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SecurityCrisis Management
Emmanuel FUCHS
Slides available at www.Elfuchs.Fr
Crisis Management
• Crisis• Crisis Management Process• Risk analysis• Crisis Management System
Crisis management system
Yes I start by the end !
Definition
• A crisis can be defined as any unplanned event, occurrence or sequence of events that has a specific undesirable consequence.
Crises examples
• Natural disasters, • Financial manipulation, • Pollution,• Terrorism,
Crisis management
• Coordination– Effective coordination of activities among the
organizations having a management/response role; • Warning
– Early warning and clear instructions to all concerned if a crisis occurs;
• Decision– Continued assessment of actual and potential
consequences of the crisis; • Continuity
– Continuity of business operations during and immediately after the crisis.
Crisis management planning
Event
Prepare Plan Execute Plan
Crisis management planning
• Develop– Policy, strategy, priority, controls.
• Test– Planning gaps.
• Train– Prepare staff.
• Maintain– Update, improve.
Contingency plan content
• Objective of the plan:– Continue normal operations, continue in a degraded
mode, abort the function as quickly as safely possible,
• Criteria for invoking the plan:– Local disaster, experiencing serious system failures,
• Expected life of the plan:– How long can operations continue in contingency
operating mode?
• Roles, responsibilities and authority
Contingency plan content
• Training on and testing of plans
• Procedures for operating in contingency mode• Resource plan for operating in contingency
mode:– Staffing, scheduling, materials, supplies, facilities,
temporary hardware and software, communications, …
• Criteria for returning to normal operating mode• Procedures for returning to normal operating
mode
• Procedures for recovering lost or damaged data
Crisis Management
• Crisis• Crisis Management Process• Risk analysis• Crisis Management System
Crisis management process loop
Preparation
Response
Rebuild
Mitigation
Crisis management process loop
• Mitigation– Long-term measures for reducing or
eliminating risk. (Risk analysis)
• Preparedness– Develop plans of action (command).
• Response– Activate and control on the field actors.
• Recovery – Rebuild and restart normal activities.
Process phase
Event
Risk analysis
Mitigation Preparedness Response Recovery
Crisis Management
• Crisis• Crisis Management Process• Risk analysis• Crisis Management System
Risk management
• The term risk management is applied in a number of diverse disciplines.
• Statistics, economics, psychology, social sciences, biology, engineering, toxicology, systems analysis, operations research, decision theory
Risk analysis
• Risk analysis tries to answer the questions:– 1) what can happen ?
– 2) how likely is it to happen ?– 3) given that it occurs, what are the
consequences ?
Risk analysis case
1800,0 mm x 2000 ,0 mm
15000mm
125
00m
m
3250mm
315
0mm
4600mm
Very Expensive Painting
Risk analysis case
• Vulnerability : no burglar alarm system• Threat : burglary • Countermeasure : install burglar alarm
Risk analysis case
• Value of the painting : 1000 euros• Value of the burglar alarm : 200 euros• Probability of burglary : 10%• Value of the risk : 1000 euros x 10 %
• Risk = 100 euros
Burglar alarm more expensive than the risk !
Risk analysis goal
• A procedure to identify threats & vulnerabilities, analyze them to verify the exposures, and highlight how the impact can be eliminated or reduced.
• Risk analysis goal:– To commensurate (balanced) security measures with
the risks applicable. – To establish where to invest security budget for the
best return.
Risk and uncertainty
• Uncertainty frequently impacts our decisions and actions.
• When we talk about risk, we mean the chance that some undesirable impact will occur.
• Hence, we normally seek to avoid or minimize risk.
Coin toss
• Two coin toss – That gains $50 or breaks even,
– That gains $150 or loses $100,
• The average or 'expected' outcome of both tosses is $25.
Risk impact assessment.In project management
• Risk impact is the effect on project objectives if the risk occurs, which may be a negative effect (threat) or a positive effect (opportunity).
