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Barbara Charry
Kris JohnsonEugene Yacobson
April 10, 2020
Science to Guide Floodplain Protection & Restoration in the Mississippi River Basin
Multiple Benefits of Floodplains
Successful Floodplain Projects
Floodplain Prioritization
Where to invest?
How do we scale up?
NEW US model• LISFLOOD-FP routes flows through
channels delineated by HydroSHEDS• Regionalized flood frequency analysis
• 10 return periods from 5 to 1000 yrs• Explicit representation of USACE NLD• Validated with FEMA and USGS data
(Wing et al. 2017)
5
US Floodplain Analysis
US Floodplain Analysis
US Floodplain Analysis
41 million people at risk
$5 TRILLION exposed
Wing et al 2018
US Floodplain Analysis
US Floodplain Analysis
54,000 km2 natural area in 100-year floodplain
avoided flood damages by 2070 >5x acquisition costJohnson et al. Nature Sustainability 2019
FPTool.org
Flood frequency
Spatial scale
Action type
Growing degree days
Nutrient loading
Flood frequency
Spatial scale
Action type
Restorable area
Restoration priorities: Nutrient focus
Switch spatial scale
Future population
Future flood damages
At-risk wetland species
More severe stresses to fish
habitat
Future population
At-risk wetland species
More severe stresses to fish
habitat
Future population
Future flood damages
Restoration priorities:• Has nonzero restorable acres• ≥50/100 for nutrient loading• In a TNC ecoregional assessment priority• Has at-risk wetland species• Relatively greater fish habitat stressors• At least ~10 ppl. in floodplain by 2050• At least $10K in damages by 2050
The FP Tool utilized on Missouri’s Meramec River
The Meramec River: A TNC Priority Ecosystem
• 1,000 homes, 100’s of businesses flooded
• Multiple Presidential disaster declarations
• 3 record flood events 2015-18
• 10 days of Interstate closures
The Meramec River
Lower Meramec River Multi-Jurisdictional Flood Management
Plan
• 70 river miles on the Meramec
• 25 river miles on the Bourbeuse
• 20 river miles on the Big River
Silver Jacket’s Lower Meramec Floodplain Management Plan Partners
The Lower Meramec Floodplain Prioritization Tool allows the user to identify opportunities for floodplain conservation and restoration. The tool is designed to help decision-makers optimize their investments and minimize the impacts of development.
Link to the FP Tool: https://maps.freshwaternetwork.org/meramec-floodplain/Note: The Tool is not compatible with Internet Explorer
Flood frequency
Spatial scale
Action type
Customized Floodplain Tool – Lower Meramec River
Environmental, Economic and Social Data
Water Quality
Floodplain Restoration Ranking Example
Restorable area
Restoration Rank
Habitat, Population and Flood Damages
3 Habitat Layers
Future Flood Damages, Social Vulnerability
Future Flood Damages
Topographic or Imagery
Structures in 1% Annual Exceedance Probability Floodplain
Floodplain Management Plan Environmental Hub Analysis1. Flood frequency – areas
with high flood frequency
2. Flood magnitude –areas experiencing significant (greater than 3 feet) flood depths
3. Structure density –areas with dense groupings of structures
4. Existing wetlands or open space – areas with existing open space or wetland land cover located within neighboring parcels
Floodplain Management Plan Environmental Hub Analysis
Floodplain Management Plan Environmental Hub Analysis
Barbara CharryStrategy Manager: Floodplains & Nature-Based Solutions
Barbara.Charry@tnc.org
Kris JohnsonDeputy Director: North America Agriculture Program
kjohnson@tnc.org
Link to Mississippi Basin Floodplain Prioritization Tool:http://FPTool.org
Link to the Lower Meramec Floodplain Prioritization Tool: https://maps.freshwaternetwork.org/meramec-floodplain/
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