severe weather forecasting demonstration project in southeast asia
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Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project
in Southeast AsiaYuki Honda
RA II Theme Leader on NWP Systems and ProductsJapan Meteorological Agency
Munehiko YamaguchiMeteorological Research Institute
Special thanks to:Shunsuke Hoshino (MRI/JMA)
Mio Matsueda (JAMSTEC)Tetsuo Nakazawa (WMO)
• In 2009, the tyhoon Ketsana made the worst damage in Southeaset Asia. • After passing Phiippines, it hit Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia and Tailand.• The total loss of lives are about 700 and the estimated damage reachs
over about $700 million to $1.0 billion USD.
Flood
WindstormCyclones
Drought
14th Session of RA-II• 4.1.2 The Association noted that the Severe Weather
Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) has achieved significant results and benefits relative to the GDPFS and PWS programmes in its first regional project in Africa, and requested the Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction and Service Delivery [ref. XIV-RA II/Doc. 5.1] to consider developing a SWFDP RA II project as a method for enhancing the GDPFS and PWS and contributing to disaster risk reduction goals in developing countries, for example, those in Southeast Asia that have recently experienced disasters.
Workshop on SWFDP DevelopmentFor Southeast Asia
• Workshop on SWFDP Development For Southeast Asia (Ha Noi, Viet Nam, 2-5 Februrary, 2010)
– Chair : Edwin S. T. Lai (HKO) • Coordinator of Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction and
Service Delivery in RA-II
• CBS endorsement– 3rd meeting of Steering Group of SWFDP (Feb.2010, Geneva)
• recognized this arising sub-project and gave the highest priority to this sub-project with other 2 sub-projects.
– CBS Extraordinary Session (2010) (Namibia; Nov. 2010)
Target Severe Weather EventsThe following events are focused in order of decreasing
priority and associated hazards such as flooding, landslides, high waves and swell:
• tropical cyclone (both from the South China Sea and from the Bay of Bengal) track, intensity, structure changes and landfall process (wind and gust, rainfall and storm surge);
• heavy rain triggered by tropical cyclones, SW and NE monsoon, troughs and ITCZ migration, and orography;
• thunderstorms and hail associated with severe convection;• cold conditions and frost;• extreme hot and dry conditions associated with föhn effect.
Participants and Domain
Global Centres CMA JMA KMA
Regional Centres Hanoi (regional forecast support) Hong Kong (training and technical support) RSMCs Tokyo and New Delhi (Typhoon
/Tropical Cyclone forecasting support)
NMCs Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam
NWP/EPS Products
• Deterministic Products– Weather Charts on Specified Pressure Levels– Wind, Temperature, Geopotential Height, Humidity,
Precipitation, CAPE…etc.• EPS Products
– Stamp Maps– Probability Maps of Precipitation, Wind Speed and
Significant Wave Height (one or a few thretholds)– EPSgrams– Typhoon/TC Strike Propability Maps …etc. (EFI)
ProductDeterministic Forecast from Global ModelProbabilistic Forecast from Global medium-range EPS
How to see KMA NWP outputs
Synergy with Other Regional Activities
There are some on-going and planned projects related to NWP system and products.
• RA II Pilot Project on City-specific NWP forecasts
• JMA Pilot Project on EPS Products (EPS-WEB)
RA II Pilot Project on City-specific NWP forecasts
• 13th Session of RA II - to enable developing countries of RA II access NWP products;
• By the beginning of 2009, 18 countries had joined the Project; and,
• Hong Kong, China; Japan and the Republic of Korea provided forecast time series products for over 160 cities to 13 countries.
13
The products in JMA EPS-WEB are recommended by Manual on the GDPFS (WMO No.485).
• In addition to the web-site for public users, JMA provides a web-site for meteorologists and forecasters in foreign countries.
• The special forecast products derived from EPS are disseminated on the website, “JMA EPS-WEB”, supporting the activity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in Asia.
• The data in this website is available for operational weather forecasting in your countries.
JMA EPS-WEB
Synergy with TIGGE/GIFS in RA II
• CMA– Archive Centre of the THORPEX/TIGGE project– Store EPS products from 10 NWP centres every
day.
