september 17, 2015 cuba standard is editor of · september 17, 2015 . agenda item 3.: presentation...

September 17, 2015 AGENDA ITEM 3.: PRESENTATION – JOHANNES WERNER, EDITOR,

CUBA STANDARD

Johannes Werner is editor of www.CubaStandard.com, the only independent information service exclusively focused on the Cuban economy and business in Cuba. Cuba Standard counts practically all foreign companies and entrepreneurs that already do business in the island among its readers, as well as many foreign embassies, members of the Castro family, the Cuba desk of the U.S. State Department and the CIA. One-third of Cuba Standard subscribers are based in Cuba and the rest spans the globe. Johannes Werner has been traveling to Cuba since 1999. He has worked for 20 years as a business/economic journalist in Europe, Latin America and the United States, producing award-winning articles that cover a wide range of beats. Johannes has a master’s degree in modern history and Latin American literature from Freie Universität Berlin.

Cuba is a very different country, and it will continue to be different

Cuba trade veteran Kirby Jones: ’Cubans are not in a hurry’ ’The government is not going to roll over’ ’U.S. corporations are not going to call the

shots’

Florida-Cuba ferries

Pre-D17: GDP comparable to that of Miami Five years of economic reform failed to

produce a spike of Cuba’s GDP Private-sector growth stalled Slow pace of negotiations at the Mariel

Special Development Zone

The pace of negotiations is accelerating

The pace of deals is accelerating

Mariel Zone: 120 commitments

The driver: U.S.-Cuba Normalization talks

Resumption of diplomatic relations

Some tangible results

The pace of talks is s l o w

Limited benefits for U.S. companies

But everybody else wants to be in Cuba before the Americans arrive

European ministers visit Cuba Japan’s foreign minister visits Cuba Closer relationship with China Very close relationship with Brazil Closer relationship with Russia

High-profile visits

High-profile visits

What matters most are the business delegations

Hundreds of corporations have sent their executives to Cuba to scout for opportunities or negotiate deals

Old projects suddenly materialize

Debt and credit: Cuba cleaned up its act and has been a good

borrower for the past decade, even through the 2008-2009 liquidity crunch

Paris Club renegotiation Export credit agencies from Spain, UK,

France, Japan resume or increase Cuba programs

Tourism

Hotel management contracts

Hotel construction

Golf projects

The crown jewel: Mariel

CMA CGM logistics hub

We expect GDP growth to take off this year

Long-term forecast for Cuba looks excellent Highly educated and entrepreneurial

population; Eager to try, optimistic; Location, location, location

And U.S. businesses?

Time to plan Time to scout and contribute (Caterpillar) Time to get into action (AirBnb, IDT Telecom,

Carnival Cruises, Norwegian Cruises, ferry entrepreneurs)

Take-Away: Any U.S. company that enters Cuba must: be aware that most business is not possible

immediately; be VERY patient; Have other expansion plans