september 2002 maybel jang, analyst (maybel@mindbranch.co.kr) worldwide mobile market atlas

September 2002

Maybel Jang, Analyst(maybel@mindbranch.co.kr)

Worldwide Mobile Market Atlas

Worldwide cellular users will increase from 907 million at the end of 2001 to 1.97 billion at the end of 2007.

Worldwide cellular penetration is forecast to reach 31% by 2006, up from 18% at the start of 2002.

W. European cellular user numbers will continue to slow dramatically post 2003, while N. America will continue to move steadily towards near-saturation within five years.

The lesser developed wireless regions of S. E. Asia, Central and Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe will all achieve cellular penetration in the 25-30% range by 2007, up from 14-19% at the start of 2002.

The current global market supporting GSM, CDMA, TDMA, PDC and a variety of analogue systems will consolidate around GSM/W-CDMA and CDMAOne/CDMA2000 systems, with the GSM camp remaining dominant overall

Accounting for 65% of cellular users at the start of 2002, GSM currently dominates the cellular industry. By the end of 2007, GSM/W-CDMA technologies will account for 77% of cellular users worldwide.

CDMA will enjoy strong growth throughout the forecast period, consistently adding 45-55 million new users per annum between 2003 and 2007. By the end of 2007 there will be almost 400 million CDMA users worldwide.

CDMA will control a disproportionate share of the 3G market. By the end of 2002, 22% of CDMA users will have a CDMA2000 1x or 1xEV 3G terminal, compared with just 0.2% of GSM users. By the end of 2007, 90% of CDMA users will have a CDMA2000 1x or 1xEV 3G

GSM-based 3G systems will only begin to show significant subscriber growth after 2004, though with almost 390 million W-CDMA and TD-SCDMA users by the end of 2007, CDMA2000 3G users will still account for more than half of all 3G users worldwide.

Key point Conclusions

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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

N America W EuropeS.E Asia CALAC/E Europe Rest of WorldTotal

Worldwide Users by Region

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10.0%

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40.0%

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90.0%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

N America W EuropeS.E Asia CALAC/ E Europe Rest of WorldWorldwide

Penetration

Worldwide Mobile Users and Penetration

Source: Strategy Analytics

Mobile Subscriber Growth Rate, 2000-2001

Subscriber Additions 1998-2001

Source: Pyramid Research

Asia Mobile Market

LatentPotential

AcceleratedGrowth

Maturation

VietnamMalaysiaPhilippinesThailandChina

Hong KongJapanKoreaTaiwanSingapore

IndiaIndonesia

What happened in 2000-2001 in Asia

Market Polarization and Changing Business Emphasis

Su

bscrib

er

Ad

ditio

ns

BusinessEmphasis

CustomerAcquisition

CustomerRetention

Vietnam

India

ThailandChina

Malaysia

Philippines

JapanTaiwan

Korea

Singapore

Hong Kong

Annual Subscriber Additions 1998-2006

Potential Mobile Market

Source: Pyramid Research

SystemsIntegrators

AndVARS

Infra-StructurePlayers

CoreApplicationProviders

(ISVs)

WirelessEnablingPlatform

AndSoftwareVendors

NetworkOperators

BusinessContent

DevicePlayers

Cap GemenlEDSIBMComputerAMS

SunCiscoIBMOracleNokiaEriccsonMotorola

MicrosoftSAPIMB/LotusSeibelPeopleSoftSalesForce.net

OpenwaveAetherIBMOracleMobileSignalSoftBlackberry

VodafoneCingullarTelefonicaVerizonT-MobileOrange

DatabasesMailing ListsBloombergHooversKelly BluebookActuarial Data

SymbolCompaq/HPIBMSierraNokiaSony-Ericsson

Wireless Enterprise Value Chain

MKT FIN HR OPS PURCH OTHER

Classic Business functions

Have clearly defined needs

More sales calls/week More reach per ad Faster competitive response

Reduced Inventory JIT Delivery Least Cost Routing

Employee Access to Policies Access for Suppliers Reduced Paper Trail

Reduced Service Outages Reduced Legal Liability Etc.

How do I achive this?

PIM / Share calendars Extend price / order / inv LBS to optimize dispatch

Service outage alerts JIT Delivery Etc.

What Appls & Where?

ERP CRM SFA Office Metro Global

Horizontal Functions Categorization

MMS, 2.5G 3G Mobile Internet

SMS I-mode, 2.5G Mobile Internet

Accelerated GrowthMarkets

Mature Markets

Applications Applications

ApplicationsApplications

NextGeneration

CurrentGeneration

Technology Foundations for Non-Voice-Based Apps

Source: Pyramid Research

I-mod Usage Patterns

Source: Strategy Analytics

Source: Strategy Analytics

Porting Content to Wireless

Video Audio

FunSecurity

Beliefs &Values

Always on…Always there Location Aware

DeviceAvailability

ContentCompatibility

DeliveryCost

Winning contentWill appeal to…

What value doesMobility add?

What roadblocksAre there?

Source: Strategy Analytics

Next Generation Services

MobileTo

Mobile

TerminatedOff-Network

(i.e. LongDistance)

RoamingMonthly “BillingOn Behalf Of”

(BOBO)

ContetnPurchase& Resale

Micropayment

Fina

ncia

l Lia

bilit

y &

Cust

omer

Ser

vice

Com

plex

ity

Voice

Data/Content

Number of Value Chain Players

Carr

ier

Exp

osu

re

Source: Strategy Analytics

Source: Strategy Analytics

Events

ShoppingCenters

Universities/ CollegesSupermarkets /

Dept Stores

Nightclubs

Cinemas

Hospitals

Airports

RailwayStations Conference

Centers

Road serviceStations

Hotels

Sports venues

Restaurants

Coffee shops

Holiday venues

MuseumsLibraries

The most valuable hotspot locations are those with high public footfall and the opportunity/time and need to carry out a WLAN session.

Footfall

Time for WLAN session

WLAN Footfall Segmentation

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