• MRI– North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC)
Ensemble Forecast (NWP-TCTEF) Project
• A WWRP-RDP project “North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) Ensemble Forecast (NWP-TCTEF) Project” intends to build on the TIGGE concept and take advantage of the TIGGE CXML data provided by multiple organizations for improving TC track forecast skill over the North western Pacific, starting from 2009, as a five-year project.
• The objectives of the NWP-TCTEF Project are:- to explore and develop effective ways of obtaining and utilizing the track forecast
data from TIGGE data providers to improve medium range forecast of TC track forecast
- to develop software for a real time multi-model tropical cyclone forecasting system from data transfer to verification
- to evaluate the utility of multi-model forecasts of tropical cyclones track predictions and provide recommendations on future multi-model ensemble systems and on future GIFS-RDPs
NWP-TCTEF Project
Tropical Cyclone Products - MCGE -Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Information Homepage (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/login.php)
by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of JMA
Multi Centre Grand Ensemble by TIGGE
Strike Probability Each Track
Send email to thorpex@mri-jma.go.jp to get ID and password
Tropical Cyclone Products – Each Center EPS -
Track predictions by each EPS are also available ParticipantsCMA
MSC
ECMWF
JMA-WEPS
JMA-TEPS
KMA
NCEP
STI
UKMO
Distance to TC center is plotted with box plots
Strike probability at specific time is plotted with bars
Strike Probability time-series at a city - 1-
Time
Select city
Time series of strike probability and the distance to TC center
Strike Probability time-series at a city - 2-The users can select a city to see the strike probability time-
series maps by multi-model EPS and each center’s EPS
192hr
Color Shading: Percentage of Members, which exceed 90 Percentile of Us
216hr
Case study for Vietnam Flood in Oct. 2008Genesis Potential using TIGGE
EPSgramCMC
ECMWF
JMA
NCEP
UKMO
Climatology based on Reanalysis data
CMA
MSC EMCWF
STI
JMA
KMA
NCEP
Meteorological Research Institute
Regional Centre Hanoi
National Met. CentresCambodia
Lao P.D.R. Vietnam
Thailand
UKMO
Multi-CentresGrand Ensemble
GIFS ProductsDailySevere Weather ForecastingGuidance
Feedback- Evaluation of usefulness in forecasting operation
Testify GIFS Products for
Operational Use
May Add One More CellTo Evaluation GIFS Products
A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EVALUATION FORM
- everytime after events-
Quarterly EvaluationsA summarized evaluation report every quarter
GIFS ↔ SWFDP
• GIFS producers will give additional research products from multi-center grand ensemble, which are proved valuable by scientific evaluation.
• SWFDP subprojects will return the feedback to GIFS producers with subjective evaluation of GIFS products for operational use.
Issues in Forecasting Operation
• Products Available Time– Products regarding Severe Weather may lose their
quality quickly as the forecast time goes.
• Coordination with Other Similar Products– NWP/EPS Products of Regional Centre Hanoi– NWP/EPS Products of Global Models from Each
NWP Center– And …
Typhoon Forecasts from Various SourcesTyphoon Ketsana (18/21 UTC 28 Sep 2009)
RSMC Tokyo
Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment
Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (US Navy)
Hong Kong Observatory
From BeijingFrom Beijing** WTPQ20 BABJ 282100 CCA ***** WTPQ20 BABJ 282100 CCA ***SUBJECTIVE FORECASTSUBJECTIVE FORECASTTY KETSANA 0916 (0916) INITIAL TIME 282100 UTCTY KETSANA 0916 (0916) INITIAL TIME 282100 UTC00HR 00HR 15.9N 109.8E15.9N 109.8E 960HPA 38M/S 960HPA 38M/S30KTS 550KM30KTS 550KM50KTS 110KM50KTS 110KMP12HR W 15KM/HP12HR W 15KM/HP+24HR P+24HR 15.8N 106.6E15.8N 106.6E 990HPA 23M/S 990HPA 23M/SP+48HR P+48HR 15.8N 103.3E15.8N 103.3E 1000HPA 15M/S= 1000HPA 15M/S=
China Meteorological Administration
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