditional’ Engineered Systems- Mature COTS & MOTS ‘Heaven / Nirvana’ at Buyers RiskSimple - ‘Traditional’ Engineered Systems- Mature COTS & MOTS ‘Heaven / Nirvana’ at Buyers Risk
V&V & ImplicationsQA checks ’things’ from Contractor
Buyer must be aware of any/all cross dependencies with COTS/MOTS support and
updates
Systems – essentially Buyers Risk
V&V & ImplicationsQA checks ’things’ from Contractor
Buyer must be aware of any/all cross dependencies with COTS/MOTS support and
updates
Systems – essentially Buyers Risk
Straightforward ‘Simple’ Standalone SystemsNo Unknowns and No Unknowables!We’re buying something ‘other’ s working systemA Collection of Managed Things (ie. 5 apples & 3 bananas)No ilities neededNo dedicated training needed (ie known by Users)‘Metaphysics rules’ & all characteristics ‘thought to be known’
Straightforward ‘Simple’ Standalone SystemsNo Unknowns and No Unknowables!We’re buying something ‘other’ s working systemA Collection of Managed Things (ie. 5 apples & 3 bananas)No ilities neededNo dedicated training needed (ie known by Users)‘Metaphysics rules’ & all characteristics ‘thought to be known’
Simple AcquisitionsRare coordination
Buy each ‘thing’ OTS
CIOG & DSG space critical in Aust
What are PICS?
Simple AcquisitionsRare coordination
Buy each ‘thing’ OTS
CIOG & DSG space critical in Aust
What are PICS?
Complicated - Bounded ‘Systems Engineered’ Capabilities- Pick and maintain a model with agreed standards to measure and control system, or any SoS emergent properties, at Sellers RiskComplicated - Bounded ‘Systems Engineered’ Capabilities- Pick and maintain a model with agreed standards to measure and control system, or any SoS emergent properties, at Sellers Risk
V&V & ImplicationsQA
Structured Exp/T&E to verify agreed ‘ilities’, Training & TTPs
SoS – essentially Sellers Risk
V&V & ImplicationsQA
Structured Exp/T&E to verify agreed ‘ilities’, Training & TTPs
SoS – essentially Sellers Risk
Complicated Systems of SystemsFew unknowns unknownsBounded ‘Things’ with controlled connectivityEngagement ‘ilities’ & PICs specified & known but no “prescriptive” Mission Level MOE / MOPUsers need Training / TTPs developed on the new and/or unique Tools
Complicated Systems of SystemsFew unknowns unknownsBounded ‘Things’ with controlled connectivityEngagement ‘ilities’ & PICs specified & known but no “prescriptive” Mission Level MOE / MOPUsers need Training / TTPs developed on the new and/or unique Tools
Typical Complicated AcquisitionsMinimal coordination
Config/Role/Environment (CRE)
‘Isolated’ with few connections
Sub-systems can be simply acquired
PICS Important
Typical Complicated AcquisitionsMinimal coordination
Config/Role/Environment (CRE)
‘Isolated’ with few connections
Sub-systems can be simply acquired
PICS Important
JAIME CODEx ‘Tests’JAIME CODEx ‘Tests’TABLE 1. JAIME CODEx FRAMEWORK / TAXONOMY Draft v 0.7
Sphere of Influence of Actor / Problems with compatibility are usually all about the interface(s) / / CoBP has to be evidence based and have a ‘whole of life’, learning view...
Scientific / Engineering / Technical Discipline
Sub-Discipline
4D: Veh, Sensor, C2, Shooter, EW, Ranges ... Time ->
Lab / Virtual & Constructive
M&S Analysis – 0.-.-
LiveSystem
Gnd Test - 1.-.-
LiveSystemFlt Test
- 2.-.-
LiveIn-service Exercise,
Trng, R&M 3.-.-
Physical –Form and Fit
-.1.-
Fit of ‘Form’-.-.1
011110 (PreProd)
111 (101)
211 flexible struct on acft
and store?311
Physical –‘Victim’ – Safety
Structural & Environment-.2.-
Loads-.-.1
021120(141)121(131)
220(252) *221 (200)
321
Vibrations-.-.2
022122
(152)222
(221)322
Aero-acoustic-.-.3
023123
(152)223
(222)323
EMC / EMI-.-.4
024124
(154)224 324
HERO-.-.5
025125
(153)225
224 EW325
Temperature-.-.6
026126
(155)226
(223)326
Noise (Aeroacoustics)-.-.7
027 127 227 327
Physical - ‘Victim’ – SafetyAerodynamics,
Aeroelasticity, Captive Carriage, Flying /Handling
Qualities & Aircraft Performance
-.3.-
Aeroelasticity-.-.1
031130 (143)131(142)
232(210)
331
Take-Off, Handling Qualities,(+ W&B) & Landing (+Carrier)
-.-.2
032132
(120)230
(251) *231 (230 & 260)
332032 W&B (132) W&B
Perf’ and Drag-.-.3
033133
(142 Update) 233
(240)333
Endurance-.-.4
? ? 234 vs 200 (253) *
Physical -‘Victim’ – Safety
Employment & Jettison-.4.-
Separation-.-.1
041140 (144) 141 (110)
F’stream & Sep Coeff?241 (271)
(291 or 293?)341
Dispense-.-.2
042142
(162)242
(272)342
Gun Firing-.-.3
043143
(161)243
(273)343
Launch-.-.4
044144
(144)244
(274)344
Jettison-.-.5
045145
(144)245
(280)345 13UnclassifiedSETE 2011 Tutty
JAIME CODEx ‘Tests’JAIME CODEx ‘Tests’
Information- Function, States, Modes of Op/Delivery, Vehicle Level /
Role/Ballistics & OFP Validation & Verification
Note needs to cover sensor, C2 and shooter...
‘Source’ Mission Critical Rx & Tx ranges – 2D / 3D at various security levels
-.5.-This is where most
MOE/MOPs should come into play
Function – Comms – C2 IntraNetworks
-.-.1051 (Lab ?) 151 (Acft) 251 351
Function – Sensor System
-.-.2052
152(102)
DT EW / EMC ? 352
Function- Shooter Role – In-range envelope V&V
-.-.3
Ball 053 153
DT 255(292)
353
OT 255 +(294)
OT
0PGMs 1PGM 2PGM 3PGM
Function – DE ??? 054 154
Other Mission ???
Range ?? Y Y OT Y
FTS ??
RCS / Noise Signatures
Cognitive –System Level
Procedures V&V and Human Factors
-.6.-
-1 061 161 261 361-32 0632 1632 2632 3632-33 0633 1633 N/A -
-34 / Tacman 0634 1634 2634 3634Msn Planning
Tools06MPS ? 16MPS ? DT & OT 256 ? 36
EBO Tools 06 EBO? 16EBO?
Operator – 1472 & NEO HF
? ? ? ?
Social – ie pure SoS / focused on
FoS & especially C2-.7.-
MissionSOS -605th SOS – 605th SOS – 605th ?
TBMCS ... FOS? FOS? FOS ? ?...........
14UnclassifiedSETE 2011 Tutty
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