• Risk is the effect “positive” or “negative” of an event.
Risk analysis in project management
• Risk probability and risk impact may be described in qualitative way :
– Unacceptable (red area)
– Acceptable, but risk reduction measures needs to be considered (yellow area)
– Unconditionally acceptable ie the risk is negligible (green area)
Risk analysis in project management
consequence
prob
abili
ty
Project risk managementID Risk Probab. Impact Preventive/Corrective Action
R01 Schedule slippage and slow progress in general
Medium High Strong project management and full commitment to the project from senior management within each partner organisation Application of management principles/tools proven in comparable projects
R02 Under-estimation of the required effort
Low Medium Monitor the planned versus actual effort per task. Early warning in quarterly status reviews. Timely team reinforcement
R03 Change of key-personnel Low High Standardising the way of working across the various teams. Definition of resources backup policy for fast compensation and substitution
R04 Unstable or inconsistent requirements.
Medium Medium Requirements changes impacts to be pointed out as soon as they arise. Early agreed requirements document
R05 Technical difficulties in harmonisation, adaptation and integration of software components
Medium Medium Early assessment of software risks. Early definition of standards, interfaces, conventions. Structured software development process
R06 The identified user requirements are not feasible within the scope of the project
Low High Manage the user requirements analysis process in order to ensure that expectations are realistic Clearly prioritise those functions that will be essential for the prototype
Risks evaluation
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
HIGH
MEDIUMR04R05
R01
LOW R02R03R06
IMPACT
PROBABILITY
Risk elements
• Event: what could happen?
• Probability: how likely is it to happen?• Impact: how bad will it be if it happens?
• Mitigation: how to reduce the probability and by how much?
• Contingency: how to reduce the impact and by how much?
• Reduction = mitigation x contingency• Exposure = risk – reduction
Types of risk analysis
• Quantitative risk analysis– The probability of an event occurring
– The likely loss should it occur. • Probability x likely loss
• Qualitative risk analysis – Focuses on the impact– Risk model
Qualitative risk analysis model
• Threats• Vulnerabilities • controls
Qualitative risk analysis model
• Threats– Things that can go wrong or that can 'attack'
the system. • Examples might include fire or fraud.
– Threats are ever present for every system.
Threats• Human
– From individuals or organizations, illness, death, etc. • Operational
– From disruption to supplies and operations, loss of access to essential assets, failures in distribution, etc.
• Reputation– From loss of business partner or employee confidence, or damage to reputation in the
market. • Procedural
– From failures of accountability, internal systems and controls, organization, fraud, etc. • Project
– Risks of cost over-runs, jobs taking too long, of insufficient product or service quality, etc.
• Financial– From business failure, stock market, interest rates, unemployment, etc.
• Technical– From advances in technology, technical failure, etc.
• Natural– Threats from weather, natural disaster, accident, disease, etc.
• Political– From changes in tax regimes, public opinion, government policy, foreign influence,
etc.
Natural threats
• Flooding, • Fire, • Seismic activity, • High winds, • Snow and ice storms, • Volcanic eruption, • Tornado, hurricane, • Epidemic, • Tidal wave, typhoon.
Technical threats
• Power failure/fluctuation, • Heating, • Ventilation or air conditioning failure, malfunction
or failure of CPU, • Failure of system software, • Failure of application software,• Telecommunications failure, • Gas leaks, • Communications failure, • Nuclear fallout.
Human threats
• Robbery, • Bomb threats, • Embezzlement, • Extortion, • Burglary, • Vandalism, • Terrorism, • Civil disorder, • Chemical spill,
• Sabotage, • Explosion, • War, • Biological contamination,• Radiation contamination, • Hazardous waste,• Vehicle crash,• Airport proximity,• Work stoppage (strike)• Computer crime.
Qualitative risk analysis model
• Vulnerabilities – Make a system more prone to attack by a
threat or make an attack more likely to have some success or impact.
• For example, for fire a vulnerability would be the presence of inflammable materials (e.G. Paper).
• Software Complexity
Qualitative risk analysis model
• Controls– Countermeasures for vulnerabilities. – There are four types of controls:
• Deterrent controls – Reduce the likelihood of a deliberate attack
• Preventative controls – Protect vulnerabilities and make an attack unsuccessful or
reduce its impact
• Corrective controls – Reduce the effect of an attack
• Detective controls – Discover attacks and trigger preventative or corrective controls.
Qualitative risk analysis model
THREAT Fire Software Error VULNERABILITY Presence of Flammable
materials Complexity
CONTROLS Sprinklers Extinguishers Design and development, standards, Change control.
Qualitative risk analysis model
Attack
Threat
creates
Vulnerabilty
Impact
Results in
eploits
Qualitative risk analysis model
Attack
Threat
creates
CorrectiveControl
Vulnerabilty
DetectiveControl
Deterrent control
Preventative control
Triggers
Impact
Reduces likelihood of
Results in
Reduces
eploits
Decreases
discovers
protectsTriggers
Risk management processEstablish Context
Identify Risks
Analyze Risks
Evaluate Risks
Opportunities & Losses
Likelihood & Severity
Ranked & Prioritized
Treat Risks
Crisis Management
• Crisis• Crisis Management Process• Risk analysis• Crisis Management System
Crisis management system
Incident management system
• Provide the pertinent, accurate information you need to make critical decisions.
• Deploy personnel, equipment, communication, facilities and procedures effectively and efficiently.
• Give access to information to plan, direct, coordinate and control resources.
• Foster collaboration and coordination with other command controlsystems.
• Deliver secure, dependable systems on time and within budget.
Emergency response organization
StrategicBig Picture
Operational
Tactical First Responder
Risk AssessmentPlanning tools
Environment(Urban area, weather)
emergency centers(Operative Level)
Higher level Response (Strategic level)
Low response Cell (Tactical Level)
Simulation Framework
Critical Assets
M&S SystemManagement
First Responders Units Resource Mgt(logistic, …)
Emergency system architecture
Crisis management schedule
The incident
Crisis ManagementReal TimeOn line
PreparationNon real timeOff line
incident response phase
Crisis management system functions
• Command and control– To provide the functions necessary to put multiple response and recovery plans
into action
• Communication and intelligence– To effectively receive and transmit information
• Coordination and documentation– To organize all of the steps taken to respond to an event and create a record of
those actions to protect employees, infrastructure and shareholder value
• Automated checklists– To ensure that response and recovery is complete for major functions
• Alert notifications– To sort and distribute messages so managers/commanders can track and log
multiple and varied notifications
• Media management– To inform the media about the progress the company is making toward normal
operations
CrisisManagers
PlansManagment
RessourcesManagment
EventsManagment
AlertsManagment
Check ListsManagment
Geographicalinformation
DocumentsManagment
Brieffing
Modelling&
Simulation
Emergency system architecture
Emergency system architecture
Geographical information system
geo-referenced information: information that is associated with a physical location
Common situation awareness• Annotations and markups• Data sharing and synchronization• Chat• Data acquisition • Geospatial collaboration• Asset tracking: blue force tracking, location-based
services• Decentralized data editing• Fusion of geospatial data• Neutral and trusted workspace• Sensor integration• Reporting• Web-based services
Distributed crisis management system
• All participants have to share information, make decisions and
deploy resources without being physically present in the same
place.
• Using web-enabled software allows participants to work from
their normal workstation, from home or from the field.
• Emergency plans and reports are available from any location.
• All information can be maintained in a central database that is
available to participants from anywhere in the world.
Web services based distributed emergency system architecture
Components
Services
ServicesOrchestration
EmergencyWorkFlow
Middleware
Transform
Use
Expose
Conclusion
Thank you for your attention
Questions are welcomeContacts :
Emmanuel.Fuchs@elfuchs.com
Slides available at www.elfuchs.fr